Winterweatherlover

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

This may not be the pattern to get that.  You may need the pattern to completely break down and rebuild a new and better block.

I don't buy the December stuff as anything but coincidence, because the weather doesn't recognize "months"

I would rather put my eggs in the two months which are most favored to get big snows and that's January and February.  December isn't even a winter month here anymore.

 

Yes we seem to get more snow chances/snow in March in recent years than in December.  

Just now, the_other_guy said:

this is probably the most important piece of the 78 pages thus far.

 

guys are rooting for some sort of pattern change and major snowstorm that has yet to materialize. I was one of the first people to point out toward the end of November, that we seem to be in an endless cutter pattern…that I didnt like going into Dec 1.

 

each week we keep slicing off another piece of December.

 

winter isn’t done by any means. But what is becoming alarmingly clear to me is that prolonged cold and snow in December in New York City is almost impossible in this new climate. even the shot of cold air that follows the snowstorm coming next week is a shot.

 

and given that we are in a La Niña, if we don’t get something in December, coupled with the warm November… We are likely looking at a gutter ball of a winter in terms of average snowfall.

 

so hope something happens in the next 10 days… It’s really important for the winter ahead

 

 

I actually think this December has been better than some recent past ones. A lot of northern and western parts of this subforum have already seen 3 snow events. The snow did make it into NYC and the immediate suburbs last Sunday. I can't remember the last winter it snowed much in or near NYC before Christmas. 

1 minute ago, Blizzwalker said:

Like everyone, was getting hopes up for 12/22.  "Unreal pattern", "Perfect set-up", "Textbook KU 500", etc.

Now, I feel let down-- but not as much as I used to.  After decades, I'm getting better at appreciating tracking but not so invested that I'm a victim of the bipolar swings.

It hurts when the mega-storm evaporates-- but let us not forget the times that even in marginal patterns we can have big events emerge rather unexpectedly....hope something comes up.

WhileIt's not looking promising I am a bit surprised by how many people have decided the outcome is determined 6-7 days out.  

Just a miserable storm been 42 and raining and wind for 24 hours now.  

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Or until GFS eventually caves. Whichever comes first. 

The GFS didn't really cave in todays storm until 12 hours out so idk if I'd rely on that.  

I agree it's not great to be in the jackpot 7 days out but if the low was out halfway in the Atlantic I'd say we have a long way to go. Rarely do storms that are shown ramming into the great lakes end up trending to snow along or near I95 but realistically we are far enough out where I'd say give this another day before throwing in the towel.   

Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

Doesn’t that imply a trend towards the other models?

It may be too early to say anything is trending. I'm not feeling great about this one but its still far out. 

Just now, Brian5671 said:

No.  Mixed precip to snow....

Yea it's actually below freezing the whole storm from the city and points NW.

Ok after looking at the latest CMC/Euro runs I think I was wrong rain is a bigger concern than OTS. Having the gfs as the only model remotely close to what most of this subforum wants is not comforting.   

GFS OTS

CMC rain (was OTS at 12Z)

So yes a lot still on the table here.  

2 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Seems like there is no transfer between the two lows, losing the major storm.

986 off the Carolina coast still big storm potential but looks mainly headed OTS this run.  

Wave 1 is a coastal scraper on the 0Z GFS we'll see if there is a wave 2

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That by itself isn't so unusual. But what are the conditions in the high terrain east of the Hudson? What's a little unusual is that so far there's more snow at 800ft in NNJ than at 1200ft in eastern Dutchess and Columbia counties.

I still think it's a little unusual for a non fall/spring storm. At this time of year a coastal hugger usually buries places like northern parts of our subforum to  Albany.  I guess the combo of the cutter in the lakes and lack of a truly cold antecedent atmosphere made this elevation dependent. 

GFS was horrendous with precip types for this storm. CMC/RGEM was spot on.  

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

Oy pretty sure the word "superstorm" jinxed this storm.  

This has got to be one of the more intense west vs east gradient storms in a while. It looks like it's raining up to Albany along the hudson river while snowing in NW NJ. 

Way too far out but would be more worried about supresssion than rain at this point given the pattern and level of cold air in place but I could be wrong about that.  

28 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Just drove up from Harlem to Dutchess County.  Raining and 40 degrees down there and rain all the way to Putnam County then it stopped, temp dropped to 36 with light snow.  Got home and figured it would be a degree or two colder here but its 36 with nothing going on at the moment. Temps are pretty uniform from Westchester to up here.  I figured I might have a shot at snow as forecast highs for the entire week were incorrect and I stayed below freezing all week and of course today you can feel the difference. 

Unfortunately this was always going to be a difficult storm in terms of wintry precip east of the Hudson River. With that said there is some hint as the precip intensifies this evening that the rain/snow line may at least temporarily drag southeast.