Winterweatherlover

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

3...and the best part none of the 3 changed to rain and got washed away.

 

I agree the changing to rain stinks but what are we gonna do, it’s our best chance to see any snow it sounds like before March unless something else pops up on the narrow 1/27-2/2 window. 

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's very useless, we get dozens of these events with snow quickly changing to rain, it's like it never fell so it's absolutely useless.

 

In a normal winter I’d agree, in this winter seeing an hour or two of snow falling from the sky would be something lol. 

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unlike with recent storms going back to December, ensemble support has been increasing inside a week for potential measurable snow in New York City for January 25-27 (focus is on January 25-26). A big snowfall remains highly unlikely.

CMC/Ukie/Euro all start NYC as snow for that one. The high to the north should support the possibility of frozen precip at the start. Still far out though. 

CMC trended toward the Euro with storm 2, looks decent for interior parts of the subforum and the coast gets a couple of inches before changeover. That one is still so far out could definitely trend (either better or worse). 

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0z RGEM still showing all rain. Not even any snow for extreme northwest NJ on the RGEM. Even if a compromise happens between NAM and RGEM, the NYC area wouldn't get any snow. I'll be shocked if this one works out, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case the NAM is onto something. 

It is a little colder than 18z but only a little. 

0Z NAM still trolling. 

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

Zero was my call for NYC Metro back when the predict snowfall totals thread was created. Based solely on stirring the pot, which it did. Back to back wins 

Winter isn't over yet. 

44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Cancel February 

If the storm on 2/1 plays out the way the 18Z GFS is depicting I'd be ok with the rest of February being canceled. 

Hour 312 on the GFS, here comes our new fantasy storm..... 

18z nam in full blown trolling mode. 

10 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

if we can make it through this weekend and the euro still has snow coming for us it could be go time... maybe

Unfortunately I'd be surprised if the Euro is still showing the same thing tomorrow let alone by the end of the weekend. 

Kind of surprised the Euro is the model trolling us but Euro says you can keep dreaming next week especially inland

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011912&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Euro looks like gives ULL snow on the backend on Monday, doubt it happens. 

4 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

There is a coastal signal for the 31st on the 12z GEFS, although it appears to be too warm for the coast. This is the next threat after the 25th-26th, and possibly the only one that will occur during our brief "improved" pattern.

Thats how the two storms for next week started as coastals that were too warm/marginal for the coast and now they are cutting well inland. 

3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i dont but i saw some talk about it on here the other day, looked and i was like "oh boy! blue precipitation not green" now look at us

I'm starting to think the only snow we may see this winter is the blue on the fantasy snow maps. 

10 minutes ago, milleand said:

Just fun to look at I guess....

NAM on it's own, storm 2 has a better chance of starting snow in/near NYC imo than storm 1 but either way both storms are going to be washouts. 

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We usually get snow to rain events or a dusting to an inch events during bad winters. We can't even muster those little events.

 

Pretty sad 

I still wouldn't totally rule out a half inch of snow to rain for the Wednesday event but not really sure what would be the excitement of that anyway.  

Hope we get a surprise storm after 1/27, we'll probably have about a five day window with cold air for something to pop up.

GFS is basically a cutter now for storm 2 next week, even Buffalo flips to rain. Remember when this was a coastal on two models two days ago lol. 

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

37 and raining in Sloatsburg. Some winters find every way possible to snow, this one has found every way possible not to snow. Total non winter south of Orange County and even Orange has been hurting real bad

It gets worse and worse, that gradient next week is pushing toward western Ulster/Sullivan. Even Orange county looks like mainly all rain with both storms. 

2 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

insanely stupid far away fantasy land, but maybe, just MAYBE we can pull one off before January closes out. I didn't leave southern california to move back here and not get any snow...

1/27 to 2/2 seems to be the window of cold air so hopefully we get a storm, cold and dry would be a waste. 

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We can dream can't we....

The NAM is usually over amped in the long range so while I don’t expect that to verify weirdly that’s interesting. 

Euro starts NYC area 30-32 for storm 2, I believe the more south storm 1 is the colder it will be at the start of storm 2 and the better chance of significant snow near the coast.  

ECM Crushes interior next week but coast gets some fun from storm 2.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

If that continues then futility records are in play. Feb looks warm too on weeklies. Only thing that could muck it up is some March storm.  

Getting 0 snow is probably a long shot though but fingers crossed 

In some ways it would actually stink if storm 2 next week was an inch of snow to heavy rain and that’s what blew the record.