Winterweatherlover

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. To me this is an I-84 north WWA event, south of there? Not so much. The high is moving away, very marginal boundary layer, low cutting into Lake Erie, during the day, this isn’t screaming big front end dump south of I-84

I wouldn't be that surprised if the NYC area and North of I84 got similar snow amounts though because it will depend on where the frontogensis is ahead of the mid level warming and where/if that dumping band sets up. Whatever falls will definitely have a better chance of sticking around north of I84. 

Thats not me predicting big snow for NYC area, I don't see anyone seeing more than 1-3 inches in this subforum in this setup due to the mid level warming. 

The giants still had a great season, unfortunately some of the hype takes away from that. They were never in the Eagles class this year. 

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This is like Central Florida anticipating a snow event.

 

Holy shit guys…lets get a hold of ourselves.

It does feel that way but should we not be excited? This might be the first and maybe only accumulating snow we see all winter. 

40 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I don't think NYC's Central Park, will see measurable on Wednesday. I suspect it will be 45 minutes to an hour of sleet with a few big wet flakes mixed in then all rain. Same for locations on Long Island. The HP to the north is moving out quickly. 

WX/PT

 

Even if it snows they probably won't measure it properly as the rain will wash it away within an hour. I think at least 50% CPK sees at least 0.1 on Wed. 

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s showing the biggest dump of snow on the front end out of all the other global models. I’m skeptical but we’ll see. Verbatim, it has a plowable snowfall for Westchester, Bergen, Rockland on north and west. IMO it’s overdone

GFS and Ukie are kind of similar. CMC has basically nothing.  

12z Euro looks snowy on Wed around midday but I’m sure will continue to flip-flop. 

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Glimmer of hope yesterday and then it's all gone to shit today. Maybe elevated far N&W get a little front- and backside love like Walt describes. Could even be some wet snowflakes mixing in to the coast tomorrow at the end. Basically April. And no excitement for a cutter with a SLP to Ottawa and rain to Canada. Nothing of note in the pipeline until fantasy land. The long range looks slightly different than it's been but not particularly favorable. It's too far out to take seriously anyway. Low point of the winter for me morale-wise. We can almost see the end now.

The model flip flopping is annoying but I think Wed comes down to high placement, how intense precip is when it starts and how strong the cutter is. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

More front end

1-3 inches to 50 degree rain stinks but would at least be more interesting than anything we've seen this winter.

I'm still skeptical though that there is any meaningful snow on the front end.  

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Theme of this winter. NWS Upton has zero snow south of Orange County for tomorrow/Mon: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

Honestly based on latest guidance that might be underdone a bit but yea I get the theme in terms of where the gradient is.     

CMC- 0 inches for NYC Wed

GFS- 2.3 inches for NYC Wed 

Both models have it in the 50s later on in the storm. 

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models are deamplifying the storm when in the past they've made them more amplified at this range. 

I'm not saying it'll work out but that something to be mindful of 

Storm 1 is trending east last minute which is not something we are used to seeing. For most of us it just means a 36 degree rain but wonder if it will have any affect on storm 2.   

3 hours ago, snywx said:

Where are you located ?

Im in lower Westchester right near NYC so def not part of the HV but rooting for the HV to get a surprise tomorrow night. NAM looks good for the HV.  

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Some support. 18z HRRR. Also the 18z RGEM shifted in that direction. SNE likely to benefit the most. But I'm starting to believe elevated NWNJ through SENY might sneak a few inches on the back side. Elevation looks like it will help as lower boundary levels look slow to cool.

Yea I more meant showing a few inches for NYC with storm 2 and the fact it even shows NYC changing to snow at the end of storm 1. I definitely see positive trends North and West for storm 1 across the models. 

40 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Interesting trends with 18z/21 NAM and HRRR. See if it holds for entire I84 corridor. No pronouncement except a bit of snow coming to nw NJ.  Noting NWS has posted advisories for mostly just n of I84.

For those who like to verify models: here's two day CoCoRaHs Numbers.  Certainly not the GFS-GEFS finest day.  I'll think of this as a decent EPS/GEPS blend.  Imperfect modeling in the gradient but certainly a lot more than the GFS wanted to offer.

 

 

I have noticed all the models have trended more interesting for I84 corridor and points north with tomorrows storm. The secondary continues to trend east (surprisingly) which should help the I84 corridor.  

The 18Z GFS would be the best case scenario for both storms, right now it has no support so I'd lean toss.  

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not even going to go below freezing ..... where is this magical snow going to come from?

You may see snowflakes in the air but nothing will accumulate unless it's the same coating we saw with all the other events.

And did you see the track of that storm-- it's a Lakes Cutter!

At some point we have to stop looking at models and acknowledge reality.

 

It would be from WAA front end snow due to the high to the north. Either way I don't expect much of anything but that would be what would produce snow. 

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps mean 1-2 for the metro 

Admittedly I can get skewed by recent model bias but I’d be pretty shocked if nyc metro saw 1-2 inches on Wed at this point.

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Back to warm temps and rain at the end of the month on the Euro. So much for our better pattern late in the month. Nothing ever works out this winter. 

Time to enjoy this big football weekend and not waste any more time looking at these hopeless model runs. 

The pattern after this week looks worse than this week 

2 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Per the 12z Euro it's a possibility 

Yea if 0.1 is considered measurable I think theres a decent chance.  

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Difference with the euro today is less of a thump initially. So it cut back with lighter precipitation. It’s 4-5 days out so I wouldn’t get crazy yet about no accumulation 

Yes that is  going to be the key, does it come in thumpy or disorganized. The models probably won't finetune that detail until inside of 3 days.  

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah Euro and CMC both say we have a shot at breaking the record. Hardly any front end snow on those models. 

The storm is so awful i'm rooting for the record, would be more interesting than 0.10 washed away by rain. If it was like an inch it would be worth it.  

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah Euro and CMC both say we have a shot at breaking the record. Hardly any front end snow on those models. 

Let alone the fact every model has NYC at around 35-36 at the start of the storm, thats not a signal for accumulating snow midday.  Depends also if it comes in strung out and messy or like a wall, like a wall would provide some evaporational cooling. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Wednesday is not going to turn into a snowstorm for the area. While I believe NYC sees enough measurable snow to not break the 1/29/73 record, that one is going over to rain after whatever brief front-end there is

NYC is a lost cause, I think you MIGHT get an inch from the two storms combined in sloatsburg,.

Might actually have a better chance of a flip to snow on the backend of storm 1 in say Westchester and Rockland than any meaningful frozen precip from storm 2. 

The models not trending in the right direction for Wednesday. I wouldn't be surprised if there is no accumulation south of the Tappan Zee.