Winterweatherlover

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS being where it is for Wed/Thurs is a bad sign IMO. You want to see it suppressed and OTS and a miss at this range. It almost always corrects further west as you draw closer to the event. If there’s a further west correction from where it is now, that’s not good

That’s a good point and beyond even the gfs I can’t think of too many storms that ended up a coast snowstorm that didn’t have several runs of models showing OTS. 
 

Id be pretty surprised if either storm next week is a coast snowstorm although wouldn’t rule out some frozen precip to start especially NW of the city. 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

All in all, IF that northern stream low didn't dominante and become historically strong, that follow up wave could have easily hit us and instead of looking at History for CPK it would be a run of the mill ratter. 

Shows how little nuances can cause such drastic changes

 

It even snowed on cape cod over the weekend. It takes a lot going wrong to not get any snow all winter even in a bad pattern but NYC may find a way the way this winter is going. 

27 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Looks like the 12z GFS run has next weeks systems shifting further east from the 06z run. Subject to change of course. 

The 12z gfs did shift east but it’s really now just in line with other models. Honestly the model agreement of the two storms next week is pretty good right now and they look almost identical except the second one starts out a little colder. 

2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think our best chance is still the 25th-26th. There's more cold air around and a slight shift in track to the south and east would put the low pressure out over the ocean close enough to yield some significant snow to much of the NYC Metro Region. Still the odds are against it happening as the models all at this point depict a rainstorm here with the track of the low over us or to our north and west. But as I said yesterday I think this is the one to watch.

WX/PT

Agree that one has the best chance although more likely warm/wet than frozen. 

Ukie is so flat and far southeast that the NW parts of the subforum barely get any precip, thats what it would probably take for the coast to get snow in this pattern.  

Ukie has snow on Monday. Came Southeast. Didn't expect that which makes me wonder what Euro will do.  

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

To me, the problem is that every wave takes the same path: CO to IL to Ontario. The upper levels drive SLP formation, which in turn drives fronts and airmass advection.

The early week storm looks to originate in the south unless you think the models are correcting toward establishing a more dominant primary low in the lakes?  

At least the northeast ski areas would finally get replenished

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011800&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Could very well be. But the 0z was a slight step back from 12z in terms of wintry hopes locally. The trof has sharpened up, strengthening the primary SLP and increasing warm SW winds.

Not the 0z I was hoping for.

I don't expect wintry weather for the immediate metro with storm 1, but I think the NW parts of the subforum have a chance. Storm 2 I'm not even going to begin to guess precip type this far out.

44 minutes ago, eduggs said:

For the moment, I'm firmly of the opinion that the Sun-Mon event will be rain for the coastal plane through our area. I don't like the trough axis being so far west - it virtually guarantees a primary slp near the Lakes. This looks too much like so many events so far this year.

That said, there is some counter evidence to potentially threaten the narrative. The 18z ICON, 12z UK, and 12z CMC were all pretty close to a wintry event. The 12z EC wasn't too far off. And the 12z JMA looked like a snowstorm. So far the 0z ICON shifted slightly the wrong way. But any additional movement SE and/or colder for the rest of the 0z suite would put us close to the game.

0Z CMC is a coastal hugger, only the gfs has a low in the lakes.  Starting to think coastal hugger or slightly inland runner  is most likely outcome here. 

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

 There is little to nothing to support that presently

There are a lot of storm threats but hopefully one of them is cold enough. 

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Early on some model runs teased us with this thursday's storm, but of course it's ending up warm. Same for the sunday into monday storm, but now all models give us rain. I'm guessing it's the same thing for the day 9 storm now, and it'll trend warmer as it gets closer like all other storms this winter. But of course we'll keep an eye on it just in case. You never know for sure with weather. 

The good news is that it appears likely that we're finally gonna have a cold pattern for a little while (maybe a week) late in the month after that potential day 9 storm. Hopefully finally having some extended cold will give us a better chance of scoring. It might not work out, but at least it gives me a little more hope right now. 

The Sunday-Monday storm is still pretty different than what we've been seeing (cutters and rain to Montreal) at least as of now the NW parts of the subforum are still in play with that one.  

The coast's chance is maybe 1/26, CMC/Euro both show it but so far out. 

Looking at todays 12z runs I'd feel pretty good if I lived near Albany for Monday but also know it could trend toward Minnesota.

39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie also is a hit for the interior. A few inches just north and west

I see that as well. Interested to see what the 12Z euro shows. 

12Z CMC trolling today (has 2 storms for our region). 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011712&fh=228&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

This may be a shot from the ECMWF.

Maybe our friend SE ridge can flex and give us a light event?

This is probably the storm the CMC now has as a hit. The CMC is a little inside the benchmark so if the Euro and CMC met toward the middle it might be a needle threader. Obviously a longshot.   

CMC now shows a coastal next Monday like Euro had been showing, it's still rain for the coast though, looks good for interior. 

41 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Good luck getting that to work out without much cold air in place. The other models have rain, which makes more sense considering the pattern and what has been going on. 12z Euro also has another big rainstorm wednesday next week. This pattern is extremely ugly with rainstorm after rainstorm likely. 

The other models have an inland low so of course they'd be rain. It would absolutely be threading the needle but if the Euro depicition of a sub 1000 low tracking off shore is right cold air shouldn't be a big problem once the storm is cranking.  

ECM has now shown a coastal storm 4 straight runs for next Sunday-Monday timeframe. Obviously I don't trust anything this far out but this is the best look we've had in a while from the best model. 

Looks like some wintry weather may return to the interior parts of the subforum this week. The coast just seems such a lost cause unless the Euro is magically right with a coastal next Sunday (and even that looks very borderline cold enough for the coast).   

5 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

lets see what the 18z GFS has in store for those 2 systems. I have heard that the 6z and 18z aren't as accurate due to not accounting for certain upper level dynamics but that could be total BS. someone who knows more than me (literally anyone on this forum) please inform me. I feel like a lost puppy reading some of these scientific replies but I love it

18Z GFS warm with system 1 but honestly it looks nothing like either the Euro or the CMC. No cutter but a weak wave tracking across PA. 

5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

I don't think we've had a single meaningful threat survive to the D7 mark (168 hours) this year. The Christmas bomb was clearly cutting by that point and today's threat was a goner after a few interesting runs last week. 

Personally I'd prefer it like this, at least I'm not losing sleep staying up for the Euro for rain events. I don't know if the models are getting better or the pattern is just so horrible that they haven't even been able to tease much this winter. That's why I'm curious what happens with the storm Thu-Fri to see if the models still show something interesting inside 144 hours.   

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

It's just so boring, I mean there has literally been nothing to track at all (within a week or so anyway).  I cannot remember any winter with nothing trackable by mid January (whether or not anything worked out).

There are finally some threats to track at least but still kind of fantasy range, although the storm for late next week is at least trackable for now.    

Euro/CMC/GFS all have >3 inches of snow northwest of I287 in the next 240 hours

CMC/GFS have >3 inches of snow from the city north in the next 240 hours.

We'll see if winter is coming back or models are teasing.