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Winterweatherlover

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Posts posted by Winterweatherlover

    2/28/23 storm threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

    NW NJ and areas north of White Plains—maybe even White Plains—will likely be closed.

    I can see Westchester schools closing or at least delayed even south of White Plains if some of the short range models are right. 7 am may be very rough travel. 

    2/28/23 storm threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

    Euro once again too cold in a SWFE 2 days out but hopefully the front end thump idea happens. 

    Probably a burst of heavy snow 9 pm-1 am or so, then on and off sleet when light vs snow when heavier until morning north shore/Northern NYC and on and off sleet and light rain south shore/southern NYC. Probably everyone in the metro flips to light rain/drizzle tomorrow morning before ending.  

    2/28/23 storm threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    May not start until around 9 pm looking at some of the more recent models which would help in terms of cooling after sundown before moisture arrives.  This seems to be one of those events where everything is sort of aligning in the right way. 

    2/28/23 storm threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

    Nice thump of snow on the Euro. Everything appears to be on track for tonight, but we'll be nowcasting as jm1220 said. 

    Nothing much has really changed except maybe higher confidence in >2 inches of snow from CPK northward due to increased moisture. The borderline areas are still borderline but I think the more thumpy it comes in the more it will benefit everybody . 

    • Like 1

    2/28/23 storm threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

    Honestly - I would not be surprised if WSW are pushed further south this evening or overnight (as the storm begins). There is a significant amount of energy with this system and High Res models continue to show rather strong h7 dynamics. 

    Starting to get November 2018 vibes a little with amounts increasing more and more as event approaches but also vary this could still bust low too. 

    • Like 2

    2/28/23 storm threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

    HREF essentially a carbon copy from 0z-4-6” for most of the city and LI, 2-4” extreme S shore, 6”+ for most north of the city. A little surprised. Hope it’s right. 

    Hope it’s right. Would be amazing to get 6 inches here, might even last until Wed. 

    March 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


    It’s called being realistic, not negative. Is it going to get cold relative to March averages starting on 3/10 and beyond? Yes, if the models are correct. Is there going to be a parade of KU’s up the coast a la March, 2018? Incredibly doubtful

    Ok you are right about that but I haven’t seen too many people predicting that except maybe one or two posts. 

    March 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    what about the Friday into Saturday storm? I am seeing our local media outlets predicting snow now and temps in the 30s.

    Should see changes in the forecast after the 12z euro comes out. 

    • Like 2

    March 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

    Enjoy whatever you get tonight/tomorrow morning. Those hoping for a big winter comeback 3/10 through the end of the March are probably going to be very disappointed. March, 2018 isn’t walking through the door

    We are getting our biggest snow of the year tonight and you are still being negative. I haven’t seen too many people predict  it’s going to be a  March 2018 repeat. 

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1

    2/28/23 storm threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

    It’s maybe a little better for the immediate coast since winds veer more easterly then ENE into the event but if the snow breaks up, could be dealing with 35-36 and trying to restart the snow/accumulate which will be very hard. Eventually warm mid level air probably will make it in which means it goes to sleet or more likely rain. That’s why these maps showing the N to S shore accumulation contrast make sense. On the N shore and just inland temps are near freezing or a little above which makes accumulating a lot easier. 

    I specifically posted RGEM because it has slight warm bias but usually pretty good with temps. Factoring in wet bulb my guess would be 32-33 North Shore/Northern NYC and 33-35 South Shore/Southern NYC during height of precip. 

    2/28/23 storm threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

    Seems a shame that an event like this, that will likely be all melted by storm's end, will end our bid for the least snowiest winter...

    Its kind of both a pro and a con that it's happening at night. Night time should definitely help with accumulation at this time of the year but also most of us will miss out on seeing it snow and it'll be mostly gone by tomorrow afternoon (maybe tomorrow morning along the immediate coast). 

    March 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

    Bring on the torch and end this embarrassing winter

    This was never really going to be our storm unless we got lucky with the blocking squashing it, but spring isn't coming yet, the favorable period for wintry weather is more so mid month. 

    • Like 1

    2/28/23 storm threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

    Well if it's 42 at 5pm it's going to be hard to start as snow even if it drops to 35 immediately.  I'm just saying we could lose a little bit at the start

    Fair point. Should still probably start snow though but won’t accumulate unless it’s like 36 or lower. 

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