Winterweatherlover

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Anyway: I hope we don't get shut out interior.  Seems like we should get some ice or snow. I noticed the 12z/18 UKMET has a little slug of snow for the I84 corridor later Thursday. That could be ptype problem and not converting partly to ice?  A decent band of FGEN shows on the Pivotal website at about 102-108 hours both 850 MB and 700MB and its subzero at those levels so we may have a chance small accumulative snow inland nw-n-ne of NYC??

That's me--- still holding onto hope. 18Z RDPS did not post anywhere as far as I know as of 435PM... definitely late. 

Definitely still possible to see some front end frozen well inland although with the east wind situation again probably gonna be hard within 50 miles of the coast. 

I feel like we go through this every winter with the big expectations and then the doom and gloom. The reality is it doesn't usually snow much before January in our region, it almost always warms up sometime around Christmas and it snows from time to time but not that often in this area. I don't think winter is over.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It does

The models are showing precip just as the cold rushes in.

And then it just stops when it hits NYC and points NE? 

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No snow anywhere near us

 

I can’t totally read the Ukie map but based on the 0 line verbatim looks like snow for NJ at hour 144 so maybe that’s where it’s coming from? 

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Probably a mix

Must be a mistake unless there is a storm between hour 144 and 168? Pivotal showing no accumulation in the same region. 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Ukie well east

 

Congrats buffalo

From congrats Chicago to congrats Buffalo is some progress. Probably won't matter for us but we continue to track. 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah it's better but still has a lot of work to do. 

At this point I think the odds of an I95 snowstorm are pretty low but just hoping for front end or back end snow. 

CMC very improved 

Ok I'l give it was about a noticeable east shift but we still need about another 500 miles.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nope still a cutter but slightly east

It came a little east but still not close for our region. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs might pull us back

Not really seeing any major changes yet.  

NYC 20"

ISP 22"

EWR 19"

SWF 30"

MMU 25" 
 

Bored so predictions: Better chance of NYC getting 1 inch of snow or hitting 60 degrees between now and 12/25? 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon trended towards it and the gefs has been steady.

Need euro or cmc to look different by 12z tomorrow or this one is over imo. 

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

The GFS evolution gives me over a foot so I'm rooting for it hard just like I am for Zach Wilson this Sunday although I think that neither is very good. 

I can’t think of a time the gfs has ever won when it’s been on its own. 

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Seems very sloppy/disjointed. The early digging trough brings up lots of warm air on the east side and it seems like some kind of primary running up the Apps helps ruin it. An offshore low does congeal eventually but the airmass is ruined by the early digging trough and retreating high. Same lousy outcome here as today pretty much-there would be a strong easterly wind off the ocean. At least the preceding airmass is cold enough that there would be some snow to start but it would be a fast change to rain on the coast/city.

Not saying this will happen but that's what this run verbatim would lead to.

I think at this point you’d have to take the gfs solution and run with it. Heavy burst of snow to rain back to snow. Way preferable to the more likely outcome of another windswept rainstorm. 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

CMC has the strongest arctic front we've seen in years. From 60+ to single digits in 12-18hrs along with 50-60+ gusts

That probably won’t happen. It usually moderates especially near the coast as we get closer to the event. 

Not good that cmc held serve. 

I don’t know what the gfs is doing looks nothing other models or it’s last run. 

I’d give it until tomorrows 12Z runs before totally throwing in the towel. Something like a secondary forming or CAD being stronger than modeled could still give parts of the sub forum (especially interior) some frozen precip. 

Random question but figured this would be a good place to ask does anyone know of any sites where one can bet on the weather?  

32 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

Once a cutter, always a cutter. Even one warm run usually tells the story. This far out you want a whiff, and then it works its way west. 

Not always I've definitely seen the models be too overamped in this range but 2 straight runs plowing into the lakes from the 2 models I trust the most is a pretty bleak sign. 

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

The cutter solutions this far out often stick to verify because there is so much geographical freedom, possibilities for warm, rainy solutions...... 100 miles west or 1000 miles west or anything in between. For a snowy solution, you have such limited margin for error with track.  

This is a really great point. I know we often say when it's a cutter the solution locks in a week out but snowstorms always come down to the wire but what you said is very true. Whether a low goes over Chicago Detriot or Pittsburgh it really makes no difference to us and we won't notice. The GFS is still like 700 miles SE of the other models but who really cares in this subforum. 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Rain should be banned during the winter 

The best way to do that is move to places like Northern Maine Adirondacks Minnesota etc. NYC is not a good spot for this. 

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I'd be fine with this "pattern" breaking down, it has done nothing for us for the most part outside of some N and W areas

Yea I think I read the other day sometimes you need a huge cutter to break the pattern. I still wouldn't be surprised if the storm next week ultimately transfers to a secondary similar to today not that it would really help many people on here.