Winterweatherlover

Euro is a full blown cutter for the late week event but does have a threat on 1/22. 

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Which is why I'd be very skeptical of any model run that shows thursday's storm giving us any accumulating snow before changing to rain. It's going to be 50 degrees on wednesday before the storm. Hard to get a front end dump when there isn't any cold air before a storm. 

Yea I think it snows or ices in the interior within the next two weeks, the coastal plain I'm more skeptical of, have to see how strong the confluence is.     

50 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'd take those OP GFS and CMC runs through the end of the mid-range. Couple of wintry threats there. Ensembles say these likely end up weak, dampened waves or cutters. Let's see if the EC shows any movement in the same direction.

I'm sure if it ends up more south it will be more flattened and weakened but at this point I'd take a weak 1-3 inch storm.  

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's amazing how we can't even see small events this winter. 

Even during horrible winters we see a coating to an inch before a change to rain.

It's unbelievable 

Hard to get snow to rain when the temperature never goes below 32.  

CMC/gfs both trended way colder and now show some snow for our region with the storm late next week. 
 

Probably won’t happen but at this point desperate enough to track anything. 

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

good pattern for cold or snow?   I don't think the snow part is written in stone-could be cold/cutter/cold/cutter pattern

Yuck that is the worst. 

7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Both the CMC and Euro show something interesting at the end of their runs. May be fools gold but I'm still watching the last week in January. 

The fantasy storms showing up again I think is a good sign, we weren't even seeing that on the models in a while (especially if its showing up on models other than just the gfs).     

Honestly this threat is probably the best look Eastern CT and Eastern LI have had this winter, almost every model except the gfs seems to get precip to the twin forks. 

Admittedly I'm probably paying attention to this more than I normally would because of how horrible this winter is. 

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't you think it's a bit naive to assume any of that will play out given it's 10-14+ days out at the minimum. 

What we've seen thus far this winter is that the -PNA always corrected stronger and the WAR ridging trended stronger as a result. I don't suspect that will change.

Ssts are off the charts too off the New England & Atlantic coast further enhancing that probability 

Also what are the odds we rat the rest of the way and NYC sees 0 snow for the first time in recorded history. 

Hard to see NYC going 0 snow with such a warm and dynamic ocean just to our right. Whether it hooks this weekends storm west or not, eventually one of those storms in the atlantic is going to be a hit.  The ocean influence can destroy winter precip on the coast but can also be a savior, just need one big hit.      

12Z Euro actually getting real close for Eastern LI

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2023011212&fh=72

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

IMO the most likely way for Central Park to score a half inch or more in a la Nina setup is something similar to the below. Not saying this one, however an overrunning event. Usually occurs with an RNA and some semblance of blocking (50/50 low for instance). 

A typical la Nina pattern in February WITH BLOCKING has historically produced snowfall in this way.

12Z run went warmer, these setups sometimes work out for decent front end frozen in the interior parts of our region, rarely on the coast unless there is a true artic airmass in place. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

No way! The GEFS didn’t agree with that asinine op run

You don't see this verifying lol?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

I remember crossing the bridges from Long Island and it would be like another world at times. No snow on Long Island but piles of snow and at least some snow on the ground as you got off the Island. This would happen most often in December.

Same as a kid I remember bare ground in the city and once you hit Westchester there was snow cover and by the tappan zee significant snowcover. Thats why I always thought the rain/snow line sat near the city in most storms. I think now with the new climo the boundary layer rain/snow line seems to have moved NW to Orange/Putnam and points NW.

The coast definitely cashed in bigtime early 2010s from all those strong coastals.     

Doesn't get more threading the needle than this for most of the subforum. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=225&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

24 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Still a little hope for Sunday as  both the GFS and CMC have a storm developing on the offshore front. To far east to affect us, at this point.

It's definitely a long shot but rather too far east than too far west at this range. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

everything is cause and effect, there is no true "randomness"

in AGW extremes get more extreme so we expect both much snowier seasons and seasons with very little snow.

and that's what we've been seeing for the last couple of decades

 

Seems we haven't had a much snowier season in several winters now but I guess its balancing out for the early 2010s. 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Not bad luck, the atlantic was too warm

 

Yea the same pattern in February should be ok as the atlantic would be colder.  I'm not saying big snow but at least should be more interesting.  

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In the last 26-30 years winters have not had many incidents outside of El Nino where Dec/Jan are bad and Feb is good...we have seen many cases of bad Dec good Jan bad Feb in neutral or Nina...88-89 I guess would be closest thing to this winter so far in that Dec 88 was okay but we just could not get anything to work, Jan 89 was awful but we got a fluke snow event then February was somewhat cold but again we could not manage any snow 

Was December really that bad though? Verbatim snow in NYC was low but the pattern wasn't too bad, just some near misses.  

Looks like CMC lost the backend wave Sunday-Monday, I'm not surprised.  

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

At least the 12z gfs was warming up for summer with an east coast landfall threat

 

 

 

 

Amazing how far into the Canada the rain gets. 

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Every major midrange model - UK, CMC, EC, ICON, NAVGEM - with the GFS as the only exception, gets snow into or near our region on Saturday. That's 5 days out.

It's a tenuous setup for sure, but it's something. I haven't looked at individual ensemble members, but I'd suspect there are a few that drop significant snow for our region.

Its got a chance but would be extremely thread the needle and would probably favor the catskills to New England region. I don't really care that the gfs doesn't show it but I'd think it's more of a real threat if the other models hold onto it 24 hours from now.   

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What Cosgrove actually said

 

I agree still two months left of meterological winter, it will snow at some point. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’m still waiting for all the snow and cold you said was coming back in November. I had more fake snow under my Christmas tree than we’ve had in 3 months

December wasn't that bad of a pattern, just a lot of bad luck near the coast but places in the NW parts of the subforum did decently. 

I cant remember a winter where we've gone this many weeks without any real threat and nothing on the horizon anytime soon. At least the models are getting better I guess at not getting our hopes up.   

3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Looks like an Endless Temperature Loop.      How do you get a snowstorm when the T figures to spend just a few hours out of the next 384 below freezing?

Need a sub 1000 low tracking to the southeast and ideally a high in place (although not absolutely essential in January).