Winterweatherlover

I mean I lean suppression in this case but I agree you'd rather have the storm track where it is now 5-6 days out then be in the jackpot zone. 

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'd go with AI models

I wouldn't latch onto any models this far out, more so focus on the pattern and then model specifics inside of 120 hours. 

Given the pattern and depth of the cold I'd favor suppression for next weekend over a big hit here but we'll see. Hope I'm wrong.

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Biggies are coming 

If they do, they do but I'd rather the nickel and dimes then waiting on the KU event that never comes.

Really nice outside, Nothing heavy but more powdery then i expected given surface around freezing, I guess that's due to the cold 850s? 

It's snowing, it's sticking it's winter like outside def will take it. Yesterdays snow was way more exciting though.

Finally steady snow has resumed. At this point I'd be happy with a quick 1-3 inches.

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s still snowing nicely. Snow on ground. Why are people complaining 

Not complaining since I think this has been a nice weekend overall but most places aren't snowing right now lol

Just now, Brian5671 said:

New nams are not great-only 1 to maybe 2

The classic last minute east trend, congrats eastern LI.

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

for once i agree with you lol.   2-3 for most tonight-take it and run

Honestly i'd be fine with 2-3 tonight on top of what we have. A bigger storm would be nice but with a cold week ahead a grassy snowpack of 5 inches or so is nice.

I think overperformer maybe for eastern areas like eastern LI and eastern CT. Everywhere else probably not. 

19 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

It literally snowed and stuck at 33 even in manhattan yesterday 

Yea it depends on the rates, the correct thing is generally if it's 32 or warmer with light precip you won't get good accumulation in the five boroughs (especially the more densely populated parts). Heavy snow will stick anywhere except maybe midtown. 

HRRR and NAM look decent, RGEM is meh. Don't really know what to expect tomorrow but probably the range is like 1 to 5 inches.

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Wow GFS barely has a storm. Continues the trend of NAM and HRRR further east. Looks like an initial wave and then the low gets pulled east so we never really get going here. Warm too 

Likely go together, further east less dynamics warmer solution, better dynamics would lead to a colder solution.

Just now, MJO812 said:

Double lows. Not sure if we should believe that. All these models have been horrible. 

These models are ridiculous, 12z they all come west look like a decent storm, now all east and disorganized.

GFS looks east for tomorrow. it is what it is, even another 1-3 inches would be nice on top of todays with a good pattern coming up.

RGEM also looks like a hot mess tomorrow, too warm at the coast and not that much precip anywhere.

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah its warm

Also has two waves

NAM looks west maybe too far west for the coast but probably overamped.

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Don’t underrate the impact this accumulation may have on tomorrow.  At least in areas that got snow today.  It could definitely keep things 1-2 degrees cooler overnight which can be a factor tomorrow in a setup like this 

if a band forms somewhere from northern NJ/LHV/into interior CT could pick up 6 inches tomorrow on top of what fell today. The models often miss a band on the NW edge of the main snow. 

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Sure seems to like it actually. Second wave is main event


.

Yea my bad I missed the second wave.

Not sure how useful at this range but HRRR not too interested in tomorrow, not even too far east but just dry. 

This goes to show rates matter more than surface temps. If the rates are good surface temps are overcome, if not then you end up wet. 

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

that’s the best way to see where this is an actual snow storm at the moment. Like I said yesterday, this is an elevation storm.

I wouldn't call northern Westchester and eastern Rockland highly elevated.  Also roads are covered down to the NYC line even if traffic is moving ok.

ECM almost doubled totals from the 0Z run to 12Z for today and tomorrow lol