Winterweatherlover

How come the euro is so different from other models? This is such a hard forecast. 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

UK is often slightly too warm at the surface. The key is consolidating the offshore low early and turning the flow around to NE to push the warm maritime crap away and make us benefit from crashing heights/dynamics. 

So we don’t want a double low? 

12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I guess people may come off the ledge since the Ukie flip flopped again but for the better. 

 

I’m sorta off the ledge because of the cmc. The Ukie I don’t take too seriously lol. 

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Precip isn’t the problem. Track isn’t the problem. The airmass sucks. Plain and simple.

This is oversimplified. The right track and right dynamics would affect the outcome. 

If the 0Z euro holds and we have cmc/euro in our favor that wouldn’t be a bad combo. Still a tricky setup it seems for the models and I guess I’m not that optimistic due to the overall setup and how perfect this needs to go. 

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

You just continue to throw the euro run out? Lol

Not throwing it out but it’s has limited support. If we actually had a suite where at least two models showed something promising I’d feel more hopeful. 

The cmc undergoes faster rapid intensification so that probably helped. Still not optimistic but nice to finally see a decent run from a model I sorta trust. 

Cmc looks decent but I wonder how much of that is the norlun feature, the low still looks pretty Far East. 

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yup. Wayyyyy out to sea. Southern stream racing out ahead.  No phase.  Forky mentioned yesterday he wouldn't be shocked if went out to sea

 

The low may as well go to London at this point, good call by Forky. 

The 0Z gfs is now mainly rain to Rockland and Putnam counties…..

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

How can u be so confident? The euro just showed 8" in the city.. these models are all over the place.  Complex system.  I don't think they'll have it figured out till tommor night 

Relying on a norlun feature to produce has never worked. Not sure what the Euro is doing that other models aren’t but it seems basically on its own. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Debbie downer

 

 

 

Just kidding you're likely right 

Hey I’m fairly optimistic for the I84 crew. At least someone in the subforum will get a nice storm finally. 

34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just sucks we don't have a colder air mass in place. 

Yes there’s enough liquid that if we actually had a cold air this would be a decent storm. 

Ok now that I understand what is happening I can pretty confidently say 0 inches of accumulation for NYC, maybe white rain on Tuesday. Anything more would be shocking surprise. 

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Expect rain and be happy if it turns into something more. The inverted trough is ruining it (which causes that low reflection near NJ) like the other runs/models. That needs to go away for the NYC area to see anything other than a washout.

Ah so that snow on Tuesday showing up is from a norlun feature and not the actual storm? Then it’s most likely not going to happen. 

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we get wraparound mood snow for a while it likely wouldn't accumulate if it's battling 34-35 degree temps and March sun. We would optimally want it to happen at night, and the low to bomb earlier and form a CCB over us so we get the benefit of heavy rates and cold air from the crashing heights. 

Yea honestly none of that is happening imo barring huge changes. The best we can hope for is back end snow. 

RGEM looks a little better to me. 

The snow does come on the backend but not much on this run. 

The NAM is warm as the west low is hugging the coast. I don’t mind the nam being over amped since we need a west trend and are mostly depending on wrap around precip. 

At 51 there does appear to maybe be a double low near the NJ coast.

Def looks slightly east through 48 unless we get a double low. 

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

For me, the final 0z model runs to lock this track in. NAM up first. 

Not sure it’ll be locked in by tonight. I’m not expecting much but have resigned myself to keep tracking the likely final event of the “winter”.

30 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Rockland county and northern westchester are legit in the who the F knows zone for this one.

The way the winter has gone I’d say expect to be in the wrong side of the gradient but I’m with you that I have no idea for that area. 

2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Surface and mid level air temps along with sun angle. Then warmer ground temps. That’s my thoughts.

True but if mainly snow and very heavy should be able to overcome it. Higher elevations def favored thus time of year but even valleys north of I84 should get at least a foot if the current setup holds.

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Maybe take off 75%

Why so low inland?