Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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It's hard to see this trending significantly with the Euro and Canadian models both locked in on colder solutions this close to the event. However the scary part is even a small north shift could have big implications for southern parts of the subforum.
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Yea I wonder why it's drier, is that a bias?
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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0Z RGEM looks good, looks like mostly snow but still kind of dry. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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It depends on the type of storm and if it's a gradient vs warm air coming in. I do agree I can't think of a time upper Manhattan/Bronx were mainly snow while JFK got almost nothing. Also the maps seem to be showing snow down to JFK but I'm guessing temps are an issue in terms of accumulations?
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Same in the city, it has 4” north bronx and less than 1” for jfk. (I'm going by Kuchera maps).
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NAM looks good from northern parts of NYC on north. Sharp cutoff in southern NYC. Think it’s still playing catch-up anyway.
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Maps?
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It's hard to predict 25+ inches of snow during a time period where NYC historically has never had a 12+ storm. Would need to see many different snow events in March for this to happen. Nothing is impossible but the odds are unlikely.
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Seems a bit more realistic than the first map. Hard to believe that places like Southern Westchester might be getting their first WWA advisory all season.
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I don't think it's going to be cold enough or juicy enough to get 6 inches in Riverdale (And I'm only focused on that because I live right near Riverdale) but I do agree with the overall point that there could be some noticeable differences across the city.
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I think gfs too juicy with this showing 5-8 inches most suburbs. If it’s cold it’s gonna be drier. Although I guess I could also see how colder would lead to possibly higher ratios north of the city.
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Probably for another thread but 18z gfs coming in noticeably colder with that one.
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Euro seems to be the only model showing both cold and decent qpf. I’d def take the RGEM solution though probably the best we are going to get with this.
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Yes but expected in March.
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It is starting to get exhausting tracking a storm with a ceiling of 3-5 inches but in this winter that would be 3 to 5 times most peoples totals.
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I mean this was kind of expected although even this event probably dissapointed expectations which weren't high to begin with. It was fun to see giant flakes though for 10 minutes.
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Euro coming north for next weekend (actually starting late Friday) hopefully doesn't end up as far north as the GFS.
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Agree the Euro and American models will mess with your head lol, I trust the Canadian models most. However they are showing sleet close to Philly and not blanking the city.
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Doesn't look like quite all snow for NYC on the Euro but pretty close at least for northern parts. Would be interested to see Kuchera maps.
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Once you start seeing frozen precip down to Philly and Southern NJ its a good sign for at least something for us. I'm still not buying the Euro's all snow solution but I also am growing confident that uptons map blanking the city entirely will be wrong.
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I have a different take. I think HPN might be in a very good spot with this one. I think areas just north of the city could do very well with the front end. It depends how far north the pellets make it but usually being just north of sleet is good for heavy snow in this type of WAA setup.
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Definitely conservative near the coast but I could see why given the winter and the setup.
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I'd def rather have the Canadian models and Euro in my camp than the GFS/Ukie. However I agree with you about SWFE and late north trends so agree not to be too hopeful yet.
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Can you post their map?
