Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Cmc looks decent but I wonder how much of that is the norlun feature, the low still looks pretty Far East.
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The low may as well go to London at this point, good call by Forky.
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The 0Z gfs is now mainly rain to Rockland and Putnam counties…..
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Relying on a norlun feature to produce has never worked. Not sure what the Euro is doing that other models aren’t but it seems basically on its own.
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Hey I’m fairly optimistic for the I84 crew. At least someone in the subforum will get a nice storm finally.
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Yes there’s enough liquid that if we actually had a cold air this would be a decent storm.
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Ok now that I understand what is happening I can pretty confidently say 0 inches of accumulation for NYC, maybe white rain on Tuesday. Anything more would be shocking surprise.
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Ah so that snow on Tuesday showing up is from a norlun feature and not the actual storm? Then it’s most likely not going to happen.
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Yea honestly none of that is happening imo barring huge changes. The best we can hope for is back end snow.
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RGEM looks a little better to me.
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The snow does come on the backend but not much on this run.
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The NAM is warm as the west low is hugging the coast. I don’t mind the nam being over amped since we need a west trend and are mostly depending on wrap around precip.
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At 51 there does appear to maybe be a double low near the NJ coast.
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Def looks slightly east through 48 unless we get a double low.
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Not sure it’ll be locked in by tonight. I’m not expecting much but have resigned myself to keep tracking the likely final event of the “winter”.
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The way the winter has gone I’d say expect to be in the wrong side of the gradient but I’m with you that I have no idea for that area.
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True but if mainly snow and very heavy should be able to overcome it. Higher elevations def favored thus time of year but even valleys north of I84 should get at least a foot if the current setup holds.
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Why so low inland?
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The 18z euro just woke it back up lol amazing what these models do to us.
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Differences but the pivotal map definitely has the 6+ line further south than the 12z run.
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I think realistically at least most of us are not expecting a MECS but hoping for a 3-6 inch event on the backend.
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I think 1-2 feet pretty possible around Poughkeepsie. Most models seem to really like that area this time around.
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It’s mostly the euro and one gfs run. The cmc has not really shown anything great any run. The Ukie was showing a huge hit a day ago but has consistently backed off two straight runs.
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I want to let this one go but the euro does good with big storms at least traditionally so it’s reeling me in.
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The 18z gfs shut down the whole forum, never seen one run do that.
