Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Hope it’s right. Would be amazing to get 6 inches here, might even last until Wed.
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Ok you are right about that but I haven’t seen too many people predicting that except maybe one or two posts.
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Should see changes in the forecast after the 12z euro comes out.
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We are getting our biggest snow of the year tonight and you are still being negative. I haven’t seen too many people predict it’s going to be a March 2018 repeat.
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Dewpoints 7 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=12&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 10 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 am https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I specifically posted RGEM because it has slight warm bias but usually pretty good with temps. Factoring in wet bulb my guess would be 32-33 North Shore/Northern NYC and 33-35 South Shore/Southern NYC during height of precip.
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Not that it matters much but for those wanting any good news the Ukie did trend a little south https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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RGEM Temps 7 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022715&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 10 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 am https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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What's the rationale, why are they not a good tool to look at?
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Its kind of both a pro and a con that it's happening at night. Night time should definitely help with accumulation at this time of the year but also most of us will miss out on seeing it snow and it'll be mostly gone by tomorrow afternoon (maybe tomorrow morning along the immediate coast).
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This was never really going to be our storm unless we got lucky with the blocking squashing it, but spring isn't coming yet, the favorable period for wintry weather is more so mid month.
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Likely true but still over 4 days out.
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GFS still look very amped and warm for Friday-Saturday. However this is what it looked like at hour 81 for tonight. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022418&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Probably not important at this range but CMC is terrible for the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Maybe some closings in the Bronx? Roads could be very nasty at 7 am.
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Epic run just NW of the city. Very likely overdone. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Fair point. Should still probably start snow though but won’t accumulate unless it’s like 36 or lower.
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Looks like it flips to mix/rain for all of the metro area but the south shore is the only place that may have mixing issues during initial precip burst.
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Agree I don’t think the storm will wash away itself although with temps and sun angle probably won’t be much left by late afternoon tomorrow.
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I don’t see this being a last minute disaster scenario.
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Yea I think expect 1-3 inches for the City. Anything more would be a pleasant surprise.
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The NAM is 1-3 on the front end for the metro. It does have sleet to Orange County and rain to Westchester. It could be right but also the RGEM has been so steady and colder that I’m not taking the NAM too seriously.
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The Ukmet lol
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I just looked at the NAM and I don’t even know what to think of it. It’s been such a lousy model but sometimes it’s right in these scenarios.
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It’s not my favorite type of storm by any means but it’s more interesting than all rain.
