Winterweatherlover

Unless it bombs out closer to the coast I agree for your area. I think CPK likely gets enough to end the futility conversation as long as it's measured before 7 am.

Guess it depends what maps you look at, I use pivotal and have found the pivotal kuchera maps to be pretty reasonable in marginal events. Either way it's hard to see a blanking. There's going to be some snow and it's going to be falling primarily between 1 am and 7 am unless there are new changes to the setup inside of 72 hours.

Yes if we had that this could have been a much bigger event but it doesn't seem that's the way it is trending.

I mean it's not great but could be worse, not really seeing why people are saying mainly rain, pretty good agreement on at least >1 inch snow for CPK. It's also mostly at night/early morning so sun angle shouldn't be an issue. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030800&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Cold is helpful but also needs to be not really light or it’ll just be white rain.

Yea seems this could be similar to 2/28 the areas that saw mainly snow may see another few inches, the places that mixed with that probably won’t see much of anything with this. As of now this looks weaker but the setup isn’t that different so precip rates might intensify as we get closer to the event.

Maybe white rain, don’t see this as mostly rain at least away from the south shore/north of I78 in NJ.

At least it’s mostly coming at night again which helps this time of year.

Fairly good agreement now on a 1-3 maybe 2-4 inch event on Sat for the city and points NW. LI is a wildcard as they could get nothing or if the coastal blows up close enough to the coast they could jackpot.

If you referring to this Sat I’m mostly giving up on a big storm idea and hoping for a few inches although def see how it could be something bigger.

Too far out to put too much into these runs for that one. Probably won’t figure it out until wave 1 is through.

RGEM looks decent for storm 1 too.

I was talking about the second storm on the Euro. Not sure if the lack of cold air is due to airmass or track though.

Sure this pattern could fail but it also succeed but appreciate you always letting us know the reasons why it could fail (not being sarcastic).

Really good post.

No cold air but I guess if it bombed out 6 hours earlier than the 12Z OP run is showing it could be a bit different.

Now we have 3 waves to track but am getting tired of focusing on stuff so far out so right now just focused on wave 1 which looks decent on most models for at least a few inches but of course could change because of lack of cold air.

Two storm total CMC (Sorry if too many maps but people say they like visuals) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030712&fh=168&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gdps

Storm 2 snow totals (CMC) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Interior still snowing

Storm 2: GFS totally surpressed CMC looks like will be a hit Verbatim CMC is fairly weak and tracks inside the BM, snow to rain coast, snow inland.

That blocking really means business, the storm tracks SE once it gets offshore.

CMC colder and flatter than GFS (Storm 1) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Snowfall amounts meh for coast, could be better if dynamics get involved but storm 2 is a way better setup for the coast. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

GFS still very focused on storm 1 for Saturday https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Rained in Boston and Maine, 3+ feet in HV and Catskills. Truly fascinating storm. This one probably won’t be that extreme but does have big potential.