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Winterweatherlover

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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover

  1. Winterweatherlover
    Looks like temps start in the single digits during the storm, max out in the mid 20s in NYC.
  2. Winterweatherlover
    I've tracked storms long enough to 4 days is still an eternity for things to change. I will say given the wide swath of precip and depth of the cold there's enough wiggle room in all directions where I can't see that much going wrong with this.
  3. Winterweatherlover
    Still 4 days out
  4. Winterweatherlover
    Normaly backend snow is in a myth in this area but in this type of scenario I can see it ending as snow.
  5. Winterweatherlover
    CMC is about 6-9 inches, then sleet. I'd be fine with that but GFS is ideal.
  6. Winterweatherlover
    CMC holds onto the primary a long time
  7. Winterweatherlover
    I can't remember the last time there was such a wide swath of heavy snow. This feels like a 90s storm again.
  8. Winterweatherlover
    Yea probably realistically, GFS is a thing of beauty everywhere, 12-18 inches DC to Boston.
  9. Winterweatherlover
    GFS seems to have the primary a lot further south and weaker, seems mainly like a classic coastal.
  10. Winterweatherlover
    True but it is moving less south now based on recent trends.
  11. Winterweatherlover
    verbatim yes it's fine but a primary that far north is not usually all snow for NYC. I think all frozen still extremely likely but would likely be some sleet with a Ukie track.
  12. Winterweatherlover
    Ukie has the primary making it to Erie, still mostly snow here. It's probably in la la land, hopefully.
  13. Winterweatherlover
    Yes sleet to southern Ohio.
  14. Winterweatherlover
    Not sure hug is the right word but I guess the primary can come pretty far north according to some of these models. I don't think far enough to cause problems precip wise but sleet can't be ruled out.
  15. Winterweatherlover
    The temp gradient on the CMC pretty wild at hour 114, upper 30s in SNJ, teens in NYC area/Northern NJ.
  16. Winterweatherlover
    Honestly i'm surprised CMC is only showing 12-18 inches I would have thought if heavy precip got that far north there'd be 2 foot totals in some places.
  17. Winterweatherlover
    CMC looks way north, sleet to Southern NJ and almost to LI.
  18. Winterweatherlover
    QPF isn't that high for most in this subforum, 0.7 qpf given the temps etc seems reasonable for around a foot. If it trends north then it would be higher.
  19. Winterweatherlover
    Probably too early to nail down timeframe exactly but yes probably Sunday night to Monday seems like would be the bulk of it as of now.
  20. Winterweatherlover
    Thats my initial thinking as well, this storm may be too strong to be as far south as depicted on the gfs but may be too cold to jackpot our area. DC-ACY seems like the sweet spot but I do think warning level snows are possible in this sub forum.
  21. Winterweatherlover
    At least we aren't in range yet to get 18Z Nam'ed.
  22. Winterweatherlover
    Either the overrunning needs to come to our latitude (most promising scenario) or the coastal turns NE instead of E or ENE but the latter is always very hit or miss.
  23. Winterweatherlover
    The models likely won't lose this storm since it's coming across the country from the west, not a developing coastal offshore. The storm could miss us to the south but very unlikely the storm just disappears entirely.
  24. Winterweatherlover
    The reality is I don't think is a jackpot strom for the subforum, this feels like a DC classic or maybe even south of there. If it turns up the coast then this subforum could still get some snow. Idk thats my two sense just going by the pattern and high to the north.
  25. Winterweatherlover
    too far out for a perfect run lol.
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