MDScienceTeacher

2014.. they had their comutageddon https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/atlanta-snowmaggedon-2014-the-january-snow-storm-that-paralyzed-atlanta/KTEPKGS2RNHBTEOCIOFVSKNWFE/

But it basically shows what the gfs and euro are showing

Based on the ensemble trends (thanks @brooklynwx99), It looks to me that a storm will strengthen and ride up underneath the block. The question now is whether or not it can gets its act together before it passes us.

I have 4 inches in Ellicott City and it is still snowing. It is definitely not a bust. Unless you took the best 3 model runs over the last 5 days and thought you were getting a foot.

I have never seen a map like that. Not even in 2016

I don’t think tv stations have numerical predictions models or super computers.. but maybe

lol I didn’t realize it was that close… I know you are down in sw Virginia now but even so the ob took me by surprise. I really hope the column holds for you and you do well! Good luck.

It is actually quite amazing how stubbornly different they all are. I guess we just take a blend and everyone is happy.

No. The 2016 Blizzard featured 3 inch per hour rates for 3 hours IMBY. That 0.5-0.6" QP in 6 hours is 1 inch per hour.

These comparisons are not really showing any significant shifts at all IMHO. Especially the Euro. It hasnt really changed at all in the last 3 days.

If the ccb gets cranking with the ull passage, then there is a big chance for 10+ inch totals somewhere in our forum. A few years ago I remember an event where Rockville got in toto backside banding and it snowed and extra 6 inches in a small concentrated area. I feel like that could happen again with this storm. The gfs has hinted towards it a couple of times in the last few runs.

Ughhh that’s the kiss of death. I honestly would have preferred that had shown a Richmond bullseye.

It’s not a guarantee. You have to look at the upper level flow. This is the 500mb height anomaly at the time the storm is approaching our area. Notice the sw to ne lines flowing directly over the mid Atlantic and the large low pressure over the Canadian maritimes. This is the main feature that will determine the storm track. If that feature is not there, then I would agree that we would see the typical north shift with the gfs as we approach game time. But since this feature is so dominant in this set up.. you have to at least give the gfs some credence with the suppressed/ southern look.

Exactly

Are you doing the pbp again?

Regardless of the southern solutions.. I would be shocked if northern md wasn’t once again in the jack pot.

It already is a real threat. The euro at 120 hours is basically in its wheelhouse.

yes.. both of those storms featured very cold/ high ratio snow. I am pretty sure it was low-mid 20.

I didnt realize just how cold it was. Verbatim, during the front end thump it is 23 degrees at the surface at BWI. When was the last time we saw 23 degrees and +SN?

I know psu. I am just trying to find a silver lining.

Which one is it? Historic cold outbursts of continued warmth? If we have both, there will be a tendency for greater temp gradients and a more active STJ. This could lead to snowier outcomes.

Thank you for this. I think people forget that it does snow around here in the winter. The past several years have been so far below normal that I think it is starting to make people believe that it might not snow anymore. But if you look at the past 80 years, there are several stretches like the one we are in now, 49-57, 71-77, 89-94 to name a few. I try to look at it as a positive. If history is a guide, we are due for an epic run of snow. I refused to even to accept the alternative. It is just too damn depressing,

or Feb 2015.

Which years are your analogs?

I wouldnt give up so fast. The mid atlantic has had several long periods (7-10 years) of significantly below average snow fall. We are probably just going through one of those now. In terms of warming.. I am with @Bob Chill in thinking the net effect is going to be more severe winters storms but who knows. We are just in one of those long droughts.