DarkSharkWX

i know its snow mean but EPS at end of run looks really good, 7" snow mean and >30% chance NW of the fall line for over 6"

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Did the vort over SD/NE hurt us? It didn’t exist on the GFS. Saw the same things you did and assumed it would be a better run but it wasn’t

nah i doubt so, this was a better run and snow came a lot closer to coast, just W of fall line verabritm gets frontend snow

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Any notable trends on the euro? 

western trough was weaker and more held back and 50/50 was a lot stronger, big step in right direction

we were close

Just now, winter_warlock said:

 Hmm how accurate is the ukmet compared to gfs a week out ?? Lol

verification scores are 2nd just behind euro

ahead of cmc and gfs

ukmet looks good, cold and south

less amped than 0z

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Omg the copium is out of control.  Why do so many gravitate to one extreme or the other. There is either no trend and everything looks awesome because we should ignore anything that looks bad and just look at wherever still shows a good track.  Or…it’s over these always trend north and this has no chance. 
 

Reality: The trend isn’t good, these do usually trend north, this isn’t where we ideally want to be, but they don’t always trend north. There are things that could reverse the trend. I’d say it’s 30/70 against us but that’s not hopeless and definitely still worth tracking. And obviously places further NW have a better chance than that here. 
 

Our best shot to reverse this would be for the 50/50 to trend more amplified and further SW. 

the 50/50 low is going to help but i think the biggest concern is the west coast trough crashing in way too early and sending the low too NE, thats what happened this run despite the 50/50 looking stronger(at least initally)

1011 mb --> 1002mb, pretty sig shift

What a run

euro was a nice step forward, much colder this run

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I generally agree with your points but this chart isnt totally applicable because this is not an east based Nino.  It's a basin wide nino.  Look at my last post above at the current anomalies compared to two recent basin wide events.  Nearly identical. 

webb counts basin wide events as EP, although they are different, basin wide events are considered EP in literature which is what he counts them as

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Why? Most El Nino's have a nasty +PNA by mid-January (historically), this usually correlates to an east coast trough. It seems like as things are happening "a lot of people expected it"

since this is not a pure modoki nino and considering the warm SSTS in MC/IO as well as dateline, there will be periods of MC forcing(mid jan), u aren't going to get 4 months straight of favorable nino forcing in 8/1/2/3 in a basin wide nino

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

The 7th on paper should be a slam dunk based on where we thought the pattern was headed

Now we are praying a Hail Mary for a wintry mix.

not really, the lack of true cold air was underestimated yes but there is enough cold air for it to work, even if marginal

you just cant make defintive conclusions when its 8 days out and it can trend either way 

the pattern itself is pretty decent for something, getting cold air is possible but its gonna have to depend on some luck

thread the needle but its def possible

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

The t3 was a fluke in a bad pattern on the heels of 60 degree stormFor most people’s forecast to now to verify we are going to need 2 blizzards most likely lol

jan 7th isnt even determined yet lmfao, and u cant say for sure that we wont get lucky again during mid jan or earlier/later even if the pattern is bad, the pattern was absolutely horrible for dec 11th and there was a decent area of 1-3"+ for parts dc metro 

this seems to be following this very well rn 

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Then someone should have just said that there be no winter till January 25.

You can’t have a mid month warmup when it’s too warm to snow in the early month and the previous month

Absurd.

did u forget the T-3"+ event we had in early dec, and early jan is still not determined yet wrt to Jan 7th(8 days out) 

most people's forecasts are going as expected right now
any concern for late jan onwards won't be nina forcing/type pattern but rather if jet gets overextended again

ur just going to have to be patient

Just now, Ji said:

I wonder if we really needed a super super nino. Is the low mei that was discussed for a while now coming back to haunt us. We are in a favorable mjo phase. Ao is negative…nao is negative ….

Are we done? lol

its really not that deep, the MJO is going to return to unfavorable phases(4/5/6) and therefore it retracts the jet

thus, we see the western trough/slight eastern ridge pattern setting up along with an -NAO(will prevent us from being super warm)
 

and as for concerns about slowed IO forcing, thats just going to be a byproduct of a weakening +IOD increasing convection in that area, we will eventually make it to 8/1/2, 30C+ ssts remain in both MC/IO and dateline

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Were the season models in 2019 similar to 2023? It’s amazing how they have been so deadly accurate for the easy part…the warm and wet December. Now when we need them to stay on course they are starting to fall apart

Very discouraging. I’ll give it a few days. Sometimes there are hiccups but in this age…you have to be super skeptical

If we don’t snow this winter….hooheh boy. Bob chill has already fled

you do realize a mid jan warmup was expected by most right? i understand the angst about early jan(assuming it fails) but a warm/wet dec and a transitionary jan was generally expected

i wouldnt be too surprised if we see a 2016 type scenario where its just too warm w the airmasses for early jan and then the snowcover/cold rebuilds in mid jan for late jan and onwards, this is progressing as expected imo 

26 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Did 2016 have a period in early January where a NPAC ridge threw a wrench in things?

ETA: I meant ridge, not trough.

not as it seems but this looks somewhat similar to the period we're having in mid jan w/ the western trough dumping, happened right before the KU and slid under the block

we are following the jan 2016 progression right now, but maybe around a week earlier

patience is needed

Just now, Ji said:

sorry PSU--this is not a long range model win. No model had this

op gfs tax

Welp
 
 

eps looks good

gefs looking blocky

quadfecta of teleconnections on GEFS; -EPO/-NAO/-AO/+PNA

this is how you open up potential for higher end events with cold air available

some greenland ridging popping up on GEFS, looks good