DarkSharkWX

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Webb doubling down.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1736857404233732178?t=O3FCHXnNyaWiPCw1pn9q6Q&s=19

 

by his snowcover logic or whatever shouldnt have 2022-23 winter been a cold and snowy one for the EC bc of how cold the continent was in dec??

thats like saying why do we have summer if winter is so cold 

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Any word on the 12z EPS?

still good

nice changes so far w more ridging poking into the arctic domain and low being pulled further W into the Aleutians

46 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

GEFS looks better, so far cold is arriving faster, further W GOA/Aleutian low, stronger 50/50 low and +PNA/N Canadian ridging

now starting to retrograde westward, nice +PNA signal and overall good slider pattern, significantly better w/ shifts towards the EPS, still got a lot of work to do, but now we're building heights in W Canada/E AK as well as nice confluence

GEFS looks better, so far cold is arriving faster, further W GOA/Aleutian low, stronger 50/50 low and +PNA/N Canadian ridging

Just now, CAPE said:

It hasn't been 'missing' that whole time. We have had timely periods of +PNA/-EPO that contributed to cold/snowy periods.

yes but generally we have been missing that, 2022 had a favorable pattern in Jan

besides 2019/2022 past 7 years haven't been really good here(except 2021 for northern areas?)

compare to last up period for NE US

looks great, favorable storm track with plenty cold, amazing eps run

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Damn. Look at that ridge out west.

exactly what we've been missing the past 7 years

-NAO builds as well as retrograding the heights in W NA further W into Alaska, as well as the aleutian low

positive changes on EPS so far with atlantic and pacific domain, looks great

without snow cover build its going to be hard to get sustained cold, however if the model progression of retrograding heights westward into the EPO/PNA domain and even getting some height builds in NAO domain it will eventually improve

the 28th-30th airmass seems just cold enough to snow; marginal but could work

yeah this is p surprising we act have to watch this now probably, models are going to be struggling af with this 

2.1" 12/11/2023

seasonal total as of date: 2.1"

16 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I think I may have read something about how stout +EAMT events can help destabilize the PV.  Anyone else ever hear of that?

are you referencing aleutian lows putting pressure on the SPV bc those are typically caused by jet extensions

although +EAMT classic evolution is one that builds HP over the Urals that becomes advected eastward to be in E/SE Asia, therefore causing an +EAMT event so it could also be that? idk fs tho

speaking of, the weak SPV will help with overextension concerns and should bully the jet to retract back eventually, but i would be skeptical of pattern changes too quickly as models may be running through them too quickly

w that being said, we will def progress eventually, my bet is early-mid jan; remember nino winters really start in the EC after MLK day

2.1” final storm total in gburg 530’

huge overpreformance

1" on sidewalks and roads people are going to be so surprised waking up to this lmao 

still 32 here and puking snow gburg def atl an inch now


.

All snow, 34.3/34.0, big fat flakes coming down nicely, slush forming on my deck and elevated surfaces

almost all snow now, temp still dropping crazy, 34.7/34.3

35.8 snow mixing in gburg

36.1 was mixing flakes here again gburg

36.9/36.5 rn

mangled flakes are starting to mix in here at gburg 530'

mix has made it to south of sterling/ashburn, should transition soon for ppl over there