DarkSharkWX

nam vs euro, all abt the tilt

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

i was talking to cody snell yesterday(WPC met) and he said similar things relating to the CIPS analogs being further north. he implied that he was expecting a northern trend(not a huge jump to the NW though) but he said to expect some southern shifts in the next forecast cycles. as you've said multiple times it seems a bit odd that this is so suppressed with a UL strength like that tracking relatively north

speaking of i think this is an expansion north a bit lmao(the cyan anyways)

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

How much time do we have left for a significant change to more robust storm solution? 

 

 

modeling is atrocious with TPV setups and ULLs but maybe until tmrw night? id greatly lower expectations though ofc

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly they both look like we should be worried about a too far NW track not a coastal scraper. I’ve honestly never need so “confused” by model output. I rarely ever see something I’ve never seen before but this is if.
 

A closed h5 low near Chicago and a h7 pass through PA = big snow to our southeast?  Not in any book I’ve ever read. 

i was talking to cody snell yesterday(WPC met) and he said similar things relating to the CIPS analogs being further north. he implied that he was expecting a northern trend(not a huge jump to the NW though) but he said to expect some southern shifts in the next forecast cycles. as you've said multiple times it seems a bit odd that this is so suppressed with a UL strength like that tracking relatively north

Although the Euro has been trending better in some aspects(a more amped upper low, kicker more held back -> more +PNA), the problem here is the tilt. It has been trending more neutrally tilted which is a problem, additionally, the flow out ahead of the TPV lobe is more suppressive, and the southern stream shortwave isn't digging as much, leading to a more OTS solution. Ideally you'd want to see the confluence lift up a bit with the SS digging more for a less flat flow. We'll need an earlier, more robust phase with less flat flow. Looking at old runs that were good for us, the +PNA was good but the key difference was that the trough was more buckled since the SS wave was able to dig more leading to a more negative tilt. The TPV wasn't squashing out the flow in front of it because of this, so now in future runs we'd want to see a relax of more confluence and more buckling of the trough via the SS wave being deeper, and maybe slow down a little bit to raise heights out east and turn the trough negative. 

I don't think the +PNA is the issue here on its own; its a phenomenal change, its the fact that there's other changes which are bad vis a vis the SS wave which makes the flow out ahead of the TPV lobe worse, so that's why despite the Pacific "improving", surface is considerably worse. 
 

v day 2007, but also some of the higher end 80s storms

WOAH

5 hours ago, Heisy said:

The second event feb 9-11 2010 was sort of like that. This event has more southern proponent ahead of it I think


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thanks for the suggestion, looking at era5 looks like it did have a tpv phase - kicker vort dug and amplified the western ridge which lead to a tpv lobe digging all the way down and phasing w/ the other wave, roll it forward and...



 

genuine question, what was a similar storm to this setup with TPV interaction(to this extent) being involved?

this is quite nice

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro has the @psuhoffman Storm. Big dog.

MECS on euro
 

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

AI buries us apparently? Where you at @mitchnick?

 

On a different note, keep in mind this deamplification trend may be starting for the Thursday and weekend storms next week already…

idk if i should post the map here... might as well lol

just checked soundings for JYO/GAI we don't mix until hour 126 when precip is all out and even if there was precip its just sleet

Just now, Ji said:

What made euro change to ice

honestly idk 850s are below the entire time we get precip, even if there is a warm nose its probably like sleet not zr

Just now, Ji said:

Let’s not waste that last .2 on ice and we get double digit

but you don't lol, for some reason it has northern moco staying as snow and it doesnt make a difference at all

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Actually 00z flips some of us to ice - despite the better surface temps. Lose like 0.2” QPF Would’ve been a better run sans that - maybe some 10” lollies 

thats kinda weird but i dont think would have made much of a difference, looks to me more sleet than zr if we mix

most of the precips already out of here by the time N of DC starts to mix

money shot

there we go

euro got colder and more amped!

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

@psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know!

if you dont mind me asking, has 2003/1989 been popping up as well? i've been seeing a lot of those years on CPC analogs

EPS looks more amped and a touch south