DarkSharkWX

nmore amped and more confluence

gefs is way colder 850 0C line is SE of st marys

75 mile shift S, even dc stays all snow

CMC absolutely crushes us, S of last run w more conflunece

GFS noticeable shift more confluence

did something get sampled?

23 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

iqr, 50th, 75th, 90th

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Snow mean wise it’s actually a decrease, but my guess is that’s more just the max potential slipping away. Curious to see what the median is.

thats j cause less precip it overall held and is still nice

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Hopefully being SE helps with temps?

850 seems SE of DC whole run

EPS looks similar to 12z but weaker and SE

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Same. The high looks to be in a better position

and 5 mb lower 50/50

im suprised, some of the indies have extremely large hits, im interested to see what their handling of the SW US shortwave is and how everything gets affected by it

wish there was a way to do so but it appears not sadly

EPS holds generally if anyone cares

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m with you. It’s that piece behind our sw that’s causing this. As you said that piece is over the North Pacific. I expect that’s gonna change in future runs. Not necessarily better though.

that completely changes the setup sadly, we also see the dual jet signature go away on euro

its just the new vort in the SW/Central US that digs and fucks up everything, not only induces height rises and make the low go north but also flattens out the storm and makes it weak, not as simple as "NW of low snows" anymore sadly

good news is this energy is over the aleutians rn, i would give it some time before canceling this but trends are unfavorable rn ill admit

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Saw NWS Pittsburgh post this. Here's some NBM data that covers a good chunk of the subforum. For reference, 5" of snow in 12 hours is the warning criteria in these parts. If these numbers hold, it's quite possible we're looking at a decent advisory level event with a jackpot to a low level warning event for the NW suburbs.

 

 

https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-105&theme=dark&dset=NBM4.1-CONUS&clusHghlgt=true&x4dGrid={"HREF"%3A{"url"%3A[40.5%2C-100%2C388%2C270]}%2C"NBM4.1"%3A{"url"%3A[39.096%2C-76.637%2C"450"%2C"315"]}}
site to this if anyone wants it btw, chance of 5" below(WSW criteria)

much better this run 

CMC crusher NW of 95

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Icon is ever so slightly warmer than 6z, maybe a 5-10 mile shift northwest in the rain snow line ... Mainly noise but would have been nice to see a south shift instead. 

thermals are wrong, it shows low-mid 20s in like SNE and rain

kuchera more than 10:1??

one thing i noticed on the gfs was that our vort over OK digs more and shunts it N, id assume its a part of why we saw a N shift

here is dynamic slr/cobb ratio(takes in account all layers of atmosphere + rates better)