DarkSharkWX

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Honest question, but isn't the migration of the core of the low to the Aleutians what we want to see?  That seems like that is what it is doing.

yea lol, its going to take some time to transition to a good pattern for here, it j isnt going to magically flip from warm to cold and snowy, not sure why some people were expecting it

crazy ass gfs run for the mountains and W of I81

4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Boom on the digital snow for western folks. Not ideal, way off in lala land.. but wow! Boom!

 

over 5 feet tears

im p sure if you remove the super nino years with crazy goa low phase 8/1 would still gen be good tropical forcing for cold/snow here 

the warm phases of the mjo(4/5/6) seem to be generally transient and help to weaken the SPV bc of configs in the NPAC pattern(which are most associated w tropospheric wave driving), along w a +SCAND and an existing -NAO/-AO increasing the chances of it coupling 

weeklies been very consistent w late dec-early jan signal and is moving in time, fits w mjo/spv progression

woah , nino 4 at 1.9 rn, might beat all time nino 4 record

DCA : 27.8" 

BWI : 35.4"

IAD : 39.6"

RIC: 16.2"

SBY: 13.4"

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Well we did use to get snow on Dec 5...

Remember remember the 5th of December...

so many times in the 2000s lmao

GEFS improved

39 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Also did we just set the warmest Nino 4 has been ever?

whats the highest daily? on the monthly index highest i could find was 1.44 set on nov 2015

nice -NAO/+PNA showing up here

snowfall at DCA in these months:

Dec 1981: 1.7"
Dec 1952: 2.0"
Dec 2009: 16.6"
Dec 1955: 0.5"
Dec 1961: 1.2"
Dec 1996: 0.2"
Dec 1987: T
Nov 1981:T 
Dec 2000: 2.0"

super torch!

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Meh 

 

even with a great pattern its going to take some time to flush the previous pac puke warm air out 

 

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

One important detail to note about this upcoming -NAO dominated pattern. The -PNA that’s also coming later this week and weekend is going to really scour out all the cold air on the continent. And that takes some time to regenerate in situ. So you see a gorgeous H5 pattern on the ensembles like this on and after the 6th or 7th and think we’re back to frigid temps and …nah. 

9 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

big improvements on GEFS it seems so far

big improvements on GEFS it seems so far

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same page in the mid Atlantic, but I do not expect below average snowfall in SNE. I see why you would go that way with the -PDO, but take a look at the +IOD years....most of the NE bone jobs were -IOD. Plus I see some residual N stream vigor due to the several year run of cool ENSO dominance. I agree that there could be a HECS that whiffs us, though. 

57-58, 86-87, 02-03....all great in SNE and all basin-wide to Modoki el Nino following triple cool ENSO. 

I also feel there may be another warm ENSO next year.

main reason I went BN for SNE was due to suppression issues, but now I think SNE could end up around N - especially more inland SNE(should prob have elaborated more lmao), i think there'll be a few miller A systems that go up the coast and hit NYC/BOS in addition to the MA

and i def should have added 2003 to my top analogs as well as polar, didn't add it bc of the +PDO/modoki, but looking back in retrospect i def should have 

sm posted an analog snowfall anomaly map that gen echoes my snowfall thoughts in terms of distrubtion on the EC on twitter: 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Also, be careful with 2009...its a great overall analog, but I disagree about it being a great POLAR analog.....that year was ascending fresh off of solar MIN. This year, while it still may be ascending, it's just about to solar max....exotically negative seasonal NAO departures are pretty rough to find approaching solar max. Plug ins pedestrian -NAO into that season and there would be no SNE none job. 

i didn't account for solar much in my forecast cause i couldn't find too much of a correlation w/ solar cycle and polar domain, and i thought other factors were going to override it, but ill prob have to look into it more later on

EPS still looks good

gefs cooked, more western ridging, cold air arrives earlier this run too w/ active STJ

12z eps is even better, now even some ridging in AK with nice +PNA and ofc -NAO/-AO


also best snow run so far

a bit late lmao, but i finished my winter forecast;its quite long so ill just put the analogs/snowfall/summary here

full read/analysis: https://tinyurl.com/223zv9ec

Analogs:

Top ENSO analogs: 1957/1965/1991*

MEI Analogs: 1986/2009

Top Pacific Analogs: 1965/1972/1995

Polar Analogs: 1957/1965/1987/2009

EMI/Orientation Analogs: 1982/1991*/2015

1957/1965/1972/1987/2009 are my highest weighted analogs

DJF Weighted Temp/Precip Composite


 

The ENSO will likely end up as a basin-wide(with more of a western lean like 1957/65 as Nino 4 warms and Nino 1+2 cools), with periods of Modoki forcing. I do not think that this is a wall to wall cold and snowy winter, but rather bouts of favorable patterns/timeframes, with most of the bulk being in the second half of the winter(Feb). I think we overall end up N-slightly AN for the winter, with Feb being BN, and Dec slightly AN, with Jan being around N. There’s too much variability and unpredictability to pinpoint specific temp anomalies for those specific months, but I still think we overall end up N-slightly AN.

Snowfall:
 

The range this winter is extremely large, with the maximum high-end potential being a top 5 winter or another horrible, low-snow winter. Strong+ ninos tend to be very boom or bust winters. With the exception of 1994/95, every analog year I had was either under 10” or over 30”. As I mentioned before, the main thing that will determine the fate of this winter is the polar domain. With the -QBO/++AMO, as well as bouts of favorable forcing setting up at times, the polar domain is looking good for this winter. While we have a -PDO, the strong El Nino will win out and override the state. The warmest anomalies being over and east of the dateline is a very good thing and very different to the forcing we’ve been seeing over the past few years. The active STJ should provide us with plenty of storm opportunities and ample moisture, snow or rain regardless. Thus, this is also the best chance since 2016 for a HECS/KU. Even if we don’t get a KU, the active STJ provides many opportunities for multiple SECS/MECS. 

That is why I went well AN for snowfall for this year. I doubt we see a near-normal year; either much BN or much AN. There is a lot of potential this year, and as of now, things seem to be looking good. The warm Atlantic will also provide extra moisture for storms. Going around the mid-range this year for snowfall doesn’t appear to be a good idea. This year definitely won’t be that cold overall, but we don’t need extreme back-to-back cold anomalies to get snowfall. All we need is one wave to time up right. With a Nino, the Pacific shouldn’t be too much of a problem this year. ENSO influences PDO, not the other way around; especially at this strength. 

I also went for a more N/S gradient in my map than a W/E gradient. The big nino years here had a more north-south orientation for the gradient than a west-east(obviously being more west still favors more). Although we’ll see some CAD storms, especially earlier in the season, I don’t think we’re going to be seeing too many of them overall. I think the PNA this year will average out to be neutral-slightly positive, with the western ridge flexing at times, increasing in frequency as the winter progresses. This should favor more Miller A/C type storms, which generally aren’t as W/E gradient oriented. 

Given how things appear to be progressing, and the best-looking year in several years, I believe that going bullish on a high snowfall winter is the right decision to make.

Summary:
 

Overall, I am sold for a well AN snowfall winter for the Mid-Atlantic and SE, and BN for NE. The strong Nino and STJ should heavily favor the MA/SE, and lead to suppression issues not much further north. ++AMO favors further S blocking, which in turn favors a further southern displaced track. Along with the STJ and other factors, the main focus of this winter on the EC will likely be the MA.

December, although not favored by Nino climatology, doesn’t look that bad anymore, and might be AN in snowfall, with a -NAO setting up for the early part of the month, and forcing returning to favorable phases by mid-late month. Although I expect it to still end up slightly AN, there’s definitely the possibility of the month ending up near normal. We should have a generally transient warmup in mid-Dec before returning to a favorable period later in the month. Although climo before mid-Dec is at best dubious, it is certainly possible to get some events, especially with the pattern setting up. For the month, I could see us getting a few minor events, and maybe even a moderate event. The very end of the month seems to be the best time period for something. I do not expect the PNA to be overall positive, but we could get a few transient +PNA flexes, along with HL blocking around this time. HL blocking setting up in December; and an -NAO is a very good sign for the winter and for higher-magnitude blocks to set up later in the winter. 

January looks to be alright, with the favorable forcing from late Dec continuing into the early part of the month. As stated previously, this month will generally be transitional, but the pattern at the start of the month will remain favorable. Thus, after early Jan, it appears to be quiet for a bit, until the end of Jan, where the pattern will become favorable again and continue into Feb. This is also when peak climo starts. Again we might see some +PNA flexes, but it should remain generally variable throughout the month. We should end up around N for this month temp-wise, and snowfall.

February will easily be the best part of this winter, with everything lining up: frequent +PNA flexes, favorable forcing setting up, HL blocking, active STJ, and overall peak climo should make Feb exciting. This isn’t too much of a surprise though, as Nino climatology heavily is backloaded and protrudes Feb as the coldest, snowiest month. We should definitely end up BN for this month in temps and AN in snowfall.

As for indices:

• PDO: slightly BN; -0.4 to -0.9

• AO: slightly BN; -0.2 to -0.5

• PNA: N-slightly AN; -0.1 to +0.3

• NAO: N; -0.2 to +0.2

• ENSO peak: 1.7-2.0(under super)

• ENSO Orientation: West-Tilted Basin-Wide
  
   

overall, should be a fun winter to track w/ the first real nino since 2015

99% correlation so its very good to see a -nao setting up rn

the events to make the -NAO occur downstream are in the short range now p sure

the pattern setting up on models seems similar to dec 2002


 

early dec 2002 pattern for reference