DarkSharkWX

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 06z GEFS has a really interesting pattern evolution, as the strong -AO ends up dislodging the TPV into Canada. there are also hints of a -NAO developing, which would help greatly with this kind of -EPO setup. a decent handful of members have a ridge bridge between the potential -NAO and -EPO, which would be lights out. there's even some split flow with the weak troughing over the SW US

Where do you get the first image from?

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We will never see that again.  Never

we will we've just been unlucky. lr forecasts have nina turning into mdt-strong nino by next winter and there are already some signs nina will start to fade soon like losing deep-layer cold

25 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

First step of getting out of a hole is: stop digging.  I'll be happy if the mild pacific air actually cuts off and then I'll worry about the recovery time.

We're already in an -EAMT that's retracting the jet

19 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

For the first half of Jan it seems to me that there will be an -EAMT event, retracting the extremely extended Pacific jet. But then we get another +EAMT(HP moving through east Asia) that starts extending the jet again into a spot thats more ideal for western ridging / aleutian low. Far out, but we'll see what happens when we get closer to it. Last time in December what happened was that the +EAMT was strong and overextended the jet.

 

 

It will take some time to recover from the mild Pacific air though

29 minutes ago, Heisy said:

All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change.


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For the first half of Jan it seems to me that there will be an -EAMT event, retracting the extremely extended Pacific jet. But then we get another +EAMT(HP moving through east Asia) that starts extending the jet again into a spot thats more ideal for western ridging / aleutian low. Far out, but we'll see what happens when we get closer to it. Last time in December what happened was that the +EAMT was strong and overextended the jet.

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Get your drinks out. HH GFS with the digital blue for next weekends storm. 

50/50 low back on GFS lol

NAM 3km shows a robust burst of snow with -4 omega right over the DGZ with saturated profile, indicating optimal dendrite growth. If this verified it would really be coming down, and there would be accumulating snow. This is a very good sounding, other than the marginal temps riding 0C isotherm. With dynamic cooling the ptype would be snow. Will send positive SD change when its done loading on TT.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nobody will deserve that more than we do. Feels like we've suffered enough!

Fr lmao

2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Dw we will get an above average winter soon, while yes our climo is decreasing, I think weve just been sort of unlucky these past 7 years with all of the ninas we've had.

And at least when we do get a good winter/good storm after all these winters it's going to feel soo satisfying

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Hey I'm not even mad at mext week's threat failing (was a tad annoyed but that's it. I wasn't too far in on investinf) as much as WHY it's failing. I'm worried about little to no snow in future years, every January looking like this, and no positive admist the more normal usual ways we fail. Like even if it was just A bad season, that would be one thing. But now this could be all future winters. Like legit the main thing to look forward to in DJF ain't gonna be there even as occasional as it was.

Thanks for telling me about the app, snowen...will definitely consider making use of it.

Dw we will get an above average winter soon, while yes our climo is decreasing, I think weve just been sort of unlucky these past 7 years with all of the ninas we've had.

11th storm is more north closer to phasing this run on GFS lol, we'll see if ensembles pick up on this

hrrr is nice

Gefs stayed steady

Doesn't the gefs have a lag to changes?

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Data sampling I understand. So there are no instruments gathering PAC data at the moment? 

But adding onto this - even if there is when it goes onshore we will get a lot more data of the system rather than it just being in the PAC

Namd

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Data sampling I understand. So there are no instruments gathering PAC data at the moment? 

Don't think so, at least in east Pacific, prob should ask someone else with more knowledge on that than me tho lmao

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What is this stuff you keep saying about data not being sampled properly? Is this seriously still a thing in 2023?

By sampling I mean when the energy got the 11th moves onshore and that data gets inserted into the models

while its still 8 days out and we won't know until the 11th energy gets sampled and sent into guidancde, i would still lower expectations just so that if samplation proves to be bad, you won't be as disappointed. on the bright side, at least GFS/CMC and their ensembles improved today. winter is not over after this storm too, and in the shorter range we have the 8th-9th threat that snuck up on us for the potential to be some of the region's first measurable snow

Just now, Steve25 said:

My point was that it keeps being repeated yet this thread continues to hype up this potential. It just doesn't make sense. We have a hard enough time getting substantial snows in general, then you add in that we're in a La Nina, and that this potential has no true cold air to tap into and the fact that there's any buzz in here just makes little sense. 

-ENSO/la nina is not the reason for this, we are in a very nino pattern right now with overextended jet... thats a nino problem not a nina lmao

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We don't know that...every model is jumping all over the place atm...no model has been stubbornly in one camp or the other, imo

This will prob continue until 11th data/energy gets sampled... until then lets hope things trend more favorable in general

is this the part where everyone freaks out over one op run?

Onto the EPS, let's see what it does. If it improves the main takeaway from this suite should be that all ensembles improved and ignoring the op runs(at this range anyways). The op runs are possible outcomes to what will happen tho fs