DarkSharkWX

Hopefully gefs follows the leader

Gfs looks better with more confluence

We won't know what happens with this storm until the 11th energy comes onshore in 2-4 days

2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Still a good signal for coastal

The stronger S/W is more noticeable this run
18z:

0z:

Still a good signal for coastal

50/50 low is weaker and less consolidated but the S/W is more amped this run

GEFS has stronger western ridging this run due to stronger trough in Pacific

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Definitely a lot of waffling up top with the gfs. Nice to see the canadian back on board. Biggest takeaway is the models definitely don’t have a handle on this at all yet. Couple more days we’ll have a better idea I’m sure. 

Yeah we'll know in about 2-4 days when the 11th energy moves on shore. It will determine if we phase with the NS trough and then go on the 50/50 benchmark or not

yup CMC is gonna ride up coast and paste us

GFS/CMC have snow

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Someone should start a thread for Sunday. It’s short range and will help keep this focused on late week potential. 

Just did -

made a thread for the potential snow threat on jan 8th-9th

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If the Op and ens go in opposite directions, which one usually caves to the other? 

(genuine question - I’m not up to date on models/ens skill performance)

Not sure but the GFS op has been doing horribly so...

And usually the ens follows op but the fact that it's holding out gives me a good feeling along with EPS/Euro which we know are better... We'll see tho

9 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Wow, strong signal continues to stay on EPS with many members having a 50/50 low

Wow, strong signal continues to stay on EPS with many members having a 50/50 low

Just now, stormtracker said:

Honestly good spot to be in rn. Def better than last run, and EPS will probably remain with a strong signal.

Here we go!

Def gonna be an interesting run

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Strong signal on EPS remains

Some good hits on some of the individual members

Strong signal on EPS remains

I'd gladly take my chances with this system. It has everything that we need for snowstorms in the MA, a strong banana Canadian high, a tall ridge over the Rockies that amplifies as the S/W moves through, and now a 50/50 low. As others have said earlier, MJO progression into favorable phases also supports this with convection in the IO shutting off and -VP anomalies over the Americas. Now we just have to watch and wait to see what happens. Gonna be an interesting week of tracking upcoming...

The overall pattern for 11th and 15th windows look good with east-based +PNA over central US building because of troughs in the Pacific and lots of Canadian ridging, which is also supported by NPJ being in a more favorable position(one worry is that guidance extends the jet again which would push it OTS though) and MJO progressing into phase 8. The main issue isn't the pattern but the airmass(cold air supply).

Imo 15th event is best chance we've had so far this year based on upper-air pattern and the strong signal on the ensembles as well as the MJO supporting it. If we can get a strong banana high over Canada and the SLP takes a good track cold air wouldn't be as much of a worry.

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Wow, very similar to EPS, can’t ask for a ton more at this range for a coastal signal. I’m hoping the 11th wave turns into a solid 50/50



.

yeah that would be classic for northeast/mid-atlantic looks like some members are gonna have it become a 50/50

Quite a strong signal for a coastal low on EPS considering it is more than 10 days out, imo best setup/chance we've had so far

And here's your weenie maps