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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    eh.. https://ibb.co/QXVtJqm
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Right, I've been thinking that since 2012 wrt Arctic ice melt. It might really accelerate in the coming years. They've been saying the Gulf Stream would slow down for a while, and it's nice to see that buckle without really much 500mb help. I mean there was a weak -NAO, but overnight lows 4 degrees above average says that something greater is going on.. I wonder if that cold push on July 31 over Caribou has some extra-meaning.. probably not but it's interesting. Antarctica ice regression is now-time I think as we had a big global warming push Jan-Mar, and it's timely being now realized. Nice to see the Earth be on par.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah it can become pretty time consuming. A lot of Strong El Nino's though were bad because of the negative subsurface waters below Nino 3.4, causing a -PNA in the N. Pacific, vs just being plain out warm as an El Nino. El Nino should realistically not correlate with a NP High, but a NP Low. If you re-analyze the data, giving weight, the subsurface ENSO = N. Pacific looks much better year to year. The MEI correlated at 0.80 and Nino 3.4 SST correlated at 0.70 to the Winter N. Pacific pattern.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's the gravity wave, Kelvin and Rossby that do all the shaping. They used to have ftp free sites on the CDC where you could make a dataset of anything. I tested all 8+ ENSO variables (OLR, 850mb winds, 200mb winds, SLP, SSTs in different areas, etc, etc. I published the work on easternuswx, that there was a significant correlation difference to the central-subsurface region vs various ENSO measurements in now-time. Now after, I've seen it play out again, in real time. This is a 500mb correlation in the North Pacific. If you want to validate it, just keep it in mind. It's a lot of work to make a custom index, and the best of my knowledge the ftp's on the CDC aren't available anymore.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really interesting timing with Atlantic hurricane season. I wouldn't be surprised to see anti-correlations take place here in the Atlantic wrt hurricane season.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Beautiful pink Mammatus here in Harford Co., in front of a blue-gray-purple sky. It's rained twice, but there is still a decent amount of instability.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a good perspective. If the subsurface defaults back to zero, I would worry about a -PNA this Winter. Everyone will go, "it's strong El Nino 72-73-like", but really the subsurface was just negative that Winter, as with other El Nino events that didn't really work out in the east. Or, ill put it this way, if the subsurface goes back to neutral, I would worry about NAO the anti-correlation that has been happening, or a +NAO is correlating with -epo/+pna, and a -NAO is correlating with +EPO/-PNA. The pattern is more W->E, taking the "North anomaly pattern" out recently, if there is no strong ENSO variable. No strong ENSO forcing would keep this stream going. People don't realize that it's not so much about where the ENSO event is based, as the broad central-subsurface indicator, at least in this satellite era.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty good instability https://ibb.co/cxhy1jk Behind the line even https://ibb.co/sVdXpyT
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    3000+ CAPE along I-95. https://ibb.co/NKJ3L6P
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    The jet stream is pretty far north across the world. There is a lot of potential energy for warmer conditions..
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I keep waiting for it, and it never happens.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's been relative cool, There was a global warming spike, and we have been cooler in comparison to that.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice -EPO for the next ~10 days. Should keep us fairly cool.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again, the central-subsurface is cooling on a daily basis. The black-box is the PNA-indictor, I've researched/found predicts more than other ENSO measurements. https://ibb.co/hXxSFYq
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since inception, it's 13-4 at getting the overall NAO state, and 9-8 within the predicted 0.54 SD accuracy. It's a May-Sept measurement, that I was going to make a post about soon, Last August it really warmed, so I was waiting to post.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Central-subsurface has a -2c pocket. This is the correlator to N. Pacific pattern. In 72-73 despite a Strong Nino, central subsurface was -3 to -4, and that Winter had a strong -PNA. I'm more worried about the -PNA possibility than a Strong El Nino causing warm or whatever.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino looks weak in the subsurface https://ibb.co/qsv4Ytm There is a correlation with -50 to -250m, 180W to 140W, between many "nowtime events", I've found stronger than surface SSTs. If you look at the central-subsurface, it's not even an El Nino right now. It will be interesting to see if El Nino effects don't happen so much this season.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Now we have an area of -2 in the central-subsurface https://ibb.co/qsv4Ytm Remember, we had a wave here in the Winter/Spring that was +3-6 in the central region before Nino 1+2 and 3 warmed. Those who think this will develop significantly in Nino 3.4 just based on normal progression may be wrong... for the current time, it's out of fuel.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've been surprised it's been raining so much here in NE MD. We have 10"+ since it started a month ago.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still have juicy LI's https://ibb.co/m0vBQ8s
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Lapse Rates and CAPE is pretty decent. Another beautiful sunset with a sliver of moon in the sky. clear skies
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at the warnings https://radar.weather.gov/station/KCLE/standard LI https://ibb.co/FkpzH99
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    It feels like instability has picked up a little. I know last night it felt like it was 92 degrees and rain when I went to sleep.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    That bow near Toronto looks interesting. SPC has >40% between 4z and 12z. It seems like there is a Slight risk every day though, with not much clouds in the sky.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    If you correlate to .2101 sigma potential, central-subsurface correlates more to 500mb in the N. Pacific Ocean.
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