Stormchaserchuck1

1"??? re: everyone else: tran·si·tion 1. the process or a period of changing from one state or condition to another. The Aleutian ridge is just starting to insert itself, so be careful for what happens next. 15 days away... lol 7 replies

You ever done mushrooms?

We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge.

Yeah, it's mostly enjoyable talking about science.. but everyone talking about everyone's agenda is weird. The science will verify or not. Yet it seems that nothing comes forth here as "the truth" (very few people actually care to be honest). Just kind of lazy posting is all I'm annoyed with, no big deal, mostly enjoyable making friends and learning and getting better

All the sociology stuff in a weather forum is kind of annoying.

The El Nino does help +PNA chances. I am interested to see how it plays out though, because we have had a greater-than-ENSO -PNA happening for the past several Winter's. If we post an Aleutian trough this Jan-Feb it will overall look like a short range high ENSO correlation. Yeah, a -epo doesn't hurt. I would love to see us build ridging in NW Canada and AK, but it has thus far been only temporary Since 2019, -NAO's have correlated with +epo/-pna and visa-versa at >0.40, since 2013 the correlation is 0.30. It will be interesting to see if this correlation holds and the PNA goes negative this Winter when the NAO goes negative.

Natural Gas at $2.40, when Gasoline is >$3 is a warm Winter signal. It was low in 2015 at this time though, but not compared to CL. 2011 is a pretty good NG-CL match. https://ibb.co/3sDYdPF I wonder what the energy mets are forecasting.

I post this here too: I once again used that December will be a +2SD +EPO (dominate trough over Alaska) to roll forward to January, and again see that the very warm conditions usually continue. Dec Analogs: https://ibb.co/TTnjcDS Dec Temp map: https://ibb.co/cxjrYFz Jan roll forward 500mb pattern: https://ibb.co/rdsYCpF Jan roll forward US Temp map: https://ibb.co/zbqBKKL These roll forward means are giving us a baseline +2 to +4 Jan to work with. Not saying it will absolutely happen, but the signal is pretty strong. It's an anomalous event, this +EPO Dec. This too: This is what top-30 December analogs (US) since 1948 looks like for January: Dec map: https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY Jan roll-forward https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC Modeled Stratosphere warming is a variable that could make these bust, moreso late in the month January, as that supports more -NAO conditions. Something that has happened lately is, -NAO's have correlated with -PNA/+EPO and visa-versa, the correlation has been strong since 2019 (0.40>), since 2013 (>0.30)

Oh no! An Aleutian ridge The LR pattern is "ok", the heights are kind of low despite being somewhat favorable in the index areas. We have not, since the El Nino developed, seen a long sustained +PNA, so let's see what happens. I'm a little worried about the roll forward Dec +EPO-Upper Midwest warm look. If the pattern changes and blocking develops up north great, but the Aleutian low looks favorable for 4 days then it phases out a bit on the current models. The roll forward is a -PNA look, so this is the make or break time.. all global models showed a cold January, and this is the time it should happen if it's going to happen (LR ensembles are at Jan 4-5+)

"Very warm" is actually for the Upper Midwest. They will finish the month some +10-15F. The post said I was primarily focusing on +EPO December's, so I'm not sure why it became EC-centric, maybe because I'm posting it in this forum. The "above average" usually spreads to the eastern 2/3 of the US in January, and this was my 2nd analog match showing that so it's something to watch out for. It also rolls forward to somewhat of a warm March, average February.

I know, you like when I make a judgement about something. It makes it fair game.

I once again used that December will be a +2SD +EPO (dominate trough over Alaska) to roll forward to January, and again see that the very warm conditions usually continue. Dec Analogs: https://ibb.co/TTnjcDS Dec Temp map: https://ibb.co/cxjrYFz Jan roll forward 500mb pattern: https://ibb.co/rdsYCpF Jan roll forward US Temp map: https://ibb.co/zbqBKKL These roll forward means are giving us a baseline +2 to +4 Jan to work with. Not saying it will absolutely happen, but the signal is pretty strong. It's an anomalous event, this +EPO Dec.

EPS was not a good model last year. Like 10 times they showed digital snow and a good pattern.. 18z GEFS is a bit concerning at the end: The Aleutian low is evaporating and the NAO doesn't really have a good loading pattern to go negative.. I get the demand for the Euro to have ensembles, but man it's off

Not a good bet, my friend. I put $100,000 on the Ravens 21:1 super bowl odds preseason. lol just kidding. I said it on here like 3 times though

You're young.. this is a good team.

In January, the PNA region starts impacting us colder vs Dec 0.1 to 0.5 difference. We need it to not dry up on models though right as we approach Jan 1, lol

I did + and - matches. About 15 of each, 30 total. For some reason it's having trouble showing in the composite list. Point is pretty clear though that the pattern carries. I found that the EPO-region which is 2SD's positive this December carries to Jan-Feb at 0.3 correlation, or about 60%. It's not saying anything will absolutely happen, but it's a baseline.

This is what top-30 December analogs (US) since 1948 looks like for January: Dec map: https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY Jan roll-forward https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC

New CPC has us above average Dec 30-Jan 12 https://ibb.co/6ywLWkH

This December will be a 2SD +EPO. As per CDC monthly correlation composites, The EPO has a 0.3 correlation from December to January and February. Gives us about a 60% of happening imo, just based on that one variable.

Historically, the Dec +EPO pattern carries to Jan-March. These are the top 30 analogs to December pattern: December 30 analogs https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY Roll-forward January https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC Roll-forward February https://ibb.co/QnqH2wn Roll-forward March https://ibb.co/QDv0GWG

It looks to me like we are losing the Aleutian low (on the models) as we head toward New Years..

PDO and AMO have historically, gone through cyclical phases in the last few decades. This makes both of them modulate indexes vs global warming. It may be a coincidence, but since this latest +AMO phase started in 1995, we have seen 15 La Nina's, and 9 El Nino's (including current one). I do think that in the 2nd half of this +AMO phase, the El Nino's will catch up.

With December being the 3rd warmest population-weighted Dec on record, it got me once again testing the Natural Gas thesis. This takes out a lot of borderline years, and just calculates the absolute highest and lowest since 1995: (map default is low NG price (vs high)) https://ibb.co/dfwzcWm As you can see, the Pacific looks a lot like what we have seen, or will see, in Dec 2023. The biggest difference is the +NAO (-50dm) as the strongest global signal, somewhat conflicting a 10-day -NAO period in early Dec. A lot of people say that there is correlation to the early Dec -NAO and the rest of the Winter, but I think sustainability this year could be hard. With a big Stratosphere warming projected, that factor may definitely give us some -NAO, but I don't see a strong -NAO lasting through the Winter, if anything it may average around neutral, going back and forth between negative and positive until March.

We're in a bad decadal cycle in the Pacific (last 25 years): https://ibb.co/nkdRM0v And a higher frequency of La Nina https://ibb.co/GnzTZ0y La Nina is up on El Nino 15-9 since we went +AMO in 1995.