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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is a warm pocket by the dateline that in relative terms is greater than the eastern regions anomaly right now.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino is rapidly shifting to west-based, and there are no negative anomalies below the western ENSO region. December is the 1st month where there are strong correlated effects in the N. Pacific from the NPH to PNA... we should be golden for a mostly +PNA Winter I think.. The subsurface is different from "Strong Nino's" that had cold water in the western subsurface.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    The subsurface is also rapidly warming, the highest it's been in the event so far. Also to note is there are no negative anomalies in the western ENSO subsurface (a lot of stronger Nino's in the past had cold water below Nino 3.4-4 at this time of the year).
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty good -NAO here. The pattern isn't half bad. +pna building
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the El Nino is becoming west-based.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I do like that energy dropping into the SW in the LR, for the first few days of December. It implies a bigger storm system moving across the country. Ensembles are split, but some want to develop a -PNA at the time, which I would be weary of because ENSO subsurface is + and strengthening, which actually correlates to +pna, but the slight signal for -pna is on LR models right now.. NAO has been fluctuating back and forth on models too, but if we get the -NAO scenario like the LR 18z gfs ensembles have, that piece of energy moving to us Dec 3-5 could be something to watch. We only average 2-3" of snow in December across the region. Some Winter's every piece works out like 02-03, this will be the first test I think. I know we have images of Pacific warm air in our minds from the last few Winters...
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well, yeah.. but it's a variable. No one realizes how big of a bust last Winter was because it was a La Nina.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Natural Gas dropping from 3.6 to 2.9 lately.. Under 3.0 implies a +NAO Winter.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Fwiw, Natural Gas is trading at 2.9, down from 3.6, which implies a +NAO Winter. Greenland 500mb correlates at +80dm DJF with NG. https://ibb.co/c6X7MyN
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Im about to cancel 24-25 Winter.. we likely will have a +QBO to go along with Nina (same as last Winter)
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z GFS gives us some flakes early next week
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pacific changes from unfavorable to favorable for cold 11/20 AO goes negative 11/24 Models try to give NAO negative as a 3rd wave 11/30, but I'd watch for fluctuations, as the last few weeks has had a lot of NAO changes at that range. Then there is signal for wave dropping into the SW 12/1-2, possibly timing with -NAO lifting out around 12/3-5, but that's far away..
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Historically, when strong Nino's don't act like Nino's and produce -PNA's we get strong -NAO patterns in the Wintertime, but let's see what happens. Nov correlation to El Nino and N. Pacific pattern is less than 0.1, since 1948.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Usually -EPO's verify a little bit cooler anyway.. The Pacific high is a bit south of the classic -EPO position, but the models have been in heavy run-to-run flux and we are in an El Nino..
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    The +PNA is not ending up over the NPH (North Pacific High) position at all so far.. that (+NPH) is usually what happens in east-based Nino events.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    It seems like everytime we are dry since 2002, we get very wet periods soon thereafter. I said back in the Summer I wanted a dry Fall..
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nothing Nino about this.. strong -PNA it looks like for the month of November https://ibb.co/3dppvDs https://ibb.co/YPPdM43 Like I said before, slight correlation to February, but not December.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    BWI: 48” DCA: 37” IAD: 50” RIC: 26” Tiebreaker SBY: 34”
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good post. It's lazy to think that an El Nino produces a -PNA December because a few examples show that. The natural state is +PNA.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    In 2005, I made timeseries of all indexes, and found a strong correlation with N. Atlantic SSTs May-Sept, as a lead predictor to the following Winter's NAO. I don't have the custom index anymore, but you can somewhat see it here: https://ibb.co/M9W0Q63 In the next 17 years, I tested it real time, and found it 13-4 in getting the raw NAO state correct, and in the beginning I estimated a 0.54 SD ("0" is 50% chance of -0.54 to +0.54), and that verifies 9-8, since 2005. Here is this the boxes I calculate, although the most accurate way goes from May-Sept (not May-Aug): https://ibb.co/Y8bTrWL This years SST index comes out at -0.05, so a 50% chance of the DJFM NAO being -0.59 to +0.49 [CPC]. So my supposingly successful method is predicting a "Neutral NAO" for Winter 23-24. Here is this year's raw map and plot: https://ibb.co/ZmQyz8k https://ibb.co/Hx1Mjcs
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    No -NAO today lol https://ibb.co/4mqVZzZ
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z GFS is now developing a -NAO in the MR/LR where it used to have +NAO. Way Above average model run changes since the Spring.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    The NAO actually has a high correlation to precip. 0.4 in December, and near 0.5 for the Winter as a whole. This is why it was so disappointing that last years -NAO didn't deliver: It happened with a wetter than average pattern. I found that there were 2/11 -NAO December's that had a wet pattern (one being last year). I would take a favorable Pacific/+NAO for snow chances 20-30% greater than even.. (of course, you know that when -NAO lifts out we usually get a storm.)
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think as long as the central-ENSO subsurface stays warm it will be hard for a -PNA to sustain. It's still warming despite the neutral MEI
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    These runs are really fluctuating from one to another. Even the ensembles. A few days ago they had a strong LR -PNA, now it's gone.
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