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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Wow!! Looks like El Nino/-QBO combo crushed it again (the results since 1948 are better on both sides of the coin than theorized impact)
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/whwp.data Western Hemisphere Warm Pool Monthly anomaly of the ocean surface area warmer than 28.5° C in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. Shattering records in June-Sept: 9.87 11.06 11.09 10.45 https://ibb.co/QQwCGrT Dec-Mar roll forward of June-Sept record: (This is what the global models have been showing) https://ibb.co/MpBftYd https://ibb.co/XVLhvqP
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    The +PNA correlates with cold in January, but not so much December Dec +PNA: https://ibb.co/tbtHzyR https://ibb.co/MC130Pk Jan +PNA: https://ibb.co/ZGQMXy0 https://ibb.co/cw1tPVc 0.1 to 0.5 difference. Models have us going +PNA at hr204-384+ but we are more -PNA before hr204. El Nino is the mechanism behind potential +PNA, and at +2.0c, that looks to still be here in January.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    They melted too fast. 02-03 was a much better Winter. I would trade off that big High pressure over Greenland lately..
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Man those Euro weeklies/EPS are bad.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a pretty good Aleutian Low signal at Day+12. -150dm https://ibb.co/XY9t1gw
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    The composite is -150dm between the Aleutian islands and Gulf of Alaska region.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    +GLAAM is usually a pattern that favors a GOA low, and south-negNAO-ridge, or within a range of those two conditions. Right now models are not so much showing that, so it will be interesting to see if we trend towards that in the coming days. It tends to be a cold pattern in the SE, US.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm thinking we have a strong ongoing trend in February with a +150dm mean/average Aleutian high (-PNA) for the last 6 Winter's. It has exceeded the correlation for ENSO at 1.8/1. If I had to make a guess, it would be that January is cooler and February is warmer, although we have the chance of having a big -NAO/-AO in February, because of Strong El nino/Strong -QBO impact on the Stratosphere. I think if Feb is -PNA in this 7th year it will likely happen together with -NAO.. or, if the downwelling Stratosphere warming becomes a -NAO, the Pacific at +EPO/-PNA will correlate, because that's what's been happening lately. Of course, the El Nino is +2.1c so that could rule the pattern, but we are not seeing this so far and Natural Gas is near record low when compared to Oil or Gas, usually a warm Winter, or +NAO, signal.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^That's not a good look. We would be flooded with surface warmth.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Natural gas down to $2.46. ya'll doubted me, but here comes the +EPO/+NAO pattern, at least for some time.. There are methods that do work better, but it's one thing to keep in mind as the correlation is very strong.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z Euro has <480dm near the Baffin island Day 7.. ++NAO. No one has said it but the NAO has trended much more positive in the last few days. Watch out, because +epo and +nao if they happen together can be a very warm pattern.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    WOOOHOOO Ravens! You guys are pretty unbearable complaining, the game could have gone either way. What a win!!
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Latest 21z HRR snow totals Like I said, the NAM and GFS snow depth maps from yesterday and the last few days nailed it. They are the way to go.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Those maps are not a qualified 10mb warming event
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    West of the 1058mb High in the Davis Straight is rain lol
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    599dm SE of Greenland! That has to be a record The SE usually averages BN in such a pattern. It's called a south-based -NAO (one of 6 major patterns in the N. Hemisphere).
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z gfs: Widespread 0.1-0.5"
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    One thing I have noticed is our tendency for -NAO around Christmas since 2017, in the midst of a pretty +NAO time. Here's +1-3 days from 12/25 since 2017: https://ibb.co/nw0L2D6
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is more accurate
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Keeping a ridge over the NE, but if we see the same Pacific in January we are likely to see a trough lol
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    snow depth maps always verify the best
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    This forum has an obsession with the element water. In fact, water is very heavy and does not quickly hold or make trends. So many years it's about snow accreting or declination but it really means very little. Same with the PDO, low and high pressures care not about water temps. Air>water.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah because cold air is coming in from the west.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Opposite of last year https://ibb.co/dL5941t
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