Stormchaserchuck1

I think we're seeing signs that there could be a good Winter period coming, but it's not going to be a wall-to wall Winter at this point. For one, the Aleutian ridge is not nearly as strong this year as previous years, and that has been our kryptonite.

That's probably rain verbatim. Models backed off on the -epo today that they had developed yesterday around that time.

That's a good +NAO on the Euro Days 7-10. This is what I was talking to psuhoffman about before, the NAO and epo/pna are inversely correlated these days.

Central-subsurface has moderated a lot in the last few weeks. https://ibb.co/hm3v3XS The event has probably peaked, or is close to peaking. Still not really getting those deep negatives below the western subsurface, like you see in years where we transition from El Nino to La Nina.

Some of you might be surprised that -EPO (raw) is our best pattern for snowfall:

You might be surprised that some of the cold patterns are not big differences in snowfall overall because of less precip. First the NAO, here is temperature and precipitation correlations in the US Winter: https://ibb.co/0ZTGpM4 https://ibb.co/sFrQvTf NYC: 0.45 air temp correlation 0.45 precipitation correlation so really, a Net "0" air temp + precip correlation to NAO(-) in NYC. DCA: 0.47 air temp correlation 0.48 precipitation correlation so a Net "-0.01" temp + precip correlation to NAO(-) in DCA. I think it's tricky because in the NE, the average temperature dips down to the 40's and upper 30s, which is slightly above borderline-freezing. So a little cold air may be seen to be valued more than it actually is. Second the PNA, here is temperature and precipitation correlations in the US Winter: https://ibb.co/6RfXMMT https://ibb.co/r3BGBnX There is actually a negative correlation here! NYC: 0.05 air temp correlation 0.30 precip correlation so really, a Net "-0.25" air temp + precip correlation to PNA(+) in NYC DCA: 0.20 air temp correlation 0.38 precip correlation so a Net "-0.18" temp precip correlation to PNA(+) in DCA. Again, because it's a cold pattern, and temps on average don't go below the upper 30s/40s, it may seem like those few degrees to freezing are a bigger deal than they are but the conditions are much drier. Third, the EPO, here is temperature and precipitation correlations in the US Winter: https://ibb.co/8BJ9Hjk https://ibb.co/k358zck EPO has the most +correlation to snowfall, or favorable phase -EPO net resulting in +snowfall NYC: 0.38 air temp correlation 0.12 precip correlation so a Net "+0.26" air temp + precip correlation to EPO(-) in NYC DCA: 0.39 air temp correlation 0.08 precip correlation so a Net "+0.31" temp precip correlation to EPO(-) in DCA Out of the PNA, NAO, and EPO, the EPO is the only index that has +raw correlation to snowfall (air temp + precip raw). [AO is similar to the NAO: 0.5 temp correlation in DCA 0.42 temp correlation in NYC 0.52 precip correlation in DCA 0.42 precip correlation in NYC so a "-0.02" Net precip + temp in DCA to -AO a "Net 0" precip + temp in NYC to -AO Net colder patterns are thought to be more snow-favorable because of where we stand with that 32 degree freezing line.

This isn't so bad https://ibb.co/2FK2CjN kind of a big change

About 75/25 likely to see +PNA in a January El Nino. https://ibb.co/qCDbmYw

The last 3 have occurred with a -pna/+epo when they downwelled. It should be interesting to see what this one does, it is a Stronger Nino.

In January, that N. Pacific/GOA trough correlates with a trough in the EC. Hopefully it can build further, that's one run with it.

Can I get the NO ACCESS TO PR/OT off my member tag? How long is that going to last anyway, I don't even remember doing anything too bad a year ago.

Take the Ravens +5.5. With 2:00 left in 4th quarter they are 13-0, only two teams to ever do that were the '72 Dolphins and '07 Patriots. Team doesn't have a lot of weaknesses, unless Lamar gets hurt. Even so, I think Huntley would start on half of NFL teams. Lamar Jackson is 11-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog (9-4 outright). The only ATS loss came in 2019 against the Chiefs on the hook when he lost by 5 as 4.5-point underdog after the Ravens failed on a late 2-point conversion that would have covered. The Ravens are 18-3-1 ATS as underdogs since drafting Jackson in 2018 (12-10 outright).

Lowering heights over AK https://ibb.co/X7kTSx8 Taken literally, we would be about to go warm.

The tran·si·tion appears underway https://ibb.co/120TKFb Sorry but nothing looks good to me until after Jan 6th. We want a low pressure in the N. Pacific Ocean in January.

Opposite of this https://ibb.co/TB17wQr It can downwell any way, usually within ^that range. It's a high pressure in the upper atmosphere and it usually correlates to -AO in about +15-40 days, depending when in the cold season it occurs.

Since the 09-10 super snow-melt season, these are our above average snowfall Winter's https://ibb.co/dPRKWq0 As you can see +NAO in that composite exceedes even a favorable Pacific. fwiw. I don't not agree that a -NAO is usually good

I don't like blaming things on SSTs, water is much slower than air. But there is something happening globally that is giving us more -PNA conditions right now, no doubt. I think it might be slightly tied into the NAO. Just thinking out loud.

Yes, I found the 0.3 on CDC monthly correlation composites, then came up with 30 individual EPO-analogs (since 1948), and 30 individual "Warm US/Upper Midwest Dec analogs" (since 1948): which back it up, at least for January.

Heavy cloud thickness, snow days, albeit flurries. A sustained, +PNA is really the key we need to unlock that imo. We just yesterday had a +594dm ridge in the north Atlantic near Nova Scotia. The Hadley Cell is in an expansion phase right now, this is hooking up with -NAO at times even. I think we have trended in the last few years toward better cloud patterns, when the snowstorms were melting so fast early in the 2000s, that was a sign we were not heading in the right direction. I'm not ignoring how much of a +EPO December this is though: History says it carries forward at a 0.3 correlation.

You don't seem like the kind of person that would do psychedelics. Imagine doing it in a LES snowband mmm. Weed is overrated, don't get the appeal it just caught on for some reason

Honestly I would like to see the NAO + (as a dominant pattern). I think that will correlate with a -epo/+pna. Something in the global pattern is ticking this way. Otherwise just give me consistency in the models at this point: an Aleutian low, and Natural Gas not trading as low as $2.50 could help.

The Stratosphere warming, which is the favored pattern, seems projected to happen. Every Stratosphere warming since March 2018 though has become a -NAO just as we had -PNA develop at the same time. Say that ENSO is different this year, and that is somewhat true, but don't give it too much weight: We are not posting a monster N. Pacific low so far like '82, '97, '15.. the event continues to act weak/moderate

Yeah they are going to show that, we have a +2.1c El Nino and -19 QBO.

We had the pattern in 65-66. It was because of a +3SD -NAO that we ended up cold. And that's a pattern that seems to be phasing out lately (-NAO driven cold). I am somewhat worried about the correlation we have had since 2019, and 2013, of -NAO with -pna/+epo, but it's possible that we could do better, yes. The roll forward stuff gives us a 65/35 chance of seeing some kind of moderation in January, but if not, great

Yeah I love that N. Pacific ridge and WC trough. EPS though hasn't yet proven useful