Stormchaserchuck1

I still think we're going to go warmer after 18z

I'd be curious to see if a 3 sigma -NAO can overpower a 1 sigma -PNA right now to be honest. The -PNA may verify greater.

It's been since March 2018 that we had -NAO-based trough/cold in the east. Every other time it has happened with a -PNA or +EPO and we have gone warmer.. I don't really see this trend stopping, the correlation is close to 0.40 since 2019. My roll forwards did show the Pacific changing around 1-19.. The GEFS starts doing it 1-18. But the -NAO happens on the model 1-8/17 with it looks like a slight SE ridge. This is something that I think is going to stick, (we are in the heart of this cycle).

The 18z gfs ensembles had a lot of rain members. One even tracked the low into Chicago

more accurate representation of model

Here you go guys I've seen these maps verify the best since they started coming out... The temps are too marginal for good snowstorm.

It's warming in the central-subsurface a little bit again. A +3c pool isn't that much of a degradation off its highs. TAO/Triton is probably the best site to frequent for now time updates of the subsurface.

Since 1948, The MAM ONI to SON ONI has gone >+1.1 19 times (this is the 20th time). I had previously thought there was a strong tendency for ENSO-state to reverse the next year, but you guys way earlier in the thread showed that ENSO is probably more of a 1+ year continuum, albeit seasonal things like typical late-Winter weakening. Of those 19 events, 8/19 (42%) saw the same ENSO state the following year [+14 months NDJ ONI], 6/19 (32%) were Neutral, and 5/19 (26%) reversed to the opposite ENSO state.

Hello, Thanks. I have been observing weather models almost daily since 2016, and I have found them to underestimate the amount of surface-layer warmth of a -PNA pattern more times than not. If you look at a historical composite of DCA or BWI snowstorms, the strongest feature with a 50/50 low is a GOA/Aleutian island trough. On the models we have that needed trough digging into the West Coast US, instead. Here is a 500mb correlation map with January N. Pacific: https://ibb.co/sJPTkdB https://ibb.co/10d2BGN As you can see, that N. Pacific region posts a +0.53 500mb correlation over DCA/BWI at that time. Here is the 500mb map of 1 day before the storm moves NE. The cold air is pretty cutoff. https://ibb.co/tsF0xLh In my experience, places along I-95 do not do well in these setups because the surface temperature ends up reaching 35-36 degrees. I know we are getting closer to where the entire N. Hemisphere pattern is of less concern, but it is still 5-6 days away, which I find is still valid for a trend away from snowstorm (I-95). I'm just saying this same scenario has happened that way 9/10x recently, so watch for the same model error/adjustment. I would say mostly rain to <1" for Balt/DC.

A few days ago there wasn't a primary low in Kentucky. You guys can say it's trending better but PSU actually posted something good about where the thermal boundary is. I think in future trend, the cold air may get cutoff. It would be different if there was a low pressure in the N. Pacific ocean, and for snowstorms in the Mid Atlantic, that is a major piece. I've seen this pattern set up a lot over the last few Winters, and we are still far ways out (5-6 days), and they almost always trend warmer to verification. Over the PNA/GOA region, especially lately, you need a Low , not a High. It has downstream effects not completely estimated in the model at this range (5-6 days) from what I've seen.

Let's see how it trends in the coming days, as it stands now the GFS is very close to a total miss for I-95.

You guys should know what to look at in trend. There is a reason the NWS identifies index regions as special in their analysis, because these often don't fluctuate as much, and dictate future model trends. You would think the model would be updated by now but it's not

The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding on

It seems to be like an extended warm front https://ibb.co/Mck2C4B And do you know what else, it's going to warm up after the storm because of what's coming in from the Pacific

Really just hard to hit one blank when coming off of 7 years of very below average. We found that ENSO is a continuum vs something that reverses.

The EPS showed us getting snow a lot last year. I think they had a few long range patterns with +PNA and -EPO but it might be because they are based on '91-20 normals. I'm sorry for going against the majority, but I don't think the EPS is that great. I think its idea comes solely from demand (good ECMWF model).

I'm just happy in the possibilities of what to experience in the playoffs, the Chiefs aren't doing well. It's a pretty easy league this year, overall. Baltimore definitely seems primed to win the SB. I remember obviously having that knowing about the '2000 squad, and the '2012 team when they started winning in the playoffs I knew they were unstoppable. Same kind of feeling this year. 2019, there were a lot of question marks/weak spots. No weak spots this year.

'96 was my favorite but I'm young. I like the colder dry snows and legit blizzard conditions. I feel like they should happen more often. It's important to remember that since 1998, the -PNA has been the pattern as much as 62/38, so it's something cyclical, and not like GW-driven. We've had a La Nina base state almost 2:1. I personally think right now, in this little bit of time, +NAO and +PNA is our best potential pattern for snowfall, The W->E (anomaly) nature of the pattern is moreso than N->S, and +nao's are wetter.

DCA +4.5 NYC +4.2 BOS +3.4 ORD +2.0 ATL+4.8 IAH +4.4 DEN +0.5 PHX -1.0 SEA -2.0

Good post.. It's just too warm. Because the source is in the N. Pacific ocean, the odds of a favorable trend to the end are pretty low (the region doesn't fluctuate as much). Add to the fact that this Pacific region has hooked up with a SE ridge more than normal over the past few Winters (despite -NAO) and you have a real "problem". Jan correlation is also +53%. This may end up raining all the way to State College. In the end of the 18z GEFS we have that strong -PNA look, and it's a pretty good anomaly projection for 15-16 days away on the mean.. linking with now a trough over the NW and it's going to take at least a little time to move away from that pattern. It's not going to snow in that pattern I think. My analogs showed that when we have a dominant PNA that changes, we hang warm for a few days after. I've said Jan 20th before something favorable develops, but it could be later.

It looks like the long term Stratosphere warming is no longer projected to happen. The problem I think is following the EPS when it has not been a great model. The consecutive runs showing big anomalies was the indicator, but the GEFS now has net negative 10mb anomalies in a week. We are still posting +valid warming results in the CDC daily plot for the 4th consecutive day on 12-29 https://ibb.co/zJYVh8m 12 days is what's need to count in my stats as a valid Stratosphere warming event, for the valid NAO correlation.

Ravens came in as only a 3 point favorite at home.. for some reason Vegas doesn't like Lamar Jackson. I think it was easy to tell that the offense has been on fire

You don't mind that N. Pacific high? It's been overpowering the NAO since 2018-19. I know it is not as strong on model but it still has been holding more weight. look at the N. American pattern starting to flatten out a bit too with more of a SW trough.

Then Det going for 2 when they have 10yds to go (which is like a 30% probability). This is after they didn't go for it 4th and goal from the 4 when the game was 10-10. That's why it's hard to watch football: There is a site called advancedNFLstats and it calculates the odds of everything, and basically teams are almost always wrong not going for it on 4th down.

I'm just saying, I'm 10/10 for seeing that pattern in the Pacific at Day 7 and the storm going to rain or phased out.