Stormchaserchuck1

I think the two snowy Winters of 13-14 and 14-15 both had big +NAO's. I just say let's see if it can sync up with +PNA, if it can, like 14-15 (which was an El Nino), maybe it will be a snowy pattern. We've been having a ridge hook up with Greenland/Davis Strait ridging, so maybe we can likewise extend a trough south from Greenland too? That's my guess. It's an unmistakable pattern right now. I have to worry about Feb PNA though, because in the last 6 years we've had a mean of +150dm, which is even a few std's above enso. What a test for El Nino conditions coming up in the N. Pacific!

I get what you're saying.. The Euro also trended colder at hr120. See how it's 75% more cold over the US, just holding that other 25% with more cutting from the storm system (timing). Usually +heights over or just north of Alaska is a cold trend, but not everything's perfect.

I think the overall ridge is oriented a little too far south to really be a cold pattern. See how it's over the Bering Sea https://ibb.co/Fz2njZ0 That's -PNA territory https://ibb.co/nDVv5jq

Day 10 Euro has a 552dm block over the Davis Strait and the storm still cuts up and is rain.. as is the pattern, The Aleutians islands having a big ridge/block is overwhelming -NAO almost all the time since 18-19.

I think the problem is that ridging extends down south into the PNA area. I've been studying EPO vs PNA, and they both happen a little further north in latitude than what you would expect. EPO is a little north of Alaska, and usually has a weak trough under it: https://ibb.co/tc1329x https://ibb.co/ZHHbxNm Having more heights over Alaska is a good step, but it's still a fairly weak pattern, and the N. Pacific high is a little more firm too. I like the 16/17 of all the potential going forward.. I've found when the NAO is deeply negative then rises sharply to zero, it's hard for us to go that time period without at least seeing some snow (although it could be a dusting - 1"). I don't get the big deal about the pattern after that, PNA looks like it might go positive, but I've said before that, that should happen if/as the NAO goes +.

It seems like the +AMO is peaking still. The CPC last updated their timeseries in Jan 2023. From 1 year ago: September 2022 AMO was +0.662, the highest on record for September since 1948 (2nd was +0.435) October 2022 AMO was +0.483, the highest on record for October since 1948 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.data Jan ends the data. Then we had this in 2023: https://ibb.co/4djpgtR I would say it's near peaking, or 2022-23 was the peak. That gives it at least 10 more years imo of +AMO cycle. (Sept '22 +0.662 was the highest in that whole timeseries, with no other month-years exceeding +0.505, although if you count negatives, the 2nd highest is -0.536.)

Can you believe Vegas has SF 2x more likely to win the Super Bowl than the Ravens? https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl?tab=super-bowl (It was +380 earlier. I guess they like when Lamar doesn't get hurt) Still.. Ravens have a better record. We have 5 straight wins over teams 3+ games over .500 by 14+ points! (NFL record). We are 16-0 prior to this game with 2:00 left in the 4th quarter. We have a better record than SF, and we won there on the road by 2 TD's! Crazy. Lamar is 41-10 as a starter. Ravens had 1/21 odds preseason, and SF was about 1/5, so maybe this is just a hangover from that?

NYC hit 60 in December with an AO near -3 too. I think it's oppositely correlating with the Pacific right now. We'll see

The -NAO is rushing out in a hurry. That's going to give it 10 days! The December one was 10 days too. If you look back over the last several Winters they have not had much staying power. Since we have an ongoing Stratosphere warming through mid-month, it's especially not happening because these usually correlate with 500mb ridging +time. The GEFS wants to quickly turn the NAO positive post 1-20. I'm honestly willing to take a chance, I feel the Pacific could be more favorable if we have +nao conditions develop. Before then, Pacific ridge is still kind of south to favor a snowstorm, then the NAO lifts out, although when it's rapidly rising to Neutral (Jan 16-17) we are more likely to see snow.

We have been having a minor Stratosphere warming for the last 12 days. https://ibb.co/2YgZXJm

I love snow, snow on the ground, drifts, wind.

I'm glad I was in Florida for Jan '16. I was sitting there going muahaha

KU patterns have a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, or the NE N. Pacific (and not '91-20 averages either), stronger.

I think it's because it's extended south to Gulf of Alaska or Aleutian island ridging too. -EPO in January by itself is a highly correlated cold pattern: https://ibb.co/tc1329x https://ibb.co/ZHHbxNm -NAO's are usually drier. They have a 0.45 correlation to less precip all else neutral, that's why it's special that the models are showing such a juicy storm at the peak of -NAO. Hopefully the Pacific can get worked out, so that we don't waste it.

I found there was a net positive 0.31 correlation(/1) between -EPO and snowfall. That factors in colder temperatures and more precipitation. Actually, of the 4 indexes (NAO, AO, PNA, EPO), EPO has the highest net-snowfall correlation for our area. I think what counts in that is a bunch of 4-8" or 6-12" type storms, which we have seen so few of lately. If we are losing a -EPO, and there is still a High pressure over the Aleutians/south of Alaska, I don't like our chances for a snowstorm, despite how negative the NAO is (we talked about this yesterday, huge +SE ridge heights in -NAO's since 18-19, it hasn't been able to suppress the Pacific pattern for whatever reason). I mentioned earlier in this thread a 1std -PNA is overwhelming a 3std -NAO lately, I don't see why that should stop unless El Nino takes over and changes the Pacific pattern completely (which isn't really likely at this range). Someone mentioned that this is the lowest mid-Winter -NAO since 2010 or 2011.. if true, I have found that it's really hard for us to exit a strong -NAO phase without some kind of snow event. This makes perhaps the 16-17 threat more interesting, although it's not the stronger wave right now on the models.

Changed over the sleet/rain in Fallston, MD pretty soon. Barely got a dusting.

Yeah, ever since the AMO changed in 1995, we have had 15 La Nina's, and 9 El Nino's, but even the Neutral's/some El Nino's are showing La Nina-forcing coming from the equator. https://ibb.co/2csFL89 https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn I found yesterday that if you expand the dataset, the AMO cycles seem to correlate slightly to PNA/RNA, especially in the Winter time. +AMO does appear to have a correlation to SE ridge, and -AMO SE trough: Decadal AMO https://ibb.co/QJbBxt8 1st +AMO (1926 to 1965) https://ibb.co/HPj0Hqq 2nd +AMO (1996 to 2023) https://ibb.co/xsgJp81 1st -AMO (1900 to 1925) https://ibb.co/4dNrvht 2nd -AMO (1966 to 1995) https://ibb.co/PGbGTBx I am weary of calling the cycle PDO, because there are equal heights in the S. Hemisphere beneath Nino 3.4 (the strongest known impactful region) of the same magnitude as N. Hemisphere. It seems to be just a La Nina-base state (RNA correlation). Even Neutral ENSO since 1998 has looked more like a La Nina-forcing https://ibb.co/g7ffp52

Look at how we just lost that -EPO. Maybe this is what raindancewx was talking about yesterday.

Models lost the -EPO-ridging for Jan 13th storm.. neutral heights now over Alaska, and they retrograde the -PNA ridge to -WPO only when we start losing the -NAO. That's what I thought yesterday, they sometimes hold onto a strong storm track, and adjust the upper latitude heights, if the total situation before is more unlikely. We needed that EPO-block from the last few 12z Euro runs. It's all but gone on 06z GEFS.

Beautiful storm I think we can trend colder if we have 2 blocks to the north.. unless models backoff on that

+AMO does appear to have a correlation to SE ridge, and -AMO SE trough Decadal AMO https://ibb.co/QJbBxt8 1st +AMO (1926 to 1965) https://ibb.co/HPj0Hqq 2nd +AMO (1996 to 2023) https://ibb.co/xsgJp81 1st -AMO (1900 to 1925) https://ibb.co/4dNrvht 2nd -AMO (1966 to 1995) https://ibb.co/PGbGTBx Again, since the AMO went + in 1995, we have had 15 La Nina's and 9 El Nino's https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn

There has to be an answer. I've seen so many times that the convenient answers are not usually it

I think it is eventually. The sun has cooled down since 1998. Maybe that is part of the reason the constant is equilateral La Nina pattern? https://ibb.co/MVkW8Wz

Right.. you would think that the snowy '60s -PNA composite would work now, but we are pumping a much greater relative SE ridge for whatever reason. I don't think it's necessarily global warming, because they first theorized that +PDO would be impacted, and every part of N. America would be effected except the SE, US. The mid-latitude cell and the Hadley cell meeting is a weather phenomenon, not some broadbased warming. South wind is making it up into NYC more frequently, I think we need a N. Pacific trough (especially in January) to cool it down. It might just be that the historical composites are not taking fully into the effect the power of a PNA pattern (more effected waves downstream than what they show). It also hit me that a lot of the 1700s/1800s climate records are pretty close to now, honestly, you would think they wouldn't have had snowless Winters for 5 straight years in the 1800s and some record highs still standing.

It's actually a La Nina cycle https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn SSTs warm/cool after the fact. Your composite shows barely positive anomalies in the Pacific. We are rocking a pretty good high pressure for the next 2 weeks. I think it should change after the 20th, because that's the ENSO state but we'll see. My roll forward composite (Jan 5-13 N. Pacific ridge) is nailing it right now so is the Dec +EPO roll forward. -PNA's are hooking up with SE ridge more than normal right now (relative conditions like -NAO are not stopping it). My only explanation is that in the mature/later part of a cycle it has stronger downstream effects.