Stormchaserchuck1

Amazing how we had 1030s mb Highs on the US/Canada border yesterday, now today there is a sub-1000mb low in Wisconsin

We had a big time +NAO in '13-15. The NAO is really underestimated for its precip correlation. A really good Pacific, like we had in '13-15 and a super +NAO will no doubt lead to a pattern that is giving us snow every 3-4 days. Here's the Winter NAO precip correlation (default is positive) This is why the Dec 7 storm has a chance, it's not a suppressed pattern.

The Broncos currently make it at 7-5, and the runner ups are the Dolphins and Colts at 5-7. There are 3 wild card teams making it. So if the Dolphins or Colts win out (lol), they are still only 10-7. Broncos could finish 2-3 and still probably make it at 9-8. Yeah.. I was hoping they would pick up Daniel Jones. Lamar getting injured is season over. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't play completely serious (Lamar running for 1st downs) through the remaining games.

We'll see, I'm 90% sure that in that Hemispheric H5 pattern it's a rainstorm. Dec 7th is probably our chance in this cold pattern.

Upper latitude indexes dominate at that time range.. plus it's early Dec, we don't need a trough, we need blue.

Still thinking the pattern is too warm for the Dec 11th storm

The new playoff bracket in the NFL also makes a large part of the later half of the season's games irrelevant. Only the #1 seed gets a bye, and to make the playoffs the #8 seed right now is 5-7, so the Ravens can finish the year almost losing all of their games and still make the playoffs. But they can also win out and still have to play the 1st round with home field advantage being the only difference, besides the team played which really isn't a major difference. I would rather sit Lamar through these last 5 games, and have him healthy for the playoffs. Still have to play 1st round regardless. That's why they weren't playing serious vs the Steelers, they are the kind of team that would aim to get him hurt.

^Would be some snow threats too if that pattern holds, with the NAO positive (+NAO's are wetter). This is the pattern we were talking about in this thread, this Summer.. +NAO and -EPO have been correlating lately for the last 11 years.

With those high pressures it would normally be snowing down to the mountains in northern Georgia. Will be interesting to see if >1030s mb Highs down to the CONUS hold, as we haven't seen that pattern for a long time..

It could work though, as the Pacific is still favorable at that time and a -NAO dries everything out.. That h5 pattern actually favors sleet/fz rain storm In future model runs, if the NAO trends more positive, it could happen with a wetter storm, and a more -NAO could be a little drier. I like those low's undercutting a ridge in Alaska

Nice 1046mb High pressure in SE Canada on Dec 7th on the 18z GFS, for that storm threat. I'm actually surprised that surface temps aren't colder with such a strong High pressure to the north.. probably because the NAO is positive.

Just delayed a little bit Current modeling is trending toward a -PNA for mid-December.

Maybe you just shouldn't post on a science forum. I'm thankful for such an angelic presence on this Earth that people can be so stupid.

Long range GEFS has backed off a bit on the shift to warm it was showing a few days ago. Other models didn't agree, and the majority held, although the 2nd week of December is nowhere near as cold of a pattern as the next 7 days. I thought since natural gas was reacting, it could hold some weight, but that 18z GEFS run from 2 days ago is a warm anomaly right now. Poster - Blizzard of '93 pointed this out at the time. I still don't know that when storms get more organized, precip falling wouldn't be rain though, as we are near average temps in the long range on most current modeling.

It's not going to be below normal with that kind of H5. NAO is positive, and it's close in the Pacific to a -PNA.

18z GEFS really shifted away from last nights modeling of -EPO/+PNA in the medium-long range. Now it shows a Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian High pressure. Although the pattern may be getting wetter after Day 10, it may just be rain.

This time it was way ahead of models! 12z and earlier runs today had a solid +PNA pattern in the long range, now there is a drastic shift at 18z to almost -PNA in the medium/long range! https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html This is with a +NAO. If that pattern holds in future runs, with a Gulf of Alaska or Aleutian High and +NAO, it's not going to be that cold in the East after Day 10. Europe also goes warmer with +NAO, which has been a new trend of late.

0z GEFS has a big uptick in precip after Day 10, which is great if the Pacific +PNA/-EPO pattern holds. We've seen so much +epo/-pna lately though, that that H5 pattern holding is the real key.

One thing to note is that the NAO will be going positive in about 7 days. All the cold is Pacific-driven. +NAO's in its pure form have as much of a +300% precip difference than -NAO's.. so models may not dry up getting closer if we keep this -epo/+nao pattern. +PNA's are dry though. -epo/+pna/+nao patterns produce 2-6" events, but Balt/DC only average 2-3" in Dec so keep that in mind.

The long term spread with Crude Oil and Gasoline still has Natural Gas very low (spreading with these Energy's adjusts for inflation, and gives more data, going back before 1998).. It's in the top 10% lowest right now in this spread trade, even with a $3.5 price. For a -NAO Winter, we pretty much want Natural Gas to be at least $5-6. It is volatile, but if it gets stuck here I would still expect a warm Winter. Still, it's cool to see the adjustments with long term modeling. Like I was saying last night, it's kind of surprising that long range models have remained cold, as that has not been the trend of the last 8 years.

0z GFS holds +PNA pattern through Day 16, Dec 10. This is backing away from the transition I thought it would be showing now in the long range a few days ago. Pretty much, for the last 8 years after 15 days of a cold pattern we are about 0/20 in holding that pattern, but for now it looks to be holding.

I'm probably 0.2-0.5 degrees too warm, but some flakes are trying to mix back in here.

The long range is not as cold, with a strong -PNA/+NAO trying to develop by Day 16. The model fluctuates a lot, but what the gfs ens are trying to do at hr384 could be 60s in the East a few days later.

2013 is about the only cold analog we have going lately, so I was just making a reference how the strong -PDO that year got weathered by a transition to -WPO in Sept through December. We had a warm Fall pattern this year and the PDO is still super negative, so that may hold weight going further into the Winter, but I do like this Pacific pattern for the next 15 days.

I really like how the snowstorm threat ~Dec 1 is looking on current modeling.. we actually have a +PDO H5 look in the Pacific. -NAO looks like it could hang around longer, making the first few days of Dec the "coming out of strong -NAO storm/threat".