arlwx12

Please NO MORE I**!!! Its cousin snowcrete is (still) bad enough. Spots that used to be grass are starting to reappear, though. (wish those piles would finish disappearing...)

From the latest LWX AFD... KEY MESSAGE 2... Colder this weekend with potential for coastal storm, with colder temperatures persisting into early next week. Pattern supportive of leader-follow system this weekend with leader coming Friday and follower Sunday. Upper-level trends over the past few synoptic runs in deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended slightly more favorable for a Sunday system to materialize. More blocking in the Atlantic with a ridge going up offshore has trended to more amplification and models hinting at a storm (potentially bigger). However, just as many ensembles show a weaker system with ridging and suppressed storm out to sea. Moisture does appear to be plentiful; the main uncertainty is how much cold air there will be to work with. Would need a stronger system to get impactful snow outside terrain in order to get more cold air brought into system. Even if a storm does develop, may not be all snow outside mountains with rain mixing in. Overall H5 pattern does support upslope snow behind the departing trough. To show the uncertainty, the EPS 50th percentile is currently a coating to an inch for most (several inches in the Alleghenies), while the 90th percentile is a solid 10-15". If the storm does come to fruition, it could be rather impactful as seen in WPC WSSI-P probs. Could also be a swing and a miss; time will tell. Regardless of this precipitation uncertainty, model guidance is in general agreement for a period of colder temperatures following this system, and the start of next week could trend significantly colder with highs in the 20s for most of the region.

Just about all the DC-area schools announced closings tomorrow. ((Maybe realizing that it kids stand on ice they can't break ice, nor homebound either?))

Just about all the DC-area public schools have announced they will close Tuesday, except DC itself and St. Mary's haven't declared yet.

looked out my window in Arlington VA and saw a millimeter or two of ice on top of tree twigs.

Outside my window in Arlington VA, ice pellets are starting to stick to the topside of branches. This may suggest they were partially melted, and refroze on contact. Something is STILL falling, and I think it all got to be a bit much for those trying to clear the path from their front door for the first time today. Visibility is better, but still not great. I just checked the NWS website that is reporting 1.25 mile visibility at DCA.

About the only "DC-area" public schools NOT on WJLA's closure list for tomorrow right now are Calvert, St. Mary's, Manassas Park and Spotsylvania. ((The list even included Berkeley and Morgan closures thru Tuesday.))

Visibility in Arlington back under a half-mile. Some very tiny precipitation is falling. Maybe an inch of sleet stuck to cleared sidewalks??

Visibility back to about 1/4 mile in Arlington VA. Looks like sleet (bouncing off tree twigs).

More sleet in Arlington VA. The sidewalk where the first neighbor shoveled out is coated. Visibility back down to 1/2 mile.

A kid (parent in tow) just sledded down part of my Hill of Doom. A couple more neighbors started to clear paths from their front doors.

One of my neighbors in Arlington VA came out immediately after the changeover and started shoveling. Some snow DID get scraped off my Hill of Doom, BUT with the sleet, and freezing rain potential, the street might get up to its old tricks again.

Eyeballs estimated about 4-4.5 inches in Arlington VA before the sleet? arrived a bit before 8 am. Didn't see-hear any pingers, though- maybe the teeny specks are rimed?

Been awake since 2 am (thank you tea). Fox weather was doing special broadcasting at 4 am. DC TV channels 4, 5 and 9 kicked in at 6 am with coverage, including their closures lists. Channel 4 estimated another 6 inches for the DC metro, while channel 5 thought there would be 3-5 inches added. Almost time to see what channel 7 will say.

Eyeballing out my window in Arlington, looks like 2 1/2 inches on fencetops. Just MAYBE my Hill of Doom has been plowed, but hard to tell. Visibility down to 1/2 mile, or maybe a bit less.

And the 815 ice forecast called for 0.16" in DC.

LWX's 816 am forecast now calls for 8 inches expected in Washington.

OPM has gone to Monday maximum telework in the DC area. Those who were scheduled to work in the DC area but are not teleworkers get safety leave. More details: Current Status

I discovered WJLA has an online listing of "DC-area" closings and delays: Closings

In the DC area, the first local TV newscast on Saturday will be Channel 4 WRC at 6 am. Channel 7 WJLA will start its local news show at 8 am, and may show closings again.

Home | Fairfax County Public Schools | Fairfax County, Virginia | Fairfax County Public Schools They say a decision will be made on Sunday about Monday school and activities.

Channel 9 WUSA tried to label this storm "Sleetzilla".

Channel 7 WJLA in the DC metro is showing already church and school closures, including DC public schools and all the way out in Culpeper County. There were a couple of "going virtual" announcements as well.

My big questions for MY street are: Will they pretreat it? (no sign so far) Will they plow during the storm? When will they try to make a car path? If the answers to questions 1 and 2 are no, I expect to be entertained by MY Hill of Doom as people Think that they can drive up it. (In that case, if they don't have four wheel drive, people should stay away or stay home.) If there's a decent amount of snow, maybe some kids will try sledding down the steep parts. Or maybe people will think it's too cold for that.

Room also in LWX's forecast for DCA: Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Sunday Snow, freezing rain, and sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 10pm, then snow and freezing rain between 10pm and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible.