RU848789

Having some fun making a snow angel. The closest my wife has come to going outside was taking this pic from the upstairs bedroom, lol.

As of 3 pm, we got another 1/4" of sleet (1" so far, on top of our 8.3" of snow), so we're up to 9.3" of sleet/snow. Temp up to 17F now and pretty windy.We have another 0.7-0.8" of QPF (precip) to go as per the latest HRRR, that's 2-2.5" of sleet to go if all sleet (see the meso discussion below, which implies mostly/all sleet), but it also shows 0.1-0.2" QPF as freezing rain along 95 after 7 pm (assume that means sleet NW of 95 and rain SE of 95 during that time). Really don't want ZR, but since we might, I'm going to leave some sleet on my driveway/sidewalk to absorb any possible ZR rather than having an ice rink.

So at 1 pm I cleared the board (as one is supposed to do after a precip change) and as of 2 pm we got another 3/4" of mixed snow/sleet, although the last 20 minutes it's been pure sleet, so our total snow/sleet total is 9.0". Newark just reported 9" and 7-10" are common all over CNJ/NNJ (my friend in Colts Neck got 9" of snow before the change). Even if we only get sleet from here on, the counties south of 78 in EPA/CNJ and then SW along 95 in SEPA/SNJ are still supposed to get heavy precip for a few more hours, so getting to my 10.1" prediction seems almost like a sure thing, give the very recent NWS update to the warning, linked below, which says we could get up to 4" more sleet/snow, plus 0.2" freezing rain on top (but that's not a given at all). The northern counties N of 78 are expected to get 2-8" more snow/sleet - that range is so wide because some will get all snow (likely the Poconos/Sussex) and some will have sleet mixing. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter storm warning

As of 12 pm, we had 7.0" of snow and it was snowing very heavily at 14F. I then shoveled for the next hour and around 12:40 or so, some sleet mixed in, but it wasn't "classic" spherical pellets, it looked more like small rods that might've actually been poorly formed flakes - weird stuff. Anyway, finished my 2nd shoveling (denser) around 1 pm and we now have about 8.3", but it's getting harder to tell as the winds have picked up considerably, blowing/drifting the snow, so I had to average a bunch of measurements (luckily there's old crusty snow underneath, so not measuring on the board isn't an issue like it is on grass). Made a nice snow angel. Definitely a mix of snow and sleet and it keeps oscillating on which one dominates. And if you want to see downtown Metuchen, News12 is doing a remote from there.

As of 12 pm, we had 7.0" of snow and it was snowing very heavily at 14F. I then shoveled for the next hour and around 12:40 or so, some sleet mixed in, but it wasn't "classic" spherical pellets, it looked more like small rods that might've actually been poorly formed flakes - weird stuff. Anyway, finished my 2nd shoveling (denser) around 1 pm and we now have about 8.3", but it's getting harder to tell as the winds have picked up considerably, blowing/drifting the snow, so I had to average a bunch of measurements (luckily there's old crusty snow underneath, so not measuring on the board isn't an issue like it is on grass). Made a nice snow angel. Definitely a mix of snow and sleet and it keeps oscillating on which one dominates. And if you want to see downtown Metuchen, News12 is doing a remote from there.

As of 11 am, still snowing heavily and up to 6.0" of snow otg, for a rate of 1.6"/hr the last 30 minutes - wow! 13F and just pouring snow. Sleet line looks to be in Wilmington - latest HRRR has us in snow until about 3 pm and if that verifies, we'd get another 6" or so before the sleet. We'll see, but certainly seems like 9-10" is a lock before the change and then maybe 1-2" sleet (but likely mixed with some snow, so maybe higher ratios than 3:1 for pure sleet). Also, I got my snow to liquid ratio for the snow that fell through about 9:00 am when we had about 3.6" of snow - it was 14:1. I thought it would be at least 15:1, so off on that guess a little bit, probably because the flakes the first few hours were not large dendrites, so even though they were smaller dendrites and very dry, they packed in more than expected. Did this by taking a 6" x 6" x 3.6" cube of snow and melting it and doing the volume ratio.

As of 10:30 am, snowing legitimately heavily (1/4 mile visibility) with a bit larger dendrites and we now have 5.2" otg (1.2" last hour) at 13F (10F dewpoint). Just went for a Jeb Walk and took a few pics - gorgeous out there. Also, I got my snow to liquid ratio for the snow that fell through about 9:00 am when we had about 3.6" of snow - it was 14:1. I thought it would be at least 15:1, so off on that guess a little bit, probably because the flakes the first few hours were not large dendrites, so even though they were smaller dendrites and very dry, they packed in more than expected. Did this by taking a 6" x 6" x 3.6" cube of snow and melting it and doing the volume ratio.

As of 10:30 am, snowing legitimately heavily (1/4 mile visibility) with a bit larger dendrites and we now have 5.2" otg (1.2" last hour) at 13F (10F dewpoint). Just went for a Jeb Walk and took a few pics - gorgeous out there.

Here's a PSA for snowfall measurement: clear the board after the change to sleet and sum the snow and sleet measurements together; otherwise you'll likely get some compaction. This is from a great article on snow measurement in The Conversation based on NWS guidelines. Or maybe we'll get lucky and get no sleet, lol. More complicated cases of measurement So, let’s consider three common scenarios. Here in the eastern U.S., we often have to deal with snow that changes to rain during the course of a storm. Imagine 6.0 inches (15 cm) of snow falls, then an inch (2.5 cm) of sleet which compacts the snow to a 4-inch (10-cm) depth. Then, on top of that falls an inch of freezing rain which further compacts the snow to 2.6-inch (6.6-cm) depth by the end of the observation period. What should be listed as the daily snowfall? The snow depth? In this situation, when the snow transitions to sleet, the snow board should be cleared and the maximum depth of snow recorded – 6 inches (15 cm) in this case. Do the same with the sleet and this will add an inch (2.5 cm) to the snowfall – technically, “solid precipitation” – total. Freezing rain is never added to the daily snowfall total because it is in liquid form when it reaches the ground. Thus, the daily snowfall is 7.0 inches (measured to the nearest tenth of an inch) (17.8 cm), while the snow depth at observation is rounded up from 2.6 inches (6.6 cm) to 3 inches (7.6 cm). https://theconversation.com/how-is-snowfall-measured-a-meteorologist-explains-how-volunteers-tally-up-winter-storms-175628

Here's a PSA for snowfall measurement: clear the board after the change to sleet and sum the snow and sleet measurements together; otherwise you'll likely get some compaction. This is from a great article on snow measurement in The Conversation based on NWS guidelines. Or maybe we'll get lucky and get no sleet, lol. More complicated cases of measurement So, let’s consider three common scenarios. Here in the eastern U.S., we often have to deal with snow that changes to rain during the course of a storm. Imagine 6.0 inches (15 cm) of snow falls, then an inch (2.5 cm) of sleet which compacts the snow to a 4-inch (10-cm) depth. Then, on top of that falls an inch of freezing rain which further compacts the snow to 2.6-inch (6.6-cm) depth by the end of the observation period. What should be listed as the daily snowfall? The snow depth? In this situation, when the snow transitions to sleet, the snow board should be cleared and the maximum depth of snow recorded – 6 inches (15 cm) in this case. Do the same with the sleet and this will add an inch (2.5 cm) to the snowfall – technically, “solid precipitation” – total. Freezing rain is never added to the daily snowfall total because it is in liquid form when it reaches the ground. Thus, the daily snowfall is 7.0 inches (measured to the nearest tenth of an inch) (17.8 cm), while the snow depth at observation is rounded up from 2.6 inches (6.6 cm) to 3 inches (7.6 cm). https://theconversation.com/how-is-snowfall-measured-a-meteorologist-explains-how-volunteers-tally-up-winter-storms-175628

Yeah, looks like it's almost in Cape May

As of 8:30 am snowing moderately and we have 3.1" otg (1.1" last hour) and it's 11F.

NWS maps hard to follow these days. This is a weird range map at odds with the colors, plus it starts at 7 am, so it's not the event map, which is below, starting at 4 am, so I don't think they cut amounts. Wish they'd only issue event maps - users can look and compare to what they have so far.

As of 8:00 am 2.6" otg at 11F, so 0.6" the last 30 min - can't imagine not making it to at least 8" with at least 5 hours of >1"/hr rates before any changeover (and hopefully the changeover is after that and rates are more than 1" per hour until then). Started around 5 am.

As of 8:00 am 2.6" otg at 11F, so 0.6" the last 30 min - can't imagine not making it to at least 8" with at least 5 hours of >1"/hr rates before any changeover (and hopefully the changeover is after that and rates are more than 1" per hour until then).

As of 7:30 am snow intensity and flake size have increased and we have 2.0" otg at 11F, so 1.25" last hour. This stuff has to be 15-20:1 ratio snow, it's so light and fluffy.

Ok boyz and grrrrrllls - as of 6:30 am we have 3/4" of the most exquisite pixie dust snow imaginable otg at 11 frikkin' degrees F! Let's get a foot or more! Woke up for a minute at about 4:50 am and snow had just started then.

But you're clearly not going on the latest models, which is the annoying point . Upton didn't lower anything and Mt. Holly just raised snowfall forecasts by a couple of inches across the board in their warnings as per my other post (they had cut too much).

You're simply trolling. Look at my post on the model stats for New Brunswick, which should get a little less snow/more sleet than NYC. The lowest of 8 models at 0Z was 5.6" and the average was around 9" with 1 to maybe 2" of sleet on top and a glaze of ice. For NB.

Just for giggles and the people I share weather info with on a Rutgers sports board, I put together the data set below for New Brunswick, as most posters there are alums and/or live reasonably close by, so NB can be a decent surrogate for much of CNJ and for 95 from Trenton to NYC. Anyway it's total QPF, snow QPF from the 10:1 maps and ZR QPF and sleet QPF, from subtracting the snow/ZR from the QPF (and sleet depth at 3:1). I'll be curious to see which model at 0Z tonight did best, since I'm just 5 miles NE of NB. Thinking my 10.4" snow/sleet prediction is decent (NWS was 11.9" last night when I made my guesstimate and is now 10.1") and I still think (have for a couple of days) 8-12" for CNJ/EPA between 78 and 276/195, as well as the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC is a good call. Have a great storm all. I might paste all the snowfall maps too if I get motivated more. HRRR: 1.5" QPF - 11.6" of snow (1.16" QPF) - 0.12" ZR = 0.22" QPF as sleet or 0.66" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) NAM: 1.4" QPF - 5.6" of snow (0.56" QPF) - 0.02" ZR = 0.82" QPF as sleet or 2.46" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) ICON: 1.5" QPF - 6.3" of snow (0.63" QPF) - 0.00" ZR = 0.87" QPF as sleet or 2.61" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) RRFSA (new NAM): 1.3" QPF - 12.4" of snow (1.24" QPF) - 0.06" ZR = 0.0" QPF as sleet or 0.0" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) GDPS (CMC): 1.8" QPF - 9.5" of snow (0.95" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.85" QPF as sleet or 2.55" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) UK: 1.1" QPF - 10.2" of snow (1.02" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.08" QPF as sleet or 0.24" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) Euro-AIFS: 1.3" QPF - 12.2" of snow (1.22" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.08" QPF as sleet or 0.24" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) Euro: 1.2" QPF - 7.2" of snow (0.72" QPF) - 0.1" ZR (this was a guess as the Pivotal algo is suspect) = 0.38" QPF as sleet or 1.14" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)

With the 18Z models now out and generally (Euro/AIFS/RGEM/UK/CMC/HRDPS/HRRR) a bit snowier/less sleety than at 6Z and 12Z gnerally showing 8-12" before any sleet at 10:1 (which would be 10-15" at 13:1 ratios) I feel more confidence in an 8-12" snowfall for 95 from Philly to NYC and all of CNJ/EPA N of 276/195 and S of 78 (and more N of there). The two model exceptions were the NAM/GFS, which showed 5-6" (at 10:1) for CNJ (6-8" at 13:1 ratios) and then a lot of sleet (2"). I'll definitely take the Euro/AIFS/RGEM/UK/CMC/HRDPS/HRRR over NAM/GFS every day of the week (with the GFS the worst, going from most snowy to least snowy over the last 24 hours). We'll see soon I guess.

That's incorrect. Mt.Holly is only 5" south of 276/195; 6" north or there and contiguous with Upton...

Thanks, fixed the post...

But I'd take the over at Bryant Park nearby if someone else is measuring, lol.