RU848789

The amount of rain (10-14" reported and probably more has fallen in some places with more to come) is just nuts. SIAP, but the NWS in Tampa just issued a Flash Flood Emergency for most of the Tampa/St. Pete area, which is rarely used - it's what was issued in our area when Ida's remnants unleashed that deadly deluge on CNJ/NNJ/NYC a few years ago. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 926 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ST. PETERSBURG, TAMPA, RIVERVIEW, AND PALMETTO... The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin has extended the * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Hillsborough County in west central Florida... Northern Manatee County in west central Florida... Southeastern Pinellas County in west central Florida... * Until 230 AM EDT. * At 926 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 10 and 14 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for St. Petersburg, Tampa, Riverview, and Palmetto. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Tampa, Clearwater, Largo, Bradenton, Pinellas Park, Temple Terrace, Seminole, Palmetto, Downtown Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Fort Desoto Park, Brandon, St. Petersburg, St. Pete Beach, Anna Maria, Gandy, Macdill Air Force Base, West And East Lealman, Feather Sound and Tampa International Airport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.

So, assuming Milton passes 10-20 miles south of the mouth of Tampa Bay, I would assume this means much less surge in Tampa Bay than the 8-12' still forecast (and maybe reverse surge with winds from the east-ish). Is there a model showing the surge before and after landfall for that scenario (and will there eventually be some surge on the backside, with maybe NW winds?

Well the NHC did back off a bit on surge from Tampa, northward, to 9-13' from the Anclote River to Egmont Key (was 10-15'), but kept the Tampa Bay at 10-15' (not sure why- maybe the angle of approach allows enough of a southerly wind component to push water into the Bay); they also expanded the 10-15' surge forecast south about 15 miles from Englewood to Boca Grande.

11 pm advisory: 160 mph/915 mbar and no real track change from 5 pm. Edit - map up now... The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted cyclone center locations. This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 23.4N 86.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 26.5N 83.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0000Z 28.5N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 11/1200Z 29.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 29.4N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z 30.4N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z 31.5N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

I'm assuming the NHC won't lower the storm surge forecasts for the Tampa area until and unless the forecast confidence in a track at least 10-20 miles south of Tampa Bay is very high; probably not until 12-18 hours before landfall, maybe tomorrow at 11 am. Evacuating "unnecessarily" for a 10-15' storm surge is far less of an issue than dropping the surge forecast now and then having many people not evacuate (or even have some return) and then having the track actually head into TB with 10-15' of surge, causing far more loss of life. Having spent many years doing risk analysis in the chemical industry, one usually doesn't discount a catastrophic risk impact (high severity) until the probability of that risk being realized becomes quite low and we're not there yet. And there are still quite a few 18Z models (GFS, NAM, ICON, RDPS, HWRF, HMON and the HAFs) showing landfall either in Tampa Bay or within 5-10 miles of it, so the probability of a Tampa Bay landfall is still too high to lower the surge forecast, IMO.

And if that convection in those cells makes it on shore in SW FL - and especially if we get some training - the WPC rainfall forecast is going to be way underdone for SW FL...

155 mph at 5 am EDT with forecast track nudged very slightly north vs. 11 pm; Tampa area still under the gun if center of forecast track verifies, but the track cone is a bit wider than the typical error at 48 hrs (~65 miles), so landfall location is obviously still a bit of a guess. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

I generally understand the nuances of numerical modeling and forecasting and spent many years doing emergency response planning (including for weather) for Merck's Rahway, NJ site, so I get not wanting to possibly confuse the public, but that doesn't change the fact that I'd simply like to know what the NHC knows about landfall in their forecasts. Maybe they could use the model they use for their surge inundation product where the reader has to acknowledge the limitations and caveats associated with use of the tool and provide the landfall data, but only after the reader read a disclaimer on how that point is, at best a guess, and should not be used for planning purposes, per se, given the uncertainties of hurricane track/intensity forecasting or something like that. I don't think providing that is going to significantly affect how the public uses the info, but perhaps I'm wrong about that. Anyway, thanks for the perspective.

Thanks, although I would have no idea how to find that if I didn't know it existed, lol. Bookmarked it...

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, one of my pet peeves with the NHC is them not always providing a location/windspeed/pressure of the landfall point for the center of their track. I know they like to highlight that "users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton" but I still think they should share at least the landfall forecast, as people want to know and without that info, people end up doing their own estimations of landfall location and strength, which is worse, IMO. For example, the 11 pm advisory contains the point off the coast in the map below (27.1N 83.3W), but guessing exactly where exactly landfall will be has some uncertainty as one has to look at the track and eyeball it. It's certainly a bit south of the 5 pm track (the little grey dropped pin was the point NHC gave at 5 pm, i.e., 27.9N 82.6W), which is why I would guess Anna Maria Island, due west of Bradenton, which would mean the storm would still kind of go NE into Tampa Bay, but barely; the 11 pm track represents about a 15 mile shift SE from the track at 5pm (by my eyeball and I'd rather not be relying on my eyeballs, lol) and and another 10-20 mile shift might be enough to spare Tampa the worst surge. The NHC "knows" the landfall point - I just wish they'd share it. As an aside, is there some service out there that actually calculates it?

This may be banter, but I saw this AccuWeather graphic which shows Milton as a Cat 2 hurricane before exiting the east coast of FL. As far as I know, the NHC has not said whether Milton will be Cat 2 or Cat 1 as it exits the east coast of FL. They simply show it being a Cat 3 just after landfall and it being a Cat 1 (85 mph) when it's about 85 miles off the coast. One can guesstimate that it could be Cat 2 (>95 mph) as it reaches the east coast, but that's not the official NHC forecast. I've wished for years that the NHC would explicitly provide the windspeed and pressure data for landfall and exit point from a landmass, but they don't (or if they do I've never seen it). Anyone?

Agree with the intent of your post, but for the record Tomer had retweeted that one, but for some reason that part isn't included in the link that I posted, probably because posting Twitter links that actually embed properly is a black box, lol. https://x.com/burgwx

I assume this is pretty official. 897 mbar. https://x.com/WxTca/status/1843424669959176251

Question for folks/mets who know the model data initialization process. The 18Z model runs (at least GFS, NAM and ICON), which I always thought initialized at 18Z (or 2 pm EDT now) with data from the 18Z time point or at least not much earlier than that, all show the t=0 point with Milton at about 970-980 mbar, when Milton had a pressure of 925 mbar at 12:00 pm EDT today...and it was even as low as 945 mbar at 8 am EDT. Am I missing something?

Tied for 6th strongest, but that's quibbling.

180 mph, 905 mbar... BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES

IMO, people on the central Florida Gulf coast (and even inland a ways from there) should be seriously considering evacuating or at least have a plan to evacuate once Milton's track is nailed down better in the next day or two, given that the center of the forecast track brings a 115-120 mph hurricane directly over Tampa on Wednesday late afternoon/early evening (although the track cone goes from the Big Bend to Marco Island, so a Tampa landfall is not a given, but preparing for a pretty credible worst case is not a bad thing to do). If we have a major hurricane hitting Tampa, the impacts are likely to be substantial to catastrophic for hundreds of thousands of people. For people unaware of Tampa's history with hurricanes, Tampa hasn’t seen a direct hit from a major hurricane since 1921 (and only one other time in recorded history in 1848), when the population was tiny, but for those storms the damage was catastrophic from both the winds and the storm surge. Even Helene, which missed Tampa by ~100 miles (at its closest) still caused the worst storm surge (~7 ft) since the 1921 hurricane, which had ~10’ of surge and the 1841 storm, which was likely a tad weaker than Helene, had an estimated 15’ of surge; and even a glancing blow from Helene killed 11 people in Tampa. 10-15 feet or more of surge and Cat 3 winds are almost unimaginable for modern day Tampa Metro, which now has 3.2MM people vs. ~100K in 1921 and a few thousand in 1848. Tampa's hurricane history is detailed in the link below. And if the forecast storm track and intensity verify, Milton would pass near or over Orlando, too, as a Cat 1/2 hurricane. Talk about a horrific track for Florida. https://www.miamiherald.com/.../hur.../article293362924.html

Just heard from my cousin that she and her family in Asheville are ok (we had all obviously been worried) - took them until now to get to a town that had some power and a working cell tower. Crazy situation, as folks here know.

We need a "love" emoji - so happy to hear this!

Congrats on politicizing this tragic situation.

Looks like it's not possible anymore (it used to be). As one poster in that thread said, it looks like MarkyMark and MuskyMusk are still at each other's throats and we all are collateral damage, lol.

Thanks for sharing your insights and observations/videos/pics - fantastic stuff. And thanks, also, for showing decency and humanity when interacting with people whose lives and livelihoods are at risk and sometimes totally destroyed and not treating them like a photo op. Sad that not all chasers take that approach.

Thought I tried that before and it didn't work; have the same issue on FB, but not two message boards I post to. Trying it below and as I'm pasting the two URL versions, I see exactly what you said about the tweet being visible in the draft post. Edit: it worked! Thanks so much - I had googled how to do this and didn't really get a lot of help. However, that approach doesn't work on Facebook, still - any idea how to embed tweets in FB? Thanks. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1839785589241258454?s=46&t=Nn9Cx92_8118fPdhHPdJHw

Landfall... Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1120 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HELENE MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... Based on NWS Doppler radar data, the eye of Helene has made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend region at about 11:10 PM EDT (0310 UTC) just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River. This is about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry, Florida. Based on data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, the maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 140 mph (225 km/h) and the minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). SUMMARY OF 1110 PM EDT...0310 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 83.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

29.9N 83.9W is just a few miles SW of the Big Bend Wildlife Mgmt area, which is SW of Perry...