RU848789
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
RU848789 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
And Mt. Holly is much more optimistic than this morning, when they were only calling for a chance of snow well NW of 95; here's their latest...I like the part in bold... LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled weather on tap for the start of the new work week as a developing storm system impacts the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic. However, there are numerous inconsistencies among the models that leads to a low confidence forecast. A deep upper trough over the West Coast ejects into the southern Plains, and the base of the trough pinches off into a closed upper low over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states Sunday night. Surface low pressure develops out ahead of it and moves towards the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This is where the models go awry. The 12Z/08 ECMWF has the low passing through southern New Jersey and Delmarva Monday night, and then the low intensifies off the New Jersey coast as the H5 trough follows behind it Tuesday morning. This system then departs Tuesday afternoon. In terms of sensible weather, the predominant ptype will be rain on Monday, changing to snow over the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey Monday night and Tuesday as colder air filters into the region behind the departing low. A plowable snow is possible for those areas, and possibly even down to the Fall Line. The surface low is faster in the 12Z/08 CMC, with rain moving into the region earlier on Monday, and has the low over eastern Long Island by Tuesday morning. The storm is then gone Tuesday afternoon before the cold air filters into the region. This results in minimal snow accumulation. The outlier, though it has been a consistent outlier, is the 12Z/08 GFS. The storm is much slower, with the low still over North Carolina and Virginia Tuesday morning, and then passes through Delmarva during the day Tuesday before departing Tuesday night. With high pressure building in from the north, cold air advection will be underway, and temperatures drop to below freezing across much of the region. This results in at least a plowable snow across much of southern New Jersey and into Delmarva. The NBM snow probabilities have a less than 10 percent chance for 4 inches of snow or more in 24 hours ending at 00Z Wednesday for most areas south of the Fall Line, and up to 25 percent chance for 4 inches of snow or more in the 24 hours ending at 00Z Wednesday for the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. Due to the low confidence in the forecast, opted to follow the NBM guidance closely. This results in likely PoPs for Monday afternoon and Monday night, and chance PoPs for Tuesday morning. Opted to keep slight chance PoPs continuing into Tuesday afternoon, mainly due to the GFS being slower. -
Walt - the NBM, which I know you and the NWS favor, is finally showing at least a minor snowfall for NYC Metro (1-3"); granted it's hard to know how much of this would truly accumulate, but if we see anything like the rates the GFS is showing, it won't matter much, whereas if we only get light to moderate rates during the day, it's white rain. Too early to know those details.
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Zoomed in, just for our forum, because snow, lol. Even though there isn't much model support from the other models for this. I'd be happy with 6" of snow over the next 15 days given how little snow we've had, so I guess we have to wait until we some other models come on board for something like this. It is pretty though.
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Could the GFS and CMC be any more different? And yes, 10:1 is likely on the high end but at >1" per hour snowfall rates, melting should be minimal and snow growth should be excellent, so Kuchera probably underdoes ratios. Of course, if no snow falls like on the CMC ratios probably aren't that important, lol.
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Remember, a big chunk of TT's "snow" is actually sleet being counted as 10:1 snow, as you can see from the Pivotal map for the same timeframe, where they only report snowfall, which is much less than for TT (sleet is omitted, which is its own separate problem, as that doesn't paint the whole frozen precip picture and the sleet mass is the same as the snow mass and almost as impactful).
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Yep, although unfortunately, unlike the snowier solutions a few runs ago, this one has all of the snow for NYC Metro/95 falling from 10 to 4 pm on 2/13, meaning with surface temps around 34-35F at midday, accumulations will be very difficult unless we see fairly heavy intensity. I'd still way rather see white rain than real rain, though.
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Walt - think you might have accidentally replied to my post on chemical incidents, which was spurred by your excellent post on NTSB incidents. Also, tried to send you an IM, but the site says you can't receive IMs - was wondering if that's just something you had set up or not activated. Nothing earth shattering - just a question or two on the weather.
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Today's rainstorms for 95% of this subforum from the 12Z GFS and CMC are what I was afraid of and reasons why not to start a thread yet. Nobody is saying there's no chance of snow for NYC metro/95/coast, but we'd need to see a lot more consensus snow in multiple model cycles to have any such confidence and we're nowhere near that now.
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Same with OSHA chemical incident investigations/reports (they're similar to the NTSB reports conceptually), which was my field when I was working at Merck, having been the director of the group responsible for chemical process safety testing and evaluations for new processes progressing through R&D and eventually going to manufacturing sites (if a new drug was successful). After action reviews, done well, can be eye opening to pre-incident errors in systems, judgment and analysis, often revealing biases and lack of attention to detail from key actors in these incidents and we used them liberally as teaching tools in trying to ensure that our staffs doing the testing and evaluations weren't subject to bias and/or overlooking key factors. We didn't have any significant incidents during that time, fortunately.
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I wouldn't start a thread either, as we're still pretty far out and even the "snowy" models have significant thermal issues that would likely significantly reduce accumulation, plus we've only really had one model suite (last night) with just about every model showing at least moderate accumulating snow (at 10:1 ratios). I'd want to see at least some consistency for another cycle or two, i.e., maybe after tonight's 0Z runs, which would put us about 5 days before the event is likely to start. Just my opinion and I'd absolutely defer to Walt on this.
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Yes, but not for 24+ hours
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Yeah, I'm 61 and still love the cold and snow and don't imagine that ever changing. I'm retired and am outside for several hours per day at least 5 days a week between disc golf, soccer, and doing little day trips with my wife. Obviously, someday I'll be less mobile, but until then I love getting outdoors.
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That's irrelevant with temps in the mid-30s Monday morning and highs in the mid-40s on Monday and then temps down into the upper 30s before any precip starts Monday night. Yes, ground will be above 32F, but not far above 32F.
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I'm astounded by how much snow/precip falls in such a short period on the 6Z GFS, with 2/3 of the snow for NYC metro falling from 4 to 7 am on 2/13 (night time is great for this marginal run), which is 6" or more for most in that 3-hour period and most of the rest falls in the next 3 hours. If we end up with a storm like this, we're talking knife's edge for any forecast, given surface temps, verbatim, for folks along 95 never go below 34F (so ratios likely are low, although the whole column is below 32F except for very near the surface and at high rates ratios might not be as bad as shown by Kuchera). Anyway, I know discussing thermal details at this point is a bit silly - it's just wild to see what is possible with this event, IMO...
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And just to whet people's appetites for the long range tracking marathon...
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Euro is heavy rain to heavy snow for most. Still 6+ days out, but the Euro/UK/GFS/CMC all show at least moderate snowfall for NYC Metro with less to the S/SW and of course if this continues to look good we'll eventually be worrying about how much rain/mix before the snow and ratios and melting and everything else, but the take home message is we actually have a decent shot at some snow.
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Nice, but still a week away...
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Nice to see a signal for a potential winter storm.
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Thanks, although wouldn't "all other cases" for Feb from 1975 to 2023 be about 1342 (28 days/Feb x 48 Feb's)?
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Fantastic - you're the best! That's roughly a 60-80% enhancement for having those conditions in place. One last question: can you share how many cases there were in total (although I guess that's 10% of 28 days/yr x 48 yrs or 10% of 1344 or 134 days of 2" in total for example, but I can't tell the number of cases for the specific conditions) and for the specific conditions and is this for NYC?
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The details don't really matter here, as those will change hugely in coming days - it's just cool to see a significant threat possibly (we all know this may disappear or fizzle) on the table to kick off the pattern change.
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Climo is only about 10-11" from the 2nd half of Feb onwards, so ~13" more isn't a ridiculous amount if this pattern ends up being as productive as many think it will be - not talking historic amounts, but certainly a few to several inches above climo doesn't seem crazy. We'll see soon, of course...
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Thanks for confirming those were temps in those regimes and that it was a typo on the PNA. Too bad there's not snow data for those regimes, since 95% of the poster on these boards are snow hounds and the $64K question for all of them is, what level of confidence do we have that the coming pattern will actually deliver at least normal snowfall, if not well above average snowfall and maybe even a KU storm. In their backyards. Will be interesting to watch it all unfold...
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Nick never said 15-23" more snow is coming. 15-23" was his winter forecast for NYC Metro (and the 95 corridor from Philly to CT, as per his map) and he's saying there's the potential for another ~15" of snow this winter and since most of that area has seen 2-8" of snow that would bring that area into his 15-23" seasonal forecast. https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyc-2024-mid-winter-forecast
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Don - thanks, although I'm not 100% sure what your table is showing. Is that monthly average temp for both cities under the teleconnection/MJO conditions specified? If so, clearly those conditions lead to significantly colder temps (typically a >2F departure from the overall mean puts one into "colder than normal"). Also, is that supposed to be PNA+, not PNA-? And lastly, any data on snowfall under these conditions relative to normal? I would guess snowier than normal or else people wouldn't get so excited when patterns featuring these conditions develop, as it looks like they will soon. Thanks again. Also, it's amazing what data you're able to find and put together - it's like you have access to a database for all weather data from every city in a way that allows easy data extraction from queries - does that actually exist (and is it available to all)?
