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And this is only 4-5 days out on the GFS, with other models showing snow only further north during this time - and even the GFS ensemble showing that, too (indicating the Op is probably an outlier), but ya never know...

Surprised nobody posted these last night. Yes, it's still a longshot at 8-9 days out, but it's not impossible to have snow in late March and it's nice to see two models showing some snow.

Many people on social media making comments about the past few months being windier than normal, but I haven't been able to find any data to evaluate whether or not that's true (the NWS Now Data pages don't seem to include wind data). Is that something anyone arounf here tracks and if so is there some data to share to illuminate whether it has, actually, been windier than normal for the past few months (maybe for D/J/F)? Thanks!

12Z Euro, GFS, GDPS and AIFS all show interior snowfall in NEPA/NWNJ/SENY and New England on 3/25-26 - and not too far from the 95 corridor. It's at least worth watching, since we know that most late March events never look like much until a day or two before.

I'm just happy there's the potential for a winter storm, but we'll obviously need to see other models to come on board before believing the outlier GFS is correct. And if somehow it were correct, look at that snowfall gradient from over a foot along 95 to just a few inches 20-30 miles SE of 95, due to sleet and some rain (it's not all rain - Pivotal maps don't count sleet). This also isn't 10 days out anymore - precip starts in about 5.5 days.

I love cold weather, but I have a disc golf tournament tomorrow at 10 am at Allaire State Park in Monmouth County. I don't actually mind the cold and even snow for disc golf, but it's going to be windy and I hate the wind.

Just noticed that Pivotal finally has snowfall maps for the AIFS, so I don't have to piece together temp/precip maps as a guess anymore.

Don - I'm guessing you'd be able to find the answer to this question: how many times has NYC had below average D/J/F, but still been below normal in snowfall for that 3-month period? I would imagine that's unusual. TIA.

Final measurement around 10:45 pm was 0.6" (was poker night and we just finished, so I wasn't getting out to measure that often, lol). Brings us to 16.5" this season. Beautiful light fluffy snow - must be 14-15:1 ratios. About to go broom this one away.

0.5" as of 9:10 pm - love that last band - gorgeous out there...hope to make 0.6-0.7"

up to 3/8" with a nice little band over me...

snowing lightly with 1/4" otg - might get to 1/2". Very slick.

Up to 0.1" of snow and that was a very important 0.1" because it brought my seasonal total from 15.9" to 16.0". Every little bit, lol.

We now have a whole light dusting on all surfaces now, lol; plenty of reports of 1/4-1/2" or so in places like Branchburg, Basking Ridge, Bethlehem, Quakertown, Morristown, etc. Supposedly, we'll see occasional bands like the one we just saw through 8-9 pm - really want to get 1/2" if possible, just to pretty things up...

Light flurries here - not enough to accumulate...

Saw this elsewhere, which supposedly shows flakes where snow is actually falling, which is cool - don't have RadarScope Pro, though.

Do we know if the snow on the radar is hitting the ground in NWNJ/Lehigh Valley?

I'll take that bet...we have model consensus on at least 1/2" for NYC Metro with some places getting 1"+ (and those places can't be predicted well for a mesoscale event like this one). Models can be way off days in advance, but I doubt they're all wrong <8 hours from the start of an event, even a minor one.

Even the globals (especially the Euro/CMC) are showing 0.5-1"+ this afternoon/evening N of 276/195. It would be nice...

The NWS has come around to Walt's thinking (which Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 agrees with, too) as their interactive point/click map now shows 0.5-1.0" north of 276/195 in PA/NJ/NY (and 1-2" in the Poconos) vs. 1/4-1/2" south of that line, even though their official map only says <1". Still pretty minor, but as the NWS said, "with cold temps, roads could get slippery especially after sunset this evening." This would apply for areas that get more than 1/2", given temps in the upper 20s. Also, the most recent 12Z mesoscale/short-term models (NAM, HRRR, RAP, RGEM), which, in theory, should do better with a minor mesoscale event like this, are all showing 0.5-1"+ for areas N of 276/195. The NWS map shows 0.5" for my house, but I'll go with a hugely overperforming 0.7", lol. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=PHI Also, for those curious, this was a big storm for NE NC and SE VA and extreme southern MD/DE, as per the map below. The VA Tidewater area got 8-12", the northern OBX got 3-5" as did the Research Triangle and Richmond areas, and extreme southern MD/DE got 4-6", while areas in western VA/NC got a fair amount less than forecast as did northern VA/MD, with DC actually shut out, as was all of NJ, except Cape May which got <1/2". Was really fascinating to see the steep gradient across the southern half of Sussex Co, DE, going from 0 to 5" over a 20 mile stretch from NW to SE.

And the Euro joins the party for our blizzard tomorrow, lol...

0Z NAMs not bad - key message is that there will be some bands - where the 1"+ amounts will be is a crapshoot, of course...

Any snow reports from Cape May? Looks like they've had a few decent spells of snow on the radar...

Party time, sign me up - and it's our monthly poker night and this month it's at my house in Metuchen (we'll hit 40 years next year), so even better!

Latest RAP saves us, lol, although it is interesting to note that the meso models are a bit more bullish for the Philly-NYC area (1/2-1" for most) than the globals (0-1/2" for most. 1/2" would be nice, but so would an overperforming 1", given how this storm has turned out.