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RU848789

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Everything posted by RU848789

  1. RU848789
    Snowing lightly at 29F with an entire dusting otg.
  2. RU848789
    It's interesting to me to compare the Euro/EPS for the last two long range runs. At 0Z, the Euro Op showed significantly more total snowfall at the end of its run than the EPS mean did, while at 12Z the Euro Ops showed significantly less total snowfall at the end of its run than the EPS mean did. This implies that the Euro Op was likely a bit of an outlier in both cases, but this far out I'd rather have the EPS mean showing more snow than the Euro Op vs. vice-versa.
  3. RU848789
    Great stuff, especially the page with graphics for NE US winter snowfall for the last 25 years, as per the one for last year, below. Would love it if there were a site like this for NJ/NY/PA. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/northeast
  4. RU848789
    My guess is nobody would be bummed with 1-2" (I'd be ecstatic as the NWS is predicting <1/2" for me), but <1/2" to just a dusting would be disappointing.
  5. RU848789
    Our last hope, the NAM...
  6. RU848789
    Was just looking at that. Another kick in the nuts for most of us not well N/W, with DC/Balt getting near 6" and nada for Philly-NYC-Boston. Verbatim, of course - good to have something that might turn into something good.
  7. RU848789
    Not a fan at all - not a met, which isn't necessarily disqualifying, but he also clearly doesn't know his stuff...
  8. RU848789
    I know it's 11 days out, so this is not meant as analysis, but to get a raging rainstorm near the end of this pattern would be a kick in the head with a metal boot...good to see a storm though, in the same timeframe as the Euro having a good storm (all snow).
  9. RU848789
    The 12Z models seemed similar to the 6Z models with some having <1" (and near zero for many locations) and some having 1" or so with a few spots to 1.5-2.0", especially SE of 95 towards the coast, so maybe an overall average of 1" just based on models and that's kind of what the 13Z NBM (model blend) is showing, below. However, the NWS-Philly put out a snowfall map around 10 am which, surprisingly, has roughly 1-2" from 276/195 up to 80 (less N of 80) and 2-3" south of 276/196, much like the 07Z NBM. I am kind of puzzled to say the least. It is consistent with their 4 am AFD, but one would've thought they might change their mind after seeing 0Z last night and 6Z this morning, but apparently not.
  10. RU848789
    Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me.
  11. RU848789
    And we're just the guys to do it.
  12. RU848789
    Euro dead! GFS dead! CMC dead! UK dead! ICON dead! JMA dead! That unpronounceable Russian model dead! Niedermeyer dead! But the end of the NAM showed promise and the HRRR at 48 showed good trends aloft, so are we gonna give up? Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No!
  13. RU848789
    If we were 36-48 hours out, I'd be watching TV, lol, but we're still 84 hours out when modest to even significant changes are possible. Not that I'm counting on them, but that's the state of NWP at this time, even with improved models.
  14. RU848789
    NAM actually has heavier precip in our area and just west of here near the end of its run than the 18Z Euro or 0Z GFS do. I know it's the NAM at 78-84 hours, but it's something. Maybe.
  15. RU848789
    Figured most level-headed posters here would see this, which is why I shared the NWS post/graphic earlier today. I actually saw it first on a Rutgers sports board where I post weather info by a guy who posts all kinds of nutty conspiracy crap, so I then went to the NWS-Philly FB page to see if it was real and it was and then I posted that I thought it was irresponsible. The response was mostly derision, although 30 min later someone took the ridiculous graphic down. I simply don't think scientific personnel responsible for public safety should be posting misleading crap - no issue with humor, but figure out a way to do that without compromising the science.
  16. RU848789
    The 40" post was 100% real on the NWS-Philly FB page. I said it was irresponsible on the page and some agreed and others thought I was being silly, but public safety isn't a joking matter IMO (and if they had clearly include smileys or a comment making clear it was a joke I wouldn't have cared, but they didn't). They have since pulled the graphic from the FB page (you can even see that it was edited to remove a graphic), but kept the text there, which was fine. https://www.facebook.com/NWSMountHolly/posts/pfbid0zJeNRScVzhfRH1f6CD46octVXdtw865K7EQpwCF7S3PTLumC4wxag5sC7xpMia3el?comment_id=1113426140241143&reply_comment_id=1250860806202090&notif_id=1736278761590820&notif_t=comment_mention&ref=notif
  17. RU848789
    Dan Zarrow is decent for the NJ area and after the 12Z models came out he has a 20% chance of a bomb (6-24"), a 60% chance of light snow (1-4") and a 20% chance of nada (which is almost exactly what I said earlier). The NWS was also much more bullish on a light to moderate event than they were this morning, as per today's 4 pm discussion. But unless 0Z moves back towards 12Z, my guess is most will, rightly, back down a bit on snowfall forecasts/likelihood for our area based on 18Z and a perhaps similar to 18Z suite at 0Z and we might then be in the same boat we were in for this past event for areas N of 276/195, i.e., hoping for 1-2" of snow at best. Might happen. https://nj1015.com/nj-stays-frozen-and-windy-3-possible-scenarios-for-weekend-storm/
  18. RU848789
    Over the top statement almost 4 days out. Getting a minor to moderate snowfall is certainly still possible - we're still even outside the range of the NAM/RGEM and we've seen major changes from this point to an event many times in the past. At about this same point for the 1/6 storm, i.e., 18Z on Thursday about 90 hours before the start of precip, we were celebrating the moves north of the GFS, Euro and ICON which along with decent snows for the CMC/UK made it look like we could get 2-4/3-5" for CNJ/NNJ/NYC. We all know how that went south fairly quickly with 0Z showing big moves south by the UK/Euro and they really never wavered much from having maybe an inch for our area until the storm, while the other models slowly moved towards them somewhat. The point being that modest to significant changes can still occur and I don't think anyone can predict with high confidence whether those moves will occur this time and if they do, what direction.
  19. RU848789
    Liked this... https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/1876718043654697202 https://x.com/i/status/1876718043654697202
  20. RU848789
    They deleted the graphic from their FB post, because I'm sure someone in the NWS kicked someone's butt over the irresponsibility of posting a graphic showing "0-40" of snow possible."
  21. RU848789
    This is real from the NWS and not a joke. Told them I thought the 40" part in the graphic was irresponsible. The text in the post was fine... "We've been getting a lot of questions about the potential weekend winter storm. To answer those questions, there is about a 50-60% chance of snow. That's all we know. We do NOT know how much snow we'll be getting yet. The storm is still 4 days away, and a lot can change. Could we get significant amounts? Sure, but there's still a chance we end up getting insignificant amounts. Greatest threat is Friday night and Saturday morning. Keep an eye on the forecast in the coming days for more information!" https://www.facebook.com/NWSMountHolly/posts/pfbid0zJeNRScVzhfRH1f6CD46octVXdtw865K7EQpwCF7S3PTLumC4wxag5sC7xpMia3el
  22. RU848789
    Was great to see the 12Z Euro making a major move towards the GFS aloft and a smaller one at the surface, which should give folks more confidence in at least a minor to maybe moderate event. I think the NBM looks like a good estimate at this point (unlike for the last storm 4 days out, where I think the time lag/precip issues were more noticeable).
  23. RU848789
    You need to read my post more closely - I said "at least 1-2/2-4" for the DC-Boston megalopolis or not that far SE of there" with the 12ZGFS/6ZEuro/12ZICON showing that for the megalopolis along 95 and the 12ZCMC showing that about 50-75 miles SE of 95 (i.e., mostly off-shore, but still "not that far SE of there").
  24. RU848789
    Almost every model is showing at least 1-2/2-4" for the DC-Boston megalopolis or not that far SE of there meaning a minor (1-2") to moderate (2-4") event is not the almost pipe dream that a bomb is and most of us would be happy with a few more inches of snow. I'm loving looking out my window right now at 1.2" of snow, which should mostly still be there come Saturday.
  25. RU848789
    12Z ICON looks similar to 6Z giving our area a general 1-3" snowfall on the northern fringe of the snow shield, with more for the mid-Atlantic. Totally different setup, though, with a Miller A vs. the SWFE we had yesterday, so more room for positive/negative changes, IMO. Would gladly take another 1-3" though. The 12Z NAM looked quite similar to the ICON at 84 hours, at least at the surface - and to me all of the models look pretty similar at the surface through 0Z Saturday with the low on the FL Panhandle and then they diverge.
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