78Blizzard

Nice hit Fri for the Cape on the 3k Nam.

I take it no first call tomorrow or Friday...?

I guess we're that desperate...

That's probably the best we can hope for right now.

I thought we were supposed to look at the ensembles and ignore the ops this far out? The melts will be something to behold over the next 4 days, with the slightest tick east bringing a short-lived euphoria with visions of BM positions dancing in peeps heads.

Finally caved...

The GEFS is looking like a carbon copy of 06z at this point.

You know it was a bad sign when some were ecstatic last night over that UK run. It will probably join the rest of the suite at 12z.

It only goes out to 144.

The UK looks nice for the NYC and CT area, but probably a rainstorm for BOS south.

What's interesting in that GEFS run is that at hr132 most members are clustered near the mid Atlantic, while at hr138 they scatter from there all over the place. So much uncertainty.

I think the GEFS is coming west this run.

I agree. Something that doesn't fade away with a 40F day.

The weather wasn't great on the 6th, though, according to reports: On June 6th, the weather was more tolerable, but certainly not ideal. A gusty wind blowing from the west at 15 to 20 knots produced a moderately choppy sea with waves of from 5 to 6 feet in height. This was a heavy sea for the small craft, which had some difficulty in making way. Even the assault area was rough for the shallow-draft vessels, although there the wind did not exceed 15 knots, and the waves averaged 3 feet. Visibility was 8 miles with a cloud ceiling at 10,000 to 12,000 feet. Scattered clouds from 3000 to 7000 feet covered almost half the sky over the channel, becoming denser farther inland. Maritime polar air had moved over the channel behind the cold front as the low of 4 June that was west of England moved eastward; the deep low that was off Labrador on 4 June moved north-northeast to just off the southeast coast of Greenland . This was the key to the clearing weather: if the Labrador low had tracked eastward, foul weather would have prevailed. The midlevel overcast was most serious for air operations. Heavy bombers assigned to hit the coastal fortifications at Omaha Beach had to bomb by instruments through the overcast. With concurrence of General Eisenhower, the Eighth Air Force ordered a delay of several seconds in its release of bombs, in order to insure that they were not dropped among the assault craft. The result was that the 13,000 bombs dropped by 329 B-24 bombers did not hit the enemy beach and coast defenses at all, but were scattered as far as 3 miles inland. The weather also contributed to navigational difficulties. Mist mixed with the smoke and dust raised by the naval bombardment obscured landmarks on the coast. Look at the low overcast in this picture. As an aside, the logistics of amassing thousands of ships and landing craft whatever the weather was quite a feat. Not that this would ever happen again, but you wonder if our military elites could handle this type of operation today?

That's probably about it for your low, maybe another degree or two. Temps are going up through the night.

Based on the GEFS, the op going up C PA is a fantasy for NNE peeps.

I think the GEFS will.

That's not riding up the coast inland based on this.

An average of all global models would be a great track for most of us.

Actually, the mean of the EPS near the BM is where the Ikon and the Navgem have it. So the EPS must be wrong.

I see the junior varsity of the Ikon, Navgem, and JMA are all at or south of the BM for Monday.

Look, we've seen the track record of the GFS at mid-range and it sucks. The GEFS is where you should be looking at this point.

The GFS was so far west of the GEFS mean at 6z.

GGEM is strange at the other extreme. Has a similar track to the GFS but all the action is to its east.

Strange night. CMC been stuck at hr54.