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78Blizzard

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Everything posted by 78Blizzard

  1. 78Blizzard
    You could say the same about the crazy uncle, too. Last night posters were singing its praises, today, it sucks.
  2. 78Blizzard
    We've seen references to the German, Japanese, and Korean models for this threat. Really reaching...
  3. 78Blizzard
    It's ok, just the crazy uncle.
  4. 78Blizzard
    CMC just about over the BM but meh.
  5. 78Blizzard
  6. 78Blizzard
    I would take a 50-50 compromise between the GFS and Euro ops at this point and take my chances on precip type. Cold air will probably be hard to find around here at the surface.
  7. 78Blizzard
    I think you may both be talking about different Saturday storms. If you are talking about the Saturday storm last weekend, yes, the GFS ensembles had shown consistency for 3 days.
  8. 78Blizzard
    And that caution is well warranted given the track record of 7-8 day threats this winter.
  9. 78Blizzard
    Be sure to include your backyard in those precip type issues...
  10. 78Blizzard
    Just opining on what the model showed as others have been doing since this thread started.
  11. 78Blizzard
    Verbatim Sat PM that would be 3-4"/hr rates in Westerly.
  12. 78Blizzard
    Exactly. We've seen the GFS blow day 6 runs all winter, and now they even blew a day 1 run. And I'm not just referring to the clown maps either.
  13. 78Blizzard
    We have often said that we need to nowcast certain systems. IMO this will be an epic nowcast system, especially with the tight gradient. Plenty of bust potential, up or down.
  14. 78Blizzard
    Yet the 18z GEFS has 14" for BOS and 5" here. This stuff is laughable.
  15. 78Blizzard
    About the same here.
  16. 78Blizzard
    Don't understand that, as it has 10" for me and I'm SW of BOS by about 12 miles. The Sat PM stuff is about as much as the initial thump here.
  17. 78Blizzard
    Check again, the 18z had 1.99.
  18. 78Blizzard
    GFS cut back QPF here by almost 1/3 from 18z.
  19. 78Blizzard
    It did, but looks like the end result was about the same for most.
  20. 78Blizzard
    Hrrr not a good sign for the 0z suite.
  21. 78Blizzard
    The problem for the GFS is that it can only be downhill for it after that last run. It won't get any better than that for many. It has been steadfast for 3 days now, so I think changes should be mostly noise this close in. I have railed on it this winter for showing us favorable outcomes at day 6 that disappeared by go time. But if it does it now at day 1-2, then what good is it?
  22. 78Blizzard
    Plenty of bust potential in that BOX map. Just let the NAM's next run trend toward the GFS and they'll be scrambling to update.
  23. 78Blizzard
    Yeah, just about 2" here, with the sleet line barely getting to me and then collapsing into heavy snow.
  24. 78Blizzard
    Basically, they are saying FU to the GFS.
  25. 78Blizzard
    Well, we have a stubborn NAM and a stubborn GFS. At this point I don't see either/both of them compromising. The GFS has been consistent every run for days, so I am inclined to go with it. I see BOX isn't putting up any warnings yet, so they can't be buying the GFS or even much of the other guidance.
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