SnoSki14
-
Posts
16,173 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnoSki14
-
There always seems to be a lull around this time as its a transition point between early & peak activity. Even 2005 had a break in early to mid August. However with a massive MJO wave moving east and shear on the decline there's very likely to be a surge just after the 20th. There's zero evidence of a 2013 repeat. Also just look at the e. Pacific and their current activity, that'll be us in about 10 days or so. Steering currents also favor west tracks vs OTS storms.
-
The tropics will likely flip like a switch. Even now despite unfavorable conditions we're still seeing invests try to spin up. I think we'll get our next storm shortly after the 20th (21-26 most likely). It's possible we get a rogue subtropical or brief MDR storm before then but our first big time storm won't come till late August. We could see simultaneous storms in the 25th through September 15 time frame. A couple of them could be majors. After the 15th there could be another lull but another active period in late September through October is very likely.
-
A lot of those early storms have mostly non-tropical origins which is why they never get really strong. I think the May/June early developments and late June through mid August lull will be a common occurrence going forward. Getting lemons right now in the tropics (MDR region) is good sign that things are becoming more favorable though. We'll probably see the real meat of the season start a couple weeks earlier this year.
-
It's a powder keg setup. Things are gonna pick up in a hurry in a few weeks.
-
If it meets the definition of a storm then it gets a name it's that simple. Agree about the winter storm naming nonsense though.
-
If it meets the criteria then it should get a name. Dolly definitely met the criteria for a TS.
-
May 8-9 mid-spring rain, snow, cold, wind obs
SnoSki14 replied to CT Valley Snowman's topic in New England
That Cranky guy is a total idiot. We had squalls down to central NJ today. -
The 6-10 & 8-14 day forecasts don't look too pretty either. So much for a big recovery. RIP to climate change deniers.
-
Yeah 2012 looked pretty normal too at this point.
-
These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter.
-
My belief is that in due time everyone will transition over simply from market forces alone. Not sure when we'll get to net zero emissions but there's always a new breakthrough on the horizon nuclear fusion being the holy grail of them all. That doesn't mean the transition period won't be rough though. I think a lot of lives will be lost and trillions of dollars from weather related disasters will be commonplace for a few decades before everything stabilizes. I don't think it'll be the end of the world as some proclaim.
-
That's a point a lot of people either ignore or worse. I believe the US/Europe contribute 15% of all emissions & are gradually declining while China/India/Russia do the rest and they're rising. Even if the US/Europe were to go net zero we'd still have a global problem. Unless those countries change, nothing will change.
-
Joe B. continues to be a complete joke. I remember him going on and on how there would be a big global cooling event for the 2010s and 20s. Every year he forecasts a big east coast winter and Northeast hurricanes. Occasionally he ends up right but so does a dead clock.
-
And the Earth is flat too.
-
That statement is idiotic. And literally every scientist on the planet agrees that we are the cause but do enlighten us. And Don please don't even waste your time.
-
Wrong again or should we remove the past couple days from the data set too.
-
Southern spots possibly though models have been trending weaker with any heat potential. Only see low 80s in my forecast.
-
And today was the last of the 90s until next year.
-
Wrong again
-
2012 was essentially an anomalous year due to the great Arctic cyclone. This year maintained the status quo but it'll be more interesting to see what happens next year. The last few years had horrible ice recoveries vs the early 2010s and this year should be no different. A very poor recovery could lead to a new record next year.
-
The good news is that the ice hasn't been able to beat the last record low from 7 years ago. Which could mean an ice free summer Arctic probably won't happen until the end of the 21st century.
-
I stopped giving a rats ass about those people, they're as repugnant as anti-vaxxers or flat-earthers though having said trolls lead gov't is quite terrifying. Still even the most scientifically scholared gov'ts don't mind turning their back on what they know to be true. So at this point it's a big waiting game. Will we innovate ourselves out of GW or will GW shut us down permanently.
-
I didn't think the blocking would go away. This pattern's stuck for the long haul with some shifting every now & then.
-
I don't know, it seems the closer we get the more blocking starts to show up. The current warming, ice melt could even help enhance blocking.
-
These climate agenda arguments are so baffling to me, there's literally hard data from numerous sources/satellites that goes back decades to hundreds of years. But I guess in an age where anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers exist we shouldn't be too surprised. Regardless, the climate will do what science intended whether you choose to remain ignorant or not. I kid you not there were tweets where people tried to dispute climate change by stating it snowed in Alberta last June. But mention record heat in Alaska/Europe happening now and you won't hear a peep.
