SnoSki14

Looks like a real cold March coming up.

Who cares if the EPO is favorable if there's no Atlantic blocking. It just means the cold gets dumped west as the SE ridge amplifies. Also cold month? I see a couple 70+ days ahead and then seasonal to AN afterwards with a couple colder days mixed in. The Atlantic blocking & +PNA shown was just a headfake and transitory. Also I'm not sure what Doorman is smoking. How will that lead to a coastal track exactly? There's no blocking to force the low to the coast. There's a better chance on the 9th. CMC has a little snow with it

The lack of Greenland blocking has been very disappointing. Positive AO/NAO most of winter

The 10-20th period looks interesting. EPO supplying cold air and there's some western ridging. Even a bit of Atlantic blocking too.

It's your own fault for responding

Hopefully not. Cold in mid-late March is cloudy, usually with a chilly rain & low 40s.

It can take several weeks to see the effects. A strongly negative NAO/AO late March & April wouldn't surprise me.

I'm willing to bet we hit 80 in March. There's no blocking and a strong -PNA is likely.

Our severe weather season has been a lot more active lately and it should continue. More flooding and tornado threats

Dramatic much?

What did it show for March?

Luckily temps have mainly hovered around 31-32F to limit icing here though a glaze on colder surfaces is present. A couple degrees colder and it would've been a major problem.

32/20 which is concerning. If temperatures fall to 28-29F there would be significant icing.

GEFS picking up on it. Less -EPO more -AO and it's causing early March to trend colder. A neutral/negative PNA & negative AO is a good cold/snow signal for March.

Surface temps are more likely than not going to end up colder than forecast. Areas away from immediate metro should watch out. Primary low is quite weak, it's going to be a struggle warming the surface.

Yeah seriously. The people further north on the edge should be the most worried.

Surface temperatures will be difficult to warm regardless so more ice possible. I'm hoping we stay on the positive side of freezing but it'll be close. Currently low 30s with dews in the teens.

You want to suppress the SE ridge as much as possible this time of year and models often underestimate the strength of the SE ridge. This would actually be a good look if it verified. Models showing more of a -AO by mid March so winter may not be over just yet.

If you think this temperature swing was impressive just wait till you go from 80s to 30s in April over 3-4 hours

Rgem would make for a very messy Friday commute. That's something to watch as it's usually the more amped/warmer model.

These mild days are nice but it just makes the cold following them feel a lot worse.

All it takes is small ridging to set new records It's effortless

I think this is often exaggerated. Sure there could be chilly days but it's pretty likely we average AN overall. Average temps are rapidly going up by then

This winter has highlighted the importance of -NAO/AO blocking.

Good, models are trending warmer. No icy mess to deal with. HRRR takes low to buffalo