SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Insane Antarctic warmth and nobody will notice because 0-10F is still perceived to be cold. Only when we get ridiculous heat in the states does anyone care. And for people to really notice we'd need a Pac NW style heat dome over the northeast.
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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
SnoSki14 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I'd be willing to bet the blocking doesn't go away that easily and it ends up in the 40s with a cold & dreary easterly wind. -
That's way too early to say. If it showed snow at that range you would rightfully be skeptical. Models are also notoriously too quick to break down blocking. I take any model forecast beyond Day 5 with a grain of salt.
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I'm not sure the pattern is favorable for snows but I continue to be impressed on the late March cold. Some guidance even shows us dropping into the teens with highs near freezing.
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It's a rare legit cold wave in a sea of warmth. Early blooms likely to be affected.
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I'd imagine this would have some effects on the early blooms we're experiencing. Looks like we're a couple weeks ahead of schedule.
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12z EPS continues the strong blocking signal so I think it's legit. Spring blocking has been a common theme. I don't know how cold it'll get but it will def get unsettled for a time
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Ensembles gradually trending stronger with the blocking so things should get a lot more unsettled. Still looks to be on the milder side with some cooler easterly flow days mixed in.
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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
SnoSki14 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Not the most convincing blocking signal. EPS goes warm quickly by 1st week of April. -
EPS supports a cool shot but could easily moderate. Additionally cool shots by late March are not very cool. Still we likely haven't seen our last freeze.
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80s incoming
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You'd think so but we've seen even warmer Marches. If the cool down is mitigated a top 10 warm March is likely.
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That will fuel more severe weather and flooding as well as additional tropical threats. I think the "dry summer" regime is dead for good.
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So a combo of that plus those 100+ readings
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This summer could be a brutal one rivaling the early 2010s imo. Nina sticking around + record SSTs offshore
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Just more multi day 70+ in mid March with severe thunderstorm potential...nothing alarming here.
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Keeping an eye on NAO/AO as they've been positive for months now. I think if they flip it won't be temporary. As long as it doesn't flip before May then spring should stay very warm
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I see upper 70s on Friday. Very easy to beat guidance this time of year with bare trees.
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It's almost 70F again and probably mid-up 70s by Friday. Sure it's nice now but this is very alarming. We're beating the newer records like it's nothing and it's only mid March.
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In 15 days a cool day is basically today's high.
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We're really tempting fate with these active hurricane seasons and strengthening SE ridging.
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Temperatures will be a full month ahead of schedule and there isn't even anomalous ridging. It's scary how fast we've warmed. The consequences won't be good.
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The only worry if we get an early bloom is a late season April cold shot. That's why it's good to wait until we're in the clear.
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Yup that's it for winter. Get ready for allergy season. Growing season will kick into high gear with temperatures mostly in the 60s a full month ahead of schedule. Weather wise it looks extremely boring
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Winds picking up and temps dropping again
