Hurricane Agnes

As of the 2 am update.... Well Jerry blew off his top like a volcano and is now down to a TS & looks like it will take longer before the theoretical reintensification (also including the latest 5 am) -

Jerry's fired up and ready to go!

8 pm update (not much change) -

A Milton the Monster toot toot from the top of the ole noggin!

Finally have some kind of MW depiction of Jerry (the site hadn't updated from yesterday's data) -

5 pm update (Jerry still trying to hold itself together) -

2pm and surprisingly they kept the pressure but it is now barely a hurricane - They have it drop down to a TS and then somehow regenerate back up to a hurricane later.

The 12z GFS has it do that (and I think the HWRF uses that for its modeling). It's got a daunting wall of dust and a ridge to have to punch through to do that though.

Yeah... I was thinking maybe something had a huge paddle in there and tried to wack the dropsonde up to the 200 mb level for giggles but it didn't quite make it so... (yes I am tired and silly ).

Am hoping that is an error (this is dropsonde #6)... But then with this moon-walking backwards, eye-missing pretend hurricane cottonball that is flying apart, anything is possible!

This looks like a firehose of Sahara dust that is just forming a wall of sheer!

Well NOAA2 is still in there and had dropsonde 15 in the same general area and got this -

AF300 recently pegged a 993 so it is flying apart! (sorry but this seemed to apply )

I think Levi summed it up pretty good a couple hours ago (especially since Jerry is back down to CAT 1) - AF300 and NOAA2 are in there doing recon and NOAA3 is in route. The hunt for the eye is like trying to find a needle in a cloud stack!!!

Well what it looks like is that the lower level has the circulation but the upper part is nothing but a big puff of clouds not really contributing much and that it has been "ejecting".

Just based on its appearance, it looked as if the upper and lower level portions of it were not aligned (stacked) nor moving at the same speed so it's like it was literally sliced in half and has been sliding apart in separate directions (I know that is a non-"technical" way of putting it but... )! It's been interesting to "visually" see this happen compared to the almost "perfect" Dorian.

Bottomed out this morning at 50. The ISS overflight last night was great with few if any clouds (looked like there may have been some cirrus here and there). Another opportunity tonight (about an hour earlier - just before 8 pm now) so looking forward to that. Every once in a while I check the flyover schedule so it's not like it is a major event to see these, even during the day, but with all the overcast and rain the past year, it's often been hard to catch one under ideal viewing conditions and at a good angle. Am currently up to 59 and clear.

8 am and it is weakening and the big puffball is having issues forming some kind of recognizable eye -

Was looking at the GFS 6z and the Euro 0z and it seems there's an expectation that Jerry will weaken as it moves past the Leewards (shear?) and then sortof gets itself back together and continues to restrengthen (but not by much) on its way past Bermuda. The 6z GEFS appears to have initialized with the large dome of high pressure currently over my area, not in the right place and much further south (although it is supposed to move there eventually)!

11 pm/2am/5am updates (now a CAT 2 moving along at a good clip, but with fluctuating pressure). The central line of the cone (verbatim) is a direct hit on Bermuda -

Dropsonde #5 from AF304 into the NE eyewall found 88 knots and if valid and accepted, Jerry could be upgraded to a CAT 2.

Recon found a 978 in its initial pass over what is supposedly an "eye" (I can't see an eye... it must have glaucoma or something ).

8 pm update (Jerry getting robust... just 6 mph away from CAT 2 but getting closer to a direct Bermuda hit) -

That would make sense given where the storm is at the moment. AF304 is en route to the storm at this moment (NOAA9 is still surveying the perimeter).

It was listed as a "Training Mission" so they may just be training and reporting when they can. It got done flying over P.R. and is still going to the SE.