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Hurricane Agnes

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Everything posted by Hurricane Agnes

  1. Hurricane Agnes
    Wonder if it's an AI test run? Will see what verifies!
  2. Hurricane Agnes
    I would agree with that. You can always chunk and flick away a top crust and have powder underneath that you could probably use something like a leaf blower to move around. Leaving bare pavement with sleet/ZR means whipping out the ice chopper and some good rock salt or something to make a dent in it and a snowblower would choke on that (they often choke on wet snow as it is).
  3. Hurricane Agnes
    Just went out and measured and have 2.0" on the nose of literal baby powder snow. The kind that every kid would hate trying to make snowballs or a snowman! It started here around 3 am so just over 4 hours and apparently at around 1/2" per hour. The intensity has picked up some though. Temp is 11 with dp 9, so a rare bitter cold/dry snow - similar to what I recall in 1996 except half the temp (that storm had temps IMBY holding around 23F through much of it)!
  4. Hurricane Agnes
    Have had SN- to SN the past hour here in NW Philly and it has dusted all but treated surfaces, thanks to a temp of 13 and dp 6. Here we go!
  5. Hurricane Agnes
    Jinx!
  6. Hurricane Agnes
    I got a bunch of snapshots of similar as texts from my sister and niece. Had to talk them down off the cliff. Throwing in the 0z HRRR for 24 hours from now.
  7. Hurricane Agnes
    For some reason, I'm thinking there will be a finish of going back to snow as it pulls away, drawing the cold air back down again, so it's a sleet sandwich..
  8. Hurricane Agnes
    We're at nowcasting time (vs wishcasting) and will soon be doing obs. If this were a classic "Miller A" or a clipper, it would be easier to model. It's be more of a PITA because it starts at night.
  9. Hurricane Agnes
    They may do an update later tonight at say 8 pm-ish. Mike posted earlier in this thread about how much of a mess it was to try to communicate to the public about what may happen and I agree. I posted earlier about anything "looking like" a "Miller B" is always a PITA to try to nail down. And we all have experienced the "dry slots" that happen with that type of storm just before any coastal starts revving up.
  10. Hurricane Agnes
    I don't think that is a "final map". It would be their latest version based on the current guidance and input from the latest model runs that they use to do the snow forecasts. They may revise later tonight and tomorrow depending on when any changeover happens.
  11. Hurricane Agnes
    Adding those maps. And I did notice it was adding some inches for a few hours more - at least to places well west of us. Apple has this for their description of the app and sources (seems like they claim to use a lot of foreign sources although those might be tweaked for use for people who live in those countries) - https://support.apple.com/en-us/105038 One of my sisters and a niece have been using that app and sending screenshots of the snow forecast calamity!
  12. Hurricane Agnes
    What I heard on the radio yesterday was that the city hadn't expected the November snow so they cut into their stocks for that, and then used up some for the last 2-day storm. But they said they had enough for this upcoming storm. I think the bigger issue was the salt for consumers (e.g., ice melt), which has disappeared out of the stores, and from some posts I saw on Nextdoor, some smaller hardware stores were price gouging what they had.
  13. Hurricane Agnes
    I remember some sleet storm since I moved to my current location, which was 2016 (but after any winter weather, so something 2017+). I know the threads are here for that. 2017 - 2019 (notably 2017 - 2018) were significant "recent" years.
  14. Hurricane Agnes
    Was looking at some cool temp animations that I generated from the 12z 3k NAM for 2m & 700mb temps. You can see what the NAM thinks is the issue...
  15. Hurricane Agnes
    Your wish is my command!
  16. Hurricane Agnes
    What popped in my mind is a "clash of the titans". If it snows hard enough and the cold air clashes with the warm nose, it could get convective and maybe even produce "thundersnow". It seems all these signals for a big "thump to sleet" suggests some high in/hr before a changeover. ETA - 12z 3k NAM running...
  17. Hurricane Agnes
    The GFS 6z just for completeness although we are obviously in the mesos/short term ranges.
  18. Hurricane Agnes
    6zs - 3k NAM & EC -
  19. Hurricane Agnes
    Haven't had chance to deep dive into weather.us's stuff but here is the 0z NAM p-type from that.
  20. Hurricane Agnes
    No 0z for that yet (at least that I have access to). Last was 18z.
  21. Hurricane Agnes
    0z NAM + the temps from it at 700 mb. You can see why it's doing what it's doing with what it thinks is gonna happen.
  22. Hurricane Agnes
    Waiting for some more frames on it but it definitely has a dividing line there.
  23. Hurricane Agnes
    My dewpoint just went negative (-1) so this PV means business. Temp is down to 21. If that kind of dry air hangs around for long enough, I can imagine a period of virga. 0z 3k NAM is running.
  24. Hurricane Agnes
    The ocean is a laggard for seasonal change in temps and doesn't chill completely until like February, which is why our springs can get strung out into May and sometimes June, with a number of bouts of March snow (the kind of snow people wanted the December before )!
  25. Hurricane Agnes
    Surface map is showing the front has crossed the area and my dp dropped down to 6F within the past hour. Am currently at 30 after getting up to 37 as a high with 18 dp.
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