Hurricane Agnes

We have been coming into 12k NAM range and the 6z out to 84 (its cutoff) was a complete fish storm for this area.

The 18z AIGFS tries to tuck it in before it boots it OTS.

Back during the '96 storm, Philly was dumping so much snow in the Schuylkill that it got blocked up, so they had to dump in the Delaware. There are a few "infamous" pics of that still around. Then a week or two later, the temps went up into the 60s with overruning rain and the Schuykill flood pretty badly. I remember when the water finally went down and I was driving to work along it and you could see the water lines high up on the plowed snow mounds... plus there was a huge tree trunk that got wedged near the top of an arch of one of the stone railroad bridges that goes over the river! That tree trunk was there for months and they eventually did remove it. They have now been using huge "snow melter" trucks to melt the snow - at least downtown. They are doing that today around City Hall. I remember seeing one after I think, the 2010 or 2014 snow.

I was out around that time finishing up getting the snow off the roof of the car (a SUV) and just as I was about to come in, there were some flurries. Currently overcast and 22 with dp 10. Had a low of 11 and high of 23. (have avoided the midrange model freakout but will try to start checking the runs tomorrow )

This is the method I used a few years ago. I like these little videos from a series made for CoCoRaHS observers (they go in order for what you need to know and do) - They have some of the series here - https://www.youtube.com/@cocorahs

It took forever to get out back because of the drifted crust up against the back door. Crust BECAUSE this thing came to an end with either ZR and/or FZDZ. Trying to chunk some snow/sleet/ice off the step was a bear... Earlier, the sleet just pushed aside with my "SnoBrum" like the powdery snow but not this time. Confirmed the ZR/FZDZ after seeing accretion of about 0.1" on the bare car surfaces (snow blew off much of anything that was on the car sides) and metal surfaces like metal rails. Ended up with an additional 1.5" of sleet on top of the earlier 1.75" for 3.25" of sleet. That formed a layer on top of the earlier (compacted with some loss from wind) 4.0" of snow for 7.25". Currently a balmy 21 with dp 19.

See that in central PA moving this way and agree about any travel. This will be a bear to clear.

Still sleeting here and it is piling up. I had to get the shovel to push it away from the door (we have a service that does the lots and walks, etc here but they abandoned ship for now ). Currently 17, which is actually my high for the day so far (after an 11 low), with a dp that has been gradually increasing and now up to 15.

Blowing and drifting. I have over 1 ft drifts and I know that snow blew off the top of accumulation where my board is. When I stepped out on the patio for my 5 pm measurement, I really sunk in and I did do some ruler measurements at other locations on the patio at that time, and was getting anywhere from 7' - 11" at 5 pm (patio is poured concrete but I have a bunch of containers out there too so I really don't have a good flat surface for the board except up on a table. The 4" measurement was done at around 11 am before the switch to sleet that happened just before noon.

The other models weren't showing ip until Sunday and were overdoing the snow thump in the I-95 corridor/city. Paul had posted a NAM sleet map back last Thursday and it was persistent with it. It was just the past day or two when the weather services had to scale back the city numbers. The other models were also discounting the ZR and now you have ZR in south Jersey and moving in to PA.

Did a 5pm measurement and got another 0.75" of sleet and now have a snow/sleet total of 5.75" Still had heavy sleet going at the time but it is like course sand - easy to push and it was easy to clear the board. It keeps drifting up to my back door and now my front door. ZR line looks to be approaching just below the city. Gonna say it again - NAM nailed it.

Have about 80% snow/sleet mix now with temp at 15 and dp 13. Still wondering about that firehose headed this way.

Just measured the board. Currently puking sleet again and measured 1" of it. That would bring my snow/sleet total to 5". Temp now "up to" 16 with dp 14.

That may have been what I have been seeing. It was coming down like white rain and not as pingers but apparently didn't last long enough for accretion (so far) and am back to mostly pingers/snow.

Checked and am back to about 50/50 snow/sleet (can definitely hear the pingers again). Not seeing accretion so if there was rain mixed it, it may have been FRDZ. Currently 15 with dp 13.

I think the NAM was taking it as a long duration (into Monday) event for whatever frozen ptype was going to fall. Since this is pulling a lot of moisture from the Gulf, it could continue to go for some time as long as it doesn't get blocked too much. Added a map below from the SE and you can see the firehose of warm moisture coming out the Gulf. I have switched back to mostly fine show and hear very little pingers but at the rate the flakes are falling, it *might be* a rain/snow mix.

Yeah that depiction is pretty cool and is also capturing the "overrunning" rain of this event that had been forecast early on and now as it moves east, TN is getting some nasty ZR.

Did some fooling around with the weathermodels.com stuff and found this (it was definitely what the NAM has shown for a couple days in a row) -

Have been puking sleet the past half hour, where the earlier mixing was there about 10 minutes ago and is now pure sleet, with some blowing snow mixing in from roof tops. Temp is up to 15 and dp 12. Well that might depend on what that High sitting over Maine does.

Am thinking some wrap-around snow finish once the low moves away. It's sitting right near Hampton, VA. There's some real cold air still out there.

Currently have a snow/sleet mix - you can see the flakes and hear the pingers. Temp is currently 13 with dp 11.

Yup a weekend and it ended the day before my birthday. Did a birthday Jeb Walk (clear and sunny) down the middle of the plowed street along the side of my apartment building, right to the supermarket to get the usual "french toast supplies". There were 6ft plowed mounds on either side of the street with a "path" carved through them near intersections. The NAM had been showing this run after run the past couple days. All bubbling up from the south and brushing the area. Paul even posted some sleet maps. It was showing more ice chances south of here and down that way. I know I was concerned about ZR down there too. Confirmed. Started less than an hour after I cleared the board.

I am getting a lot of blowing and drifting and had a 1ft drift up against the top of my step going down to the patio. I did an 11 am measurement from the board and have 4" so I know I lost some from the drift (my back faces NE). Thankfully it was easy to move it away from the step with my car "SnoBrum" and also clear the board. Currently SN, fog, and 13, with dp 11. It's wild looking at the CC because it is forming that warm wave just like the NAM predicted! I had mentioned how the '96 storm held in the low 20s (IIRC ~23F) through the duration (and this is much colder). I also used to have co-workers from Chicago who used to pooh-pooh our whining about shoveling back then because they could just get a regular broom to brush off the car and use a leaf blower to blow the stuff off the walks. Now 30 years later, they have learned what "wet snow" is like.

Wonder if it's an AI test run? Will see what verifies!