Hurricane Agnes

Just measured the board. Currently puking sleet again and measured 1" of it. That would bring my snow/sleet total to 5". Temp now "up to" 16 with dp 14.

That may have been what I have been seeing. It was coming down like white rain and not as pingers but apparently didn't last long enough for accretion (so far) and am back to mostly pingers/snow.

Checked and am back to about 50/50 snow/sleet (can definitely hear the pingers again). Not seeing accretion so if there was rain mixed it, it may have been FRDZ. Currently 15 with dp 13.

I think the NAM was taking it as a long duration (into Monday) event for whatever frozen ptype was going to fall. Since this is pulling a lot of moisture from the Gulf, it could continue to go for some time as long as it doesn't get blocked too much. Added a map below from the SE and you can see the firehose of warm moisture coming out the Gulf. I have switched back to mostly fine show and hear very little pingers but at the rate the flakes are falling, it *might be* a rain/snow mix.

Yeah that depiction is pretty cool and is also capturing the "overrunning" rain of this event that had been forecast early on and now as it moves east, TN is getting some nasty ZR.

Did some fooling around with the weathermodels.com stuff and found this (it was definitely what the NAM has shown for a couple days in a row) -

Have been puking sleet the past half hour, where the earlier mixing was there about 10 minutes ago and is now pure sleet, with some blowing snow mixing in from roof tops. Temp is up to 15 and dp 12. Well that might depend on what that High sitting over Maine does.

Am thinking some wrap-around snow finish once the low moves away. It's sitting right near Hampton, VA. There's some real cold air still out there.

Currently have a snow/sleet mix - you can see the flakes and hear the pingers. Temp is currently 13 with dp 11.

Yup a weekend and it ended the day before my birthday. Did a birthday Jeb Walk (clear and sunny) down the middle of the plowed street along the side of my apartment building, right to the supermarket to get the usual "french toast supplies". There were 6ft plowed mounds on either side of the street with a "path" carved through them near intersections. The NAM had been showing this run after run the past couple days. All bubbling up from the south and brushing the area. Paul even posted some sleet maps. It was showing more ice chances south of here and down that way. I know I was concerned about ZR down there too. Confirmed. Started less than an hour after I cleared the board.

I am getting a lot of blowing and drifting and had a 1ft drift up against the top of my step going down to the patio. I did an 11 am measurement from the board and have 4" so I know I lost some from the drift (my back faces NE). Thankfully it was easy to move it away from the step with my car "SnoBrum" and also clear the board. Currently SN, fog, and 13, with dp 11. It's wild looking at the CC because it is forming that warm wave just like the NAM predicted! I had mentioned how the '96 storm held in the low 20s (IIRC ~23F) through the duration (and this is much colder). I also used to have co-workers from Chicago who used to pooh-pooh our whining about shoveling back then because they could just get a regular broom to brush off the car and use a leaf blower to blow the stuff off the walks. Now 30 years later, they have learned what "wet snow" is like.

Wonder if it's an AI test run? Will see what verifies!

I would agree with that. You can always chunk and flick away a top crust and have powder underneath that you could probably use something like a leaf blower to move around. Leaving bare pavement with sleet/ZR means whipping out the ice chopper and some good rock salt or something to make a dent in it and a snowblower would choke on that (they often choke on wet snow as it is).

Just went out and measured and have 2.0" on the nose of literal baby powder snow. The kind that every kid would hate trying to make snowballs or a snowman! It started here around 3 am so just over 4 hours and apparently at around 1/2" per hour. The intensity has picked up some though. Temp is 11 with dp 9, so a rare bitter cold/dry snow - similar to what I recall in 1996 except half the temp (that storm had temps IMBY holding around 23F through much of it)!

Have had SN- to SN the past hour here in NW Philly and it has dusted all but treated surfaces, thanks to a temp of 13 and dp 6. Here we go!

Jinx!

I got a bunch of snapshots of similar as texts from my sister and niece. Had to talk them down off the cliff. Throwing in the 0z HRRR for 24 hours from now.

For some reason, I'm thinking there will be a finish of going back to snow as it pulls away, drawing the cold air back down again, so it's a sleet sandwich..

We're at nowcasting time (vs wishcasting) and will soon be doing obs. If this were a classic "Miller A" or a clipper, it would be easier to model. It's be more of a PITA because it starts at night.

They may do an update later tonight at say 8 pm-ish. Mike posted earlier in this thread about how much of a mess it was to try to communicate to the public about what may happen and I agree. I posted earlier about anything "looking like" a "Miller B" is always a PITA to try to nail down. And we all have experienced the "dry slots" that happen with that type of storm just before any coastal starts revving up.

I don't think that is a "final map". It would be their latest version based on the current guidance and input from the latest model runs that they use to do the snow forecasts. They may revise later tonight and tomorrow depending on when any changeover happens.

Adding those maps. And I did notice it was adding some inches for a few hours more - at least to places well west of us. Apple has this for their description of the app and sources (seems like they claim to use a lot of foreign sources although those might be tweaked for use for people who live in those countries) - https://support.apple.com/en-us/105038 One of my sisters and a niece have been using that app and sending screenshots of the snow forecast calamity!

What I heard on the radio yesterday was that the city hadn't expected the November snow so they cut into their stocks for that, and then used up some for the last 2-day storm. But they said they had enough for this upcoming storm. I think the bigger issue was the salt for consumers (e.g., ice melt), which has disappeared out of the stores, and from some posts I saw on Nextdoor, some smaller hardware stores were price gouging what they had.

I remember some sleet storm since I moved to my current location, which was 2016 (but after any winter weather, so something 2017+). I know the threads are here for that. 2017 - 2019 (notably 2017 - 2018) were significant "recent" years.