Volcanic Winter

You could say it’s the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum… (Sorry, traveled far for that terrible joke, I’ll show myself out)

The glove of Michigan caught the 540 line .

This was a nice one for the coast.

Nah I totally agree. Was poking fun at how many see them on the overall forum these days. “Keeping it real” is a good way to phrase it, I’m pretty skeptical and rational-minded by nature and even I’m totally guilty of getting sucked into emotional hype for a desired outcome. This place is a treasure trove of knowledge of all sorts, and I’ve learned an unbelievable amount from all of you. Not many old school boards around these days with this much brainpower in one spot, at least that I’m aware of.

Ah yes, the Four Horsemen of the Warmpocalypse.

You could come visit me once I set up my log cabin in Katmai national park.

@LongBeachSurfFreak Chiles-Cerro Negro is my dark horse pick for a large VEI 6 event in the near term future. It has been inactive for potentially tens of thousands of years, has evolved dacitic magma (usually explosive but can be effusive or exhibit both behaviors like Cerro Azul in the 19th and 20th centuries, one effusive and one explosive eruption both nearly VEI 6 by volume), and has been undergoing immense swarming activity for over a decade now heralding the system having woke up from a long, long slumber. Just some speculation. I do think this system is waking up “for real,” and there’s a large ancient VEI 7 caldera nearby to CCN (checking a volcano’s neighbors is a good way to get an idea of the potential of a given system, with some caveats - I’m not suggesting CCN may do a 7). But it may only erupt effusively, or it may do nothing at all. The magma is evolved but it’s believed the volcano was mostly effusive when active during the Pleistocene, however having sat dormant for all this time I’d expect cooler and more viscous magma ready to blow. One I’m keeping an eye on, but volcanoes don’t blow before they’re ready. It may not even happen in our lifetimes, or the swarming could eventually stop tomorrow even. Still, it’s my dark horse pick for sure. https://www.volcanocafe.org/chile-cerro-negro-is-this-the-one/ https://www.volcanocafe.org/chiles-cerro-negro-the-final-swarm/ Guest posts on VC from Tallis who has been tracking this system, and interestingly he’s a member of AmericanWX too.

At least I have the vibe!

Thank you @bluewave . I do feel it’s slightly disingenuous to act like we shouldn’t expect snow in Dec, just not with the frequency or consistency of Jan and Feb. And it’s certainly the most likely winter month to strike out on, especially nowadays. I view it as sort of a subconscious psychological cope for recent years, with absolutely no disrespect intended. I have plenty of my own of those. And of course I’m not speaking of expecting monster storms every Dec, but flakes should be flying. We were shown how much Dec has warmed and combined with any already extant decadal variability we’re definitely losing opportunities here.

Of course. They’re anomalous events, but clearly “possible.” Was just interesting to having back to back hard hitters like that, with Boxing Day a clear all time great storm for those that cashed in.

Thank you. Found this as well, definitely high teens for my location at the time. https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/StormReports/DEC19-202009.pdf That was one of my favorite storms ever for various circumstantial life reasons (I met my now wife summer 09, we just moved in together while I was attending school at MU).

What did NYC get in Dec 09? I have to go back to old pics but I was in Long Branch for that storm and it at least had to be high teens. Cars were buried and shoveling out sucked. It was glorious. Crazy to have high level back to back punches in Dec and then a long string of nothing.

For the record I’m not really seeing much in the way of bickering right now and thought this has been a rather congenial back and forth of various concerns and viewpoints. Definitely better than at some earlier junctures IMO. Appreciating all the insights shared right now.

Appreciate your thoughts, all well understood. The question becomes can we score on a storm with a good track in a marginal Jan airmass that isn’t fully cooked? I certainly hope that’s the case, though my expectations are measured.

It really appears to me you have a group of people here or otherwise that take 2 week plus guidance in good faith (when it’s consistent, to be fair) and those are that are always skeptical of such guidance. I see a lot of this on this forum overall boiling down to that. Guys like @40/70 Benchmark really put an enormous amount of work and effort into a holistic seasonal forecast that I find incredibly detailed and impressive, and people like him really stick their necks out doing that type of forecasting. It’s commendable, even when a miss IMHO. I certainly wouldn’t and definitely couldn’t do it. There just appears to be a lot of specific anomalous features in the broader hemispheric pattern like the record RNA and deep southwest troughs of past winters that really seem to screw the integrity of longer range pattern guidance. That kind of volatility really makes trusting the longer range difficult, but I’ve heard @brooklynwx99 state it and I totally get what he’s saying, that’s kind of how this works and that’s kind of the tool you’re supposed to use. But things lately appear more chaotic and subject to extreme variation. Sorry to ramble, just musing a bit. I’m sure a lot of Twitter forecasters employ hype tactics for views, but also it really has to suck right now especially to try and do long range forecasting with any accuracy. And I don’t begrudge those that do in good faith and ultimately fall short given the chaotic flux that has been our winter patterns lately. That’s my ultimate point.

Yeah perspective is in order (for myself as well, I’ve been bummed for sure). I think it’s very logical to see this as potentially a cooler redux of 15-16. Though I wouldn’t ever count on a HECS, we should fair better rolling into prime winter.

Yeah it did, I remember when that arctic front moved through, it was pretty bonkers how hard temps crashed.

In these (sadly) lean times, I wanted to share an outstanding recent article about the 1815 colossal Tambora eruption for anyone that may be interested in learning about it. https://www.volcanocafe.org/tambora-making-history/ For reference Tambora was as much as 15x larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, and about 125x larger than Mt St Helens. It’s a scale of volcanism that’s largely unfathomable for a person to conceptualize.

The LIA was thought to end roughly in 1850, though there’s varying opinions. The last time the earth had over 400ppm CO2 was in the Pliocene a few million years ago, and it was roughly ~3C warmer than pre-industrial averages. The trajectory we’re on is pretty clear from paleoclimate examples. Temperature follows CO2 and there are natural processes (volcanism and tectonics, as well as erosional processes) that influence CO2 over long timescales and can shift climate states. What’s happening the past century is unprecedented in the climate record in terms of speed and intensity, outside of dramatic instantaneous events like a large bolide impact.

I mean we want to see snow, most of us, right? The point is even if temperatures aren’t horrifically warm (and it still may progress that way as the Pac freight train sets up, I gather), we’re still in a situation where snow is unlikely as things stand. A little above normal without a good, cold airmass anywhere on the continent in Dec still before peak winter climo isn’t going to do us any favors even for a storm with a good track. Perhaps it’s possible still if exceedingly lucky, (especially the northern part of the sub forum) it’s just more odds against us than for us. And no, it doesn’t always snow in Dec. I don’t think that does much to assuage disappointment if we’re staring down an unfavorable period (yet again). I’d rather have the opportunity and miss than have no opportunity at all, but that is merely my perspective.

There were a couple posts in the El Niño thread showing that the MJO near or inside the COD essentially all the way around was correlated better to BN conditions in the east. Obviously there are other factors, just that most BN periods here showed an MJO inside or near the circle (left side ofc was better but there were plots all the way around). Was very interesting but I don’t know enough to interpret it further or how that gets modulated by other aspects of the hemispheric pattern. So take with grain of salt.

They need it. Happy for them if it works out.

@bluewave , @Allsnow Can you guys stop mind-controlling the weather like two supervillains already? That’d be great.

Or, perhaps we can get the storm itself to widen by about 100 mi instead to keep all of us in the jackpot. That’s totally feasible, yes? May need to look at Day After Tomorrow for appropriate storm analogues … Seriously though, it’s fun when we can all cash in at some point, even with different events (though my area often shares big storms with yours, they’re normally the coast crawler MECS and HECS like 1/29/22 and thus are rarer). I get that winters can favor one area over another from time to time, (and more often than not that’s at your latitude or thereabouts). Here’s to hoping when all is said and done this winter has at least produced something notable for the majority of us. Until then, I defer to the excellent analysis you guys continue to fill this thread with. Disagreement is part of scientific debate and serves to broaden perspectives, so I’m here for that, too.

The New England banter and bickering in the main thread is absolutely hilarious at times, especially when it’s more lighthearted. Some real characters there.