Weathertree2

That is an insane amount of snow lol

No one please take this post the wrong way but I though there was a specific observation string or thread; I like reading the observations but when they are intermingled with posts regarding long range pattern stuff it just gets messy.

True enough it will change thanks!

What am I missing these seem to be modeled south of us. Are we expecting the NW jog?

That is really really far to the South; I would have expected to see some extreme cold here with it that far South but it is not really

And warms enough to rain at end of run, which two runs earlier, depicted a historic ice storm for west TN

Been a long time since seen such a good winter pattern, hope everyone gets their snow fix this season!

This is one mess of a system, been rainy here overnight and all morning sitting at 32 blah go away

Perhaps depends what model you choose.

The whole system seems disjointed

I know if Middle TN gets it again, we will be well on the way to one of the snowiest seasons of the last several years, really reminds me of the winters of my childhood - 1970's

I feel for you; I can say I have allot less experience than most on here but it just seems like this one vs the last one has a higher bust potential.

I got 8"

Um that doesnt look like the forecast that Nashville is referencing, must be more of the "stuff" on the internet

000 FXUS64 KOHX 132118 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 318 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 .DISCUSSION... UGH! What a hard and challenging forecast. The upper impulse will continue to move through the area for the next couple of hours and skies should clear out a bit overnight. Tomorrow /Friday/ will be dry. Now here comes the challenges! The models are still all over the place with no consistency to each other or even to themselves. The NAM low had been moving north to come in line better with the GFS and EURO but not the 12/18Z runs. Was hoping there would be some kind of meeting in the middle for the models...but no luck as of right now. The previous forecast had the heaviest snow over NW Tennessee and along the TN/KY state line. Current forecast now has the heaviest snow over the Plateau. Let/s go with there will be a band of heavier snow somewhere around I-40 and north. Where...your guess is as good as mine. The higher amounts look to be in the 4-6" range...not some of the crazier high end extreme amounts floating around the internet right now. Friday night into Saturday expect a really cold rain maybe with a few flurries mixed in. It will take some time for the boundary layer to cool down and moisten up. If any snow falls no accumulations expected. With highs on Saturday in the 40s it will be raining until possible late afternoon where there could be a rain/snow mix first starting in the Fentress/Picket county areas then spreading down the Plateau and west across the KY/TN state line. That rain snow mix continues southward overnight and changes to all snow for I-40 northward and the Plateau. The system pulls out Sunday night and morning lows on Monday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Would expect there will be some travel issues Sunday night and maybe into Monday. Highs on Monday in the 30s...so there could be some residual wintery stuff around. Lows Monday night into Tuesday continued cold in the 20s...but highs on Tuesday in the 40s so everything should melt. There is another short wave Wednesday and Wednesday night. Chance PoP no really QPF expected at this time. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. Mid clouds and a few sprinkles will move across terminals this afternoon, but conditions should remain VFR at all sites. CSV could see some fog development early Friday morning thanks to the additional moisture pumped in by this afternoon`s wave. Visibilities may fall for a few hours around sunrise. Winds will be out of the northwest around 5 to 10 knots today, then become lighter and more northerly overnight tonight.

I am liking that run for sure looks good for my area

Yes, would be nice to see this one pan out for sure

Wow that seems like a big shift

Really not liking the icing that the GFS is depicting north of Nashville before the snow

We would be in rare territory if that occurred for sure

6.3"

Some pix from last system, ended up with about 8" imby

Fair to say that someone is going to get plastered. Maybe by this time tomorrow models will have better handle

Got missed on that run also