WxSynopsisDavid

Those wave heights are fairly significant and increasing gradually

Well…..there’s a likely 20 that can be added to the death toll

31 minutes ago, MANDA said:

As bad as some of these pictures are I don't think this is the worst of it.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11261707/Monster-Hurricane-Ian-devastates-Florida-leaving-2million-without-power-trapped-homes.html

Yeah…..we aren’t seeing the worst of it. This is going to be like some of the high-end canes in the past. Whereas we don’t see the worst until like the Day 3 range when they start to get to those areas.

Here we go with this BS we endured after Katrina. The ignorance of some people…idk why I even try. What’s said is I even scrolled through Twitter and saw post from local Mets down there saying “we had little time to prepare” or “this was only suppose to be a weak hurricane”

Just now, HKY_WX said:

Haven't seen surge images like this since Katrina.

Hurricane Michael had ridiculous storm surge around Mexico Beach, so for me, that’s the recent storm that comes to mind.

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Surge pictures are incredible. Watching CNN right now with Bill Weir in Punta Gorda currently in the eye. I must say the wind damage is surprisingly less than I would expect from a strong Cat 4. 

Unfortunately we never know the true extent of the wind damage until after the fact

Just now, BYG Jacob said:

Eye has contracted to 20 nm since the onset of the ERC yesterday. Ian won’t be a borderline category 5 for long.

It contracted earlier between 2am and 4am before this RI process

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like it's starting to feel the shear a bit

Really doesn’t matter now, damage has been done. Whether it stays 155mph or weakens to 130mph, or perhaps 110mph, the surge event is going to be catastrophic. Too late in my opinion

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

162 knot wind picked up on this dropsonde 

Impressive but not the surface level

Well…..blending the Flight Level and SFMR data this yields surface winds of 155mph

1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said:

High end Cat 4. Closing in on Cat 5


.

I pulled it and thought it was current but according to the time that would of been like 4:57am….unless I’m going stir crazy. I deleted the post

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Environmental pressure is running a bit high, so this is getting close to Hugo. 

A major at landfall looking likely at this point, unless it stalls just offshore while shear eats it alive. 

It’s also now over a branch of the loop current which is also aiding the RI we are seeing….along with friction and angle of approach.

Ian is now a Category 4, dataset supports it. Also, Ian is an intensifying Category 4

12 minutes ago, Amped said:

Extrap down to 942 SFMR around 107kt, that's on the NW side of the eye.

Curious as to what they find

Eye has contracted and is tightening up. Deep convection firing in the N/NE eyewall right now. At 2:00am the eye was over 30mi wide. Now at 3:25am the eye is about 22-23mi wide.

Looks like not only is the eye clearing but there are what appears to be mesovortices rotating around inside the center which is giving that ragged appearance on IR. It almost appears like the eye might be a pinwheel eye

Just now, AnthonyEC said:

Is it just me or is it heading just west of north?  It has been a long day and I may be seeing things. 
 

may be just directly north over the entire radar presentation. 

Its wobbling back and forth, which TC's typically do as their tracks are not smooth

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

Based on the radar, ERC is still wrapping up, which explains pressure increase.

In my view, it looks like another round of RI about to begin, especially cause convective DMAX is starting. 

The angle of approach and potential friction Ian is feeling would likely enhance any RI process that commences. Correct me if im wrong, given what I just said and the environment Ian is in, this is not the time to have a major hurricane undergo RI. There's little real estate between Ian and Florida now. Also, the classic limiting factors like dry air and shear have done nothing to limit/hinder Ian. With the deep convection primarily located upshear like what was noted by someone else in here earlier, Ian will continue to be resilient to dry air/shear.

NOAA NHC Recon Hunters will be dropping a UAS/drone inside Ian tomorrow that will last 3.5hrs. Curious to see what it finds and the data that is collected

9 minutes ago, Hotair said:

This model is calling for Sanibel landfall

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bill Karins

 

@BillKarins

 

 

Our short-range high-resolution weather models are now close enough to landfall for a forecast. This is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. Comes out every hour. This run brings #Ian to Sanibel 2 pm

I really want to comment to this on Twitter but I feel it’s a waste of time. If he’s that ignorant to be using the HRRR right now it will be like talking to a brick wall to make a point. I really wish, as a local met down there, he will focus more on the environment and mesoscale instead of the HRRR’s ever so changing hourly landfall locations. 

COAMPS 12z, waiting to see if we ever get an 18z run or if they are gonna skip past the 18z

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

HWRF just took the storm from Columbus Ga to Columbia SC in one run… it’s… something 

Yes they are hurricane models but they tend to have issues concerning inland tracks at this range. For the time being I would be more focused and concerned with the environment they depict later tonight ahead of Ian

3 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said:

HWRF and HMON always seem to overdo pressure drops. 

True but we are now inside the short range and those models are extremely efficient with picking up mesoscale features. I would be concerned with the environment they are depicting later tonight and why they are rapidly intensifying Ian. I haven’t looked at the runs yet so idk what they are picking up but I’ll give them a look and see

Just now, Chinook said:

latest storm cross-section

 

Wow

Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Lots of lightning in the new eyewall in the last 10 mins 

1. It’s either completing the EWRC and starting to rapidly intensify again

2. Some dry air entrainment is happening