WxSynopsisDavid

4 minutes ago, Gobucks15 said:

The fact the Mayfield, KY tornado was not rated EF5 still bugs me to this day. This was easily the most violent tornado we’ve seen in a long time

I agree with that statement. 2 sections of that damage path warranted EF5. The subdivision near the water (can’t remember if he exact location) featured numerous well built homes wiped clean.

Just now, shaggy said:

DOW recorded winds over 200mph with the greenfield tornado

Reading was 215mph and 600ft off the surface. So plausible to say 190-200mph.

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

may very well only be an EF-2 in that case.

Numerous slabs wiped clean have bent anchor bolts. Tim has rated past tornadoes EF5 (ex: the 2011 EF5’s) off of this sole indicator. That and/or missing anchor bolts, but there’s no reports of any missing anchor bolts, as of yet.

Greenfield, IA tornado will be “at least EF4”. Pretty significant damage indicators being found. Of significant, the asphalt scouring and how the debris looks granulated. Typically these are trademarks of upper echelon high end tornadoes, along with debris lofting 40k feet into the atmosphere. I would venture to say preliminary rated 190mph or 200mph until engineers get on site to conduct their analysis. Engineers such as Tim Marshall.

Got a decent view in Huddleston, VA

Significant Tornado just tracked out of Alabama into Georgia.

Looks like a potential meso-vortex with a satellite.

45 minutes ago, andyhb said:

I think the extent of the tree damage probably pushed them over the threshold for EF4. That stuff was high end, especially just NE of town.

I know Bartlesville, OK is getting engineers on-site to further survey the 2x4’s impaled into a concrete wall at the Hampton Inn.

Concerning Barnsdall, there’s questions regarding the few structures wiped clean to the slab. A few of them were mobile homes, but one was thrown a good distance away. One of the structures reduced to slab was not a mobile home though.

7 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Right.

We can bring up edge/extreme cases as a comparison until we're blue in the face if it just to be pedantic. But while anything is possible, as of now I'm not seeing evidence to suggest we're going to have 13+ more confirmed reports of torrnadoes forthcoming. And that's a good thing IMO.

Regardless, it was still quite the active day to top off what's been a fairly acfive season for much of the Plains.

Still immature and premature at this point to be screaming bust. It’s very possible the survey teams find additional tornado paths. At this point it makes no sense why some are still screaming bust when a town was destroyed with known fatalities.

38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It appears the door is through the tree, not behind it.

 

 

I would like to see a side angle of that. That view is not conclusive, very possible it’s propped up behind the tree. TWC and major news outlets have been caught in the past staging/propping up debris to make the scene appear for catastrophic.

Isolated supercell going up SW of OKC near Hobart.

3 minutes ago, vman722 said:

Not calling bust on the nocturnal threat, but it’s safe to say the couple discrete supercells earlier that were very similar to what the CAMS depicted underperformed the lofty expectations. There were def some brief most likely heavily rain wrapped tornadoes but overall the first part was tempered. Curious to hear from experienced Mets why they mostly failed to take advantage of the wild parameter space.

First wave initiated early, before LLJ cranked and helicity values peaked. Those things are happening as I type this….reason why I will say, yet again, the forecast was for 9pm-4am. Midnight is the sweet spot in the timing.

3 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

That's not what we do here..

No, not everyone. Just certain people who scream bust before they actually read the forecast details.

Again…come back and scream bust at 4am-5am. Bulk of this threat was forecasted to be nocturnal, around midnight. Some people need to learn basic reading skills and comprehension before posting.

27 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Southern extent of the supercells looks a little less than expected rn maybe

No, it does not. There’s 2 waves of supercells. First wave blows through, second wave overnight is what this whole forecast entices. This High Risk is for overnight/nocturnal activity. Scream bust if there’s no tornadoes in central OK by 5am. Really, the timeframe is looking to be 9pm-4am.

31 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

SPC has highlighted a swath of the plains from TX to NE for D6. May is in full swing!

 

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0403 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   For Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5, scattered to perhaps numerous
   thunderstorms are possible over a large section of the CONUS from
   the southern Plains into the Southeast. Mid 60s F to lower 70s F
   dewpoints will be common across the entire area, aided by southerly
   surface winds around an East Coast high. Aloft, generally weak flow
   will exist over the same areas, well east of a developing western
   upper trough. As such, the weak shear will likely minimize overall
   severe potential through Sunday/D5.

   For Monday/D6, models have shown increased run-to-run consistency in
   depicting a deep upper trough developing over the Great Basin and
   emerging into the Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place
   ahead of this system, which is forecast to enter the central Plains
   with a negative tilt and strong shear. While minor trough-geometry
   differences exist amongst the models, the combination of
   strengthening shear, a potentially deep surface low and ample
   moisture and instability necessitate introducing severe
   probabilities for parts of the Plains on Monday. All facets of
   severe appear possible with such a system, including supercells,
   squall lines, tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

   ..Jewell.. 05/01/2024

Shouldn’t the thread headline read “5-6-24” instead of “4-6-24”?

This might be the single most violent motion I’ve ever seen documented. 

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/4Rkder71fihzG6BF/?mibextid=WC7FNe

Reed Timmer intercepted a large tornado just north of Topeka

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

Only EF -3 for one of the largest ones near Omaha

My understanding is that it is still preliminary. I believe Tim Marshall is going to Elkhorn tomorrow to survey. He was in Marietta today and his findings at the Dollar Tree Distribution Center was the reason that tornado got upgraded to EF4.

Though DOW measurements are not used in the surveys, this is a pretty impressive measurement. DOW measured 224mph winds inside the Harlan, Iowa tornado at its peak Friday night when crossing 59. Seems plausible surface winds were between 170mph-190mph.

14z NADOCAST

4000+ SBCAPE along the OK/KS border. Latest guidance showing a string of pearls. Supercells maintain separation and intensify as they enter into the Moderate Risk hatched area. 
 

Nadocast really starting to go bonkers. Will be interesting to see what the NWS SPC does at next outlook.

Really got a bad feeling about this setup today. Everything seems to be coming together in all the wrong ways.