WxSynopsisDavid

35 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Another EF4 tornado confirmed near Tylertown MS on 3/15. First outbreak to have 3+ violent tornadoes since 4/12-13/2020.

From roughly Tylertown up through Bay Springs, 5 tornadoes went through that area. Haven’t seen that since the 3/2/12 outbreak. I remember there was an area in either Kentucky or WVA for the 3/2/12 outbreak that had 6 tornadoes train the same corridor. It’s certainly something that doesn’t happen often and typically is seen in these high-end outbreaks.

This is getting ridiculous. Areas from Tylertown to Bassfield about to be worked over by a 3rd violent tornado. Another one will be tracking to the east. 4 violent tornadoes ongoing simultaneously now.

Unreal and catastrophic situation for areas from Tylertown to Bassfield. Two likely EF4+ tornadoes training over the same areas. The lead tornado has produced an exceptionally large debris fallout that has been ongoing on radar for awhile now.

32 minutes ago, Hollie Maea said:

What is the cause for the disconnect between what people on here are saying vs the SPC? This thread is quite bearish in general while meanwhile the SPC just did the third ever Day 2 high.

The disconnect was in relation to the potential fail modes and timing issues. Those have resolved with today’s guidance so far. Reason why NWS SPC and the local NWS offices adjusted accordingly. I can say that if 18z data holds course, most of us on this thread will begin to get an idea of what tomorrow will compare to.

NWS Birmingham

56 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

I can't say I agree with you here considering that before our last Super Outbreak, 4/27/2011, we weren't aware it was going to be a super outbreak just the day before it occurred.  Storm Prediction Center Apr 26, 2011 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook we didn't even get a 45% tornado risk area until the middle of the day on 4/27/2011.

To play devil's advocate here, what do you think happens tomorrow if none of those failure modes materialize?  While I think it would be irresponsible to call for a super outbreak on any given event this far out, I feel like it's also irresponsible to suggest that we have the ability to be absolutely certain when an event will or won't be a super outbreak a this stage of the forecast..

Disagree, because there were a few of us that knew 1 day out that 4/27/11 was going to be the next Super Outbreak. Evidence of that can even be found here if you go back far enough in the threads. The fail modes we have with this weekends event and the moisture issues we have seen on the models, we didn’t have 1 day out for 4/27/11. Most of us were discussing what impact that morning MCS was going to have: would it cap the outbreak to a Regional Tornado Outbreak or create a Conus-Wide Super Outbreak? There are certain anomalous signals that when they present themselves you know if the outbreak is going to become a Super Outbreak. Research 4/3/74 and 4/27/11. And for clarification, the day before 4/27/11, I did not imagine the event producing 200+ tornadoes in that 24hr period. My expectation was total count to be similar to 4/3/74.

1 hour ago, JasonOH said:

I’ll leave the 06z HRRR run here for posterity. I think the true analogue for how this will end up is 3/21/1932. Not sure what I would put the floor at, but it’s really high in my opinion. If instability is underdone like usual, I think we are in a world of hurt with the synoptic environment being as good as it is. Barring a morning MCS, which seems unlikely at this time, I think this one is a lock for a really bad day.

To me, it’s a tick away from being a Super Outbreak. Moisture uncertainties are for me the biggest uncertainty. However, another uncertainty for me is just how this open warm sector will evolve tomorrow. In recent years we have seen these open warm sectors/loaded gun environments fail because of morning convection. Important to note, 4/27/11 had morning convection but it did nothing to temper the environment. It’s also not a great sign that the closer we get to tomorrow, the more nastier the model guidance is getting.

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

How much snow can we expect? 

Not a fan of the sarcasm for an outbreak scenario that is going to be devastating for some. Maybe in the future such banter should be directed to the banter thread.

8 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That FV3 (which is a bad model to begin with) is a tornado outbreak with a big cluster of supercells. The NAM 3 km is notorious for being too cold in WAA regimes, which will make it much less likely to generate open warm sector convection. With that said, the convective signature it is indicating there looks like the start of a significant event.

FV3, HRRR, RGEM all look very similar. NAM is very notorious being cold in WAA regimes at this range. Usually under 48hrs, NAM starts to trend towards the other CAM solutions.

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The two April 2011 outbreaks were generational events. Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that we get into that type of outbreak.

To key off your remarks, whenever the data presents it self in the future, we will know for certain when an outbreak is going to go Super Outbreak. They have a classic, textbook anomalous appearance with every facet of model data we use to measure the environment. At this range, there’s typically no limiting factors. With this weekends outbreak, there are a ton of fail modes possible. Not to mention quite a few scenarios involving timing issues. Moisture return is one of the greater uncertainties right now.

15 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

How does this compare to 2011 ? Because Atm it seems like it has the morning squall line on the models and the evening tornado threat just like in 2011.

It doesn’t compare to 2011.

2 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

I think the big saving grace is how early it's coming in.  Highest tide isn't until 6am tomorrow.   Right now the tides are fairly low, so the surge effects will be lessened quite a bit.

Dr Knabb been explaining on TWC today that surge effects will actually peak well after landfall. Forecast is for surge to peak around high-tide as the winds shift back around from the west.

6 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Tampa dodged a major bullet if that track confirms.

WFLA News Channel 8 is live streaming on Facebook. The on-air Mets disagree and said Milton is coming right into the mouth of the Bay. Just told people Tampa will be taking a direct hit.

Just now, BYG Jacob said:

It didn’t even look like it had an eye for a while. Looks like the new eye might be close to closing off and clearing out

It’s getting close, yes. Probably about 1-2hrs away from that happening.

Just now, BYG Jacob said:

Milton making a bit of a comeback on IR

Not quite, the symmetry is not there. Milton is lopsided and ragged. Not to mention the eye is still not quite organized and open yet.

Post less, read more. Before asking a question, scroll back and see if it’s already been asked, answered, or perhaps to see if someone else inadvertently answered your question.

21 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

I am impressed with how the eye has centered itself within the convection given the shear

 

Yet again, Milton is rebounding very healthy from an ERC. Continues to remain resilient to shear and dry air. Absolutely not what you want to see heading into landfall.

Milton was expected to have its bottom ripped out from this ERC and roll in as a weak Cat 3. Milton is simply holding its intensity and that strong inner core. 

Really poses a serious threat to over-performing in terms of landfall intensity. That’s if Milton continues to remain resilient, Milton will most certainly have one final intensification process as it nears land.

Would be both environmental and frictional induced. Overall, I’m not liking this trend we are seeing and starting to grow concerned of the aspect of greater intensity on landfall. Hopefully, post ERC, Milton loses the resiliency.

This would make Milton the first ATL Basin hurricane to go Sub-910 three times.

907mb

Yeah, Milton’s core is still very small and compact. Finding Milton’s peak wind is no easy task. They can easily miss it.

1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

144kt surface wind NW dropsonde. 150kt average over lowest 150m.

 

Is that correct, NW eyewall? That’s an impressive reading in the NW quad if that’s correct. Since winds are much more intense in NE quad, that would make me believe winds are around 180-185.

This is a remarkable Post-ERC recovery. Milton should begin undergoing intense, rapid pressure falls once again within the next few hours.

Milton is beginning another Rapid Intensification process. Should shear continue to relax, this will be Milton’s last chance at making a run at peak intensity. Milton starting to move over a warm eddie. Should be over this warm eddie for the next several hours. Later today into the evening and overnight, Milton will be over the Gulf Loop Current.

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Latest dropsonde. Just under Cat 5.

 

That’s also the NW Eyewall where the weaker winds tend to be. Will be interesting to see what the NE Eyewall yields.