WxSynopsisDavid

Just now, Amped said:

Charlie and Ida kept deepening until landfall despite having concentric eyewalls.   This outer eyewall seems to be providing a stable feeder band to the inner eyewall at the moment, helping maintain organization if anything.

Seems to be a climo with these gulf canes approaching Florida. Ian at one point had this feature if I recall correctly.

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

It's no doubt an organizing outer concentric band. But the eyewall is ripping right now. By far the best it has looked. Idalia has a lot of banding features spiraling into even the outer concentric band. It very well may lead to a full on ERC, but it may still strengthen quite a bit before that can starve the current eyewall. We may see this level off intensification theough landfall, but it could still deepen quite significantly tonight before that leveling occurs. Will be interesting to watch.

Really interesting but NHC states intensification will continue on landfall bringing intensity to Cat 4 as it landfalls. Seems to be specifically calling for a frictional-induced RI at landfall.

They now have landfall intensity at Category 4

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Regardless of whether or not its technically an ERC, I would think that would keep things in check at least to a degree in terms of intensity. 

Not necessarily, as mentioned this happened earlier tonight on a similar scale and Idalia managed to continue intensification. Unless it’s a true ERC then intensification should continue. I mean, while this was happening, Recon Hunters got 957mb so it didn’t hinder pressure falls at all.

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

Reminds me a bit of Dennis in 2005. Very tight core. With the hurricane force winds extending out only 25 miles, you miss them and it could be night and day.

Yeah I was thinking about Dennis, great analog to reference. Inner structure almost a carbon copy.

1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Eye is also kind of a bizarre ellipse. Not sure what to make of that

Not actually, as been mentioned earlier there’s been mesovortices rotating around the eye at times. When that happens the eye will appear ragged/rugged but it’s actually not a deterioration.

There’s a few mesovortices rotating around the eye, not something we typically see with Category 3 hurricanes. 

Just now, Master of Disaster said:

IR now shows the eye clearing out.

Can see it on satellite imagery too. Pinhole eye, so I anticipate based on previous major canes that feature pinhole eyes…a period of rapid and steep pressure falls are near. 

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Mr. Hazelton...
 

He’s a tad late to the party, Idalia is currently strengthening into a Category 3 as I type this. Considering it’s got 12hrs left, I assume “likely” is a typo. He meant to say Idalia will intensify into a Category 3.

Inner core structure is extremely healthy. Column is vertically stacked as evident with the noticeable outflow expanding across all 4 quads. Ventilation looks uninhibited, Idalia is about to tank rapidly. Could see a very steep, very sudden drop in pressure soon.

I been told they are using drones to also recon Idalia. That data set is not available to the public. It’s possible they got the 100mph reading using other methods instead of Recon Hunters.

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Good lord that’s a tight, compact eye. If that thing stays looking like a pinhole, I would hate to be the recon hunters having to fly into that sucker later today. 

Just now, Hotair said:

Cuban weather radar indicates the eyewall of Idalia has closed off. Some RI is expected now.  Storm is moving at a healthy 14 mph which is nearly 2x as fast as day prior.  This is good as it limits the amount of uncertainty in the cone. 

Faster forward speed also limits the likelihood of eyewall replacement cycles being induced. This means the chances are increasing that Idalia rolls in at peak intensity on landfall.

Idalia is…FINALLY…a Category 1 hurricane

Finally appears that the centers are aligned and stacked. Vertical column significantly healthier and less tilted. Idalia now into the southern Gulf…and rapidly getting symmetrical. Idalia has that look now, as soon as the eye clears this thing bombs. Hopefully it’s when we have recon inside the storm.

22 minutes ago, CoralRed said:

Wow! I looked this HAFS A up and it is new, which most of you probably already knew. 

What do you all think about this prediction? It sure isn't what people down there want.

It’s plausible but this hinges on Idalia taking full advantage of the pristine environment ahead. This would indicate lack of shear upon landfall and minimal hindrance from the trough. Lastly, it would suggest Idalia does not have any eyewall replacement cycles before landfall which is plausible if forward speed increases.

4 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Jesus the IMBY forecast requests seem to be worse this go around than usual. 

But how much storm surge in my back yard will there be?

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s trying. 

Indeed, finally seeing a consistent burst of deep convection and it appears that deep convection is wrapping the core now. Marketable improvements upshear, I suspect what is happening now is that column is trying to get vertical which should happen very soon, once it clears Cuba.

IMO...the environment ahead is the best environment an Atlantic tropical system has had since Michael. All systems are go, once it clears Cuba, for RI. Some indication I seen in previous runs of the COAMPS that suggests a potential period of explosive intensification once it gets over the loop current tomorrow afternoon.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still lopsided on satellite. I’d like to see the shear relax some more.

Once it clears Cuba that should happen, but it's definitely lopsided and that column is not quite vertical yet.

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

This thing is weak. Where is the doomsdays category 5 that is supposed to completely obliterate Tampa? 

Correction....Category 6.5 to the 3rd power

3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol love it

Your comment earlier about Idalia looking like trash garbage inspired greatness.

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Someone please start a banter thread to keep this one on topic 

Done, just created it.

Banter for Idalia