WxSynopsisDavid

Radar situation did not make this situation any better. Happened between 3 radar sites and none of them showed this storm well. Another case in point. Bottom picture was a split from a dual pane with CC. I initially circled the large CC swath that the radar was showing. I was spotting errors with the CC that could of been caused by the 4in hail. That’s why there was 2 areas I circled.

2 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Storm never had a radar or velocity signature that warranted a TORE. 

Noticeable radar hole, hard to tell either way

Looking at the traffic pattern in the area, roads are backing up for miles. Something indeed happened in swath from Rayenden, Imboden, College City. Likely a small tornado. Previous collage I posted on screen grabs are, again, a case study. Top picture was a shelf cloud reported as the large tornado. Bottom 2 pictures were screen grabs from a video going around Twitter that the media is sharing. That video is from December (thank you to MNstorms). Really think this situation needs to be assessed and reviewed by the NWS. Some serious changes need to happen going forward….inexcusable to throw a Tornado Energency for a scud bomb.  

So I found a few videos on Twitter and was able to take screen grabs. There is indeed a tornado, it was on the ground, and damage is already being reported. A few of you missed the point that this was wrapped in hail up to and exceeding 4in diameter. This prevents challenges to using CC and looking for the classic CC drops. Also, the area this tornado occurred you can pull from numerous polling sites. You just don’t get a great view of the storm no matter which one you use.

Now…..I don’t see a large tornado on the ground. So it’s obvious someone seen the shelf cloud and reported it as a large tornado. Other viewpoints showed it well and it was a rather small tornado. Really hope the NWS uses this as a case study to crack down on false reporting. Those people need to go back through skyward classes and need there spotter account revoked

7 hours ago, Chreeyiss said:

I’m not broad brushing that as rule in general, but for this particular setup, from what I’ve seen on the models, the cap looks like it prevents surface based instability from being fully utilized unless temps exceed about 66 degrees. I might be wrong, but it looks like that’s the main differentiator between central Texas and points further north in DFW where the shear profiles are at least as extreme. If I’m wrong on this though, I would love to learn more.

In a high shear/low cape environment, you don’t get substantial surface based instability anyways. That’s why the environment is identified as a high shear/low cape environment. Cape is low, meaning that surface based instability is lacking

11 hours ago, Chreeyiss said:

Looks like Tuesday has taken the title of biggest day instead of Monday, but Monday has very high potential too. The SRH values in north and central Texas Monday afternoon are absurd. Like 500-750m2/s2. However, if temps stay mid 60s or below during the afternoon across this area, the full potential probably won’t be realized

Disagree with temps. Your assumption applies to a high cape/low shear environment. You don’t need temps higher than the 60’s with high shear/low cape setups.

Did this thing bomb into the 960's yet or is it still 974mb?

@Jebmanso I just need to know…is there a benchmark to define what justifies a jebwalk? And is there a max to the benchmark? Would a blizzard like 1996 be too extreme for a jebwalk or would these heart breakers lately not warrant a jeb walk? Just curious as I have been lurking on the page for awhile and see references to the jebwalk

9 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Did I say anything about guidance? No. I said I've seen many Lows pass by this coastline and this one is much farther out than normal. Much farther out. A simple, basic fact. (And your response is an example of why I almost never post on this website.) If the 850 pulls it back in, great, I'm all for it ... but again I was only pointing out a peculiarity with the track at this latitude.

No you didn’t, but I mentioned guidances as reference to the fact that the forecast is on point and matches what the models had in terms of the track. Also, was not arguing you but rather stating a known fact, that current location for the center you are saying is waaaay offshore is not far enough east to stunt precip to the west. A low can be in that very exact spot and still be producing precip along the coast and points inland. Other factors come into play like they are tonight such as the phase, strong confluence, development of a double low, expansion to precip field, intensification, etc. This is not your normal low pressure system, so it’s current track will still produce nor is it hinging on influence with an 850 to come west. Also, I remember notable lows in the past that were farther to the east that still pounded the northeast…even hurricanes. Several nor’easters and let’s not forget Hurricane Sandy were farther east

Really at this stage of the game the models carry zero weight, they will often swing and miss concerning the mesoscale. Radar and satellite observations will be the go-to as we can toss the models in the can until next storm

6 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Hello from eastern N.C. I've seen a lot of Lows pass by down here but this one is waaaaaay offshore. Heck, it's running off the screen. I've a feeling this storm isn't going to pound the Mid-Atlantic coast with as much snow as people are thinking ... unless a team of wild horses pulls it back in.

 

Incorrect. That’s not waaaaay offshore. Every guidance I seen had the coastal about in that general area. What happens is the coastal develops a double low and along with the phase happening, the coastal storm gets pulled back west once it is paralleled to OBX. As it stands, everything is going as forecasted for the Delmarva into the northeast.

13 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Rain/snow mix in Lynchburg. Of course, no accumulations anywhere. 

If we are referring to Lynchburg, VA I was at the Sheetz on 460 in Bedford about 30min ago. That was a very quick change from just rain to a rain/snow mix

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Interesting, maybe the models will converge after the new data is in.

So does the data get ingested into those WxRisk maps DT been hard at work with? Asking for a friend

1 minute ago, mappy said:

omg stop posting his maps. i cannot take it.

My apologies, drinks on me

5 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

the guy that said its going to bust has been one of the two most pessimistic people on this board i've seen over the last few weeks.  Hes constantly calling bust. Just ignore

I know I been reading his post. At some point it becomes an annoyance. If he doesn’t know how to interpret radar and satellite imagery there’s enough of us in here that can teach him. But to scream bust with every storm, every setup, it gets old. Just stop looking at the model data and move on. Honestly that’s probably the issue, looking at model data in the present which conflicts with radar/satellite imagery.

Pretty negligent to be saying this is a bust when we aren’t even through 50% of the storm yet. Someone needs to learn how to look at radar and satellite imagery and calm down.

SREF ticked west again, west trend is continuing

Why does weather always seem to shaft Alabama? No pun intended lol

38 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Once DT shouts ALEET ALEET its gonna be a classic storm

Now we get his famous "2 and a quarter" first and final call maps along with his cluster f*** start time maps. I sense him making an emergency trip to his local Wal-Mart to stock up on crayons.

6z NAM at end of its range is still snowing. 8in of snow on the ground across south central VA into the middle peninsula. This is a healthy, tasty pre-game for the Saturday storm.

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Dt dial it back dude....https://twitter.com/WxriskUpAllNite/status/1483342568654098435?t=Cst4i91eH9PAiH6BEaGAFw&s=19

Well...we both know what's next. Those dreadful "2 and a quarter" first call maps and those horrendous start time maps that are a cluster f***.