magpiemaniac

Tornado on the ground in Tuscaloosa with the western cell.

Spectacular video from Brad Arnold right now.

7 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Anyone with a stream of the Tuscaloosa storm?

https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brad.arnold

15 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

I’ll go with the pros at SPC over Random Internet Contrarian Guy Who Seeks Attention.

The parameters and set up support a very significant and impactful event today.

Especially when said guy has no skin in the game.

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

What do you mean by better?  Better for creating severe weather or better as in less severe weather?

I wondered the same thing.  Better isn’t better if you’re filing an homeowner’s insurance claim.  I guess it’s “better” for the voyeurs.

5 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Ouch on both, talk about horrible timing

KFCX is back up.

20 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Routine maintenance?

KFCX had a hardware failure and they had to order a part.  Could be up as early as today.  KRAX is replacing a generator.  Likely down through tomorrow.

Both KRAX and KFCX are out.  Hope they’re up before the upcoming severe threat.  Bad timing.

36.9 this morning with 0.32” of rain overnight.  It’s about time.

18 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Will the SPC consider upgrading this to a "Moderate Risk"? The parameters seem pretty scary. I WON'T hold out for a "High" risk. We didn't even get that for the Easter 2020 Tornado Outbreak. 

EDIT: JP Dice on FOX 6 says winds & large hail are the greatest threats. James Spann on ABC 33/40 forecasts tornadoes as our biggest threat. Spann seems to think the SPC will raise us to a Moderate at some point. I just don't know when to expect the SPC's next update.

The next update should come out at 0730 UTC or 2:30 AM CDT.

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

More fantasy snow on 6Z GFS for March 29.  

Start the thread!  

For most of NC, the NAM and its high-res cousin are both pretty dry for the Mon/Tue rain event.  Not a lot of QPF.

No measurable rain IMBY since the 0.15” on March 1.  Last significant rain was 0.67” on February 26.  Beware asking for dry weather because you just might get it for good.  Maybe we’ll get something on Monday and/or Tuesday.

For northern Guilford near the county line, I measured 3.75” of snow over four light events (1.75”, 0.75”, 0.75”, 0.50”) and 0.50” of ice between two events (0.30”, 0.20”).  It’s embarrassing that I’ve resorted to totaling fractions of inches for snow.

5 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Yeah I agree but I think you had a couple of weenies thinking this had a good shot just because it always trends NW.  today’s supposed rain actually trended SE.  Gfs looks pretty dry the next 10 days . 

No.  This idea of this thread had nothing to do with irrational exuberance.  Posters realized this storm was a Hail Mary going into spring.  This thread was a tongue-in-cheek experiment to see if we could change the apparent jinx of how storm threads are started.  Please don’t read more into it than what’s there.

Oh, so now the models decide to be consistent.  Where was all this run after run consistency in January and February?

Just wait, y’all.  This thing is going to slingshot northward any second now.  Y’all just wait and see.  



 

27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Kinda ironic that suppression only becomes a problem when march rolls around

Exactly.  We’ve been cheering for suppression, but this thing needs to “un-suppress” eventually.

1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

Once this weekend uneventfully passes, you guys need to seek help immediately.  This winter is going to scar a lot of folks.  I'm going back to my previously scheduled mild and rainy spring where the weeds are already ankle high.  

No way, man.  I’m racking up the faux snow this year.  Up to four feet now.  Check out the end of the GFS run.

4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

ok

 

have at it 

 

So help me, if you dump on the idea of creating a premature thread, go off and create a thread anyway, and then the storm of the century happens, you had better not take credit for it.  

46 minutes ago, WSchew said:

Considering this is likely our last threat to track, why don’t we try something different? What say we start a thread absurdly early (like today) to circumvent any conspiracies surrounding when it’s created?

It’s honestly not a bad idea since it’s probably our last hurrah.    Good way to go out before grilling amid the tornadoes.

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

FWIW , the 12z GFS was still suppressed but continued the North Trend from 6Z... 

And the para’s low was mostly unchanged since the last run.  That’s probably a good thing since we don’t want it zipping northward so early.

Yikes. Twenty hours since the last post.  I’m liking the slow northern trend of the low this weekend.  It’s Monday though.  It could be in Maryland by Thursday.

The para says next weekend is still in play.  Sort of.