magpiemaniac

Creators of call maps seem to get lazy when it comes go forecasting anything 100 miles beyond their hometown.  Understandable and natural of course, but don't pretend you're making a regional forecast when you're only really focused on your own backyard.

I don't envy the mets at the Peachtree City NWS office right now.  They must be flustered.

If I get the 12z GFS bufkit of 10.8" for GSO, I'm cashing out with a bang and will start celebrating our forthcoming spring.  But I don't put much stock into bufkit estimates.  I'll be shocked if I get half of that.

It's like a funeral in the event thread.  Start playing a funeral dirge.

Everyone is speechless.

Darn it.  We need to make weather modeling great again.  (Was it ever though?)

There still seems to a lack of consensus.  12z Euro says, "No snow for you, Georgia."  Several days ago, people cheering for one model will be now cheering for another and vice versa.  What a strange storm.

1 minute ago, packbacker said:

We didn't want snow anyways...the ground temps would have ruined everything...

And the tree canopy.  Don't forget the trees.

Man, whoever can perfectly balance temps/QPF/ratios on a razor's edge for this event should do really well.  It's almost a zero sum game for this storm.

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We finally have a major SE winter storm on imminent and this place is a graveyard!

They're all making a bread and milk run.

18 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

Can't wait for the forum reactions tomorrow when the models shift to a CLT-GSO-RIC special.  

Bump.

Widre is AmericanWX's version of the chorus in a Greek tragedy.  He tries to warn us about the potential potholes along the road to our blissful winter wonderland and is sometimes right.  Those of us who are irrationally exuberant often don't like to hear it though.

I'm liking the 18z GFS expanded precip field, but I'm not buying those higher snow totals. It'll take another run or two before I bite. And even then...

3 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

That's not funny, because that will probably happen. 

Or maybe it IS funny, because of the same reason.

It's gonna be a long 48 hours...

 

I'm not expecting that to happen. I'm really okay with most any scenario benefit our neighbors to my south as long as I get 1"-2".  Just please, Lord, don't turn this into a DC/Maryland winter wonderland.

Can't wait for the forum reactions tomorrow when the models shift to a CLT-GSO-RIC special.  

The people in Boone have to drive to Elizabeth City for a good snow. 

Just now, southernskimmer said:

I like where we are in GSO sitting NW of the bullseye to be honest. I have a good feeling about this one. 

I'm confident that we might get 1"-2" out of this. Not quite sold yet that we can get more that 4".

Current trend:

"I really like the GFS right now. It's been very consistent. I've always been a fan of it," says the guy from Atlanta.  "The Euro has been so consistent. Such a great model. I expect it to verify," says the guy from Newport News.

As if any of us have a clue.

So unless things change really quickly, this will be a cage match to the death between competing models.  I don't recall such spread this close to zero hour.  We all have personal interests in how this plays out, but it'll be interesting regardless.

In fairness, I have seen over the past six years banter-like comments in the disco thread that added nothing to our understanding, but they were left intact. Then you'll get a pertinent question or comment from someone and the reaction is almost "STFU, dude! Just decipher the vague tea leaves in the event thread!"

Got to see my first snow of the winter in Weaverville, NC!

Fellow beardsman! I've had one for years. They'll bury me with it.