magpiemaniac

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Unusually aggressive for RAH

I thought so, too, considering their track record of holding their cards close until the last second.

Currently 39.9/39.9 with a morning low of 34.2.  I’ve had 3.76” of rain since Thursday not including Saturday’s ice.  I’d like some sun today and tomorrow before Thursday’s icepocalypse.

We can hope that rates limit ice accretion to some degree and maybe—just maybe—the weakest limbs fell this past weekend.  I bet the hardware stores will be zoos today and tomorrow with people looking for generators.

The WPC has my freezing rain/ice forecast percentages for Thursday as:

• 80% for >0.10”
• 60% for >0.25”
• 30% for >0.50”
• 5% for >1.00”

I’m ready for spring.  

Go ahead and have the power company on speed dial because Thursday isn’t looking so good.

From RAH early this morning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
357 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

NCZ007-021-022-162100-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0002.210218T0500Z-210219T0500Z/
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-
Including the cities of Roxboro, Winston-Salem, Greensboro,
and High Point
357 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of at
  least one quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Person, Forsyth and Guilford Counties.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

These are the sort of model runs that keep Duke Energy engineers up at night.

Canes are s***ing the bed tonight, so maybe I should talk about the weather.

Edit:  I take back what I said.  Canes changed the sheets and kicked butt after a slow shart.

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I’m moving to Cancun. They have a better chance of seeing snow than I do.

Don’t eat the snow cream.

My sister in middle TN called our mother in east TN to tell her that she was going to get “2 to 3 inches of ice” today.  Because my mother was concerned, I told her that she probably meant sleet instead of freezing rain.  I’m not sure my sister knows the difference.

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The western Dakotas are even angrier 

I have a friend who lives in SD.  He’s delighted.  

Nope.  Don’t want.  

7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Nope. Nope. Nope

I don’t think I’m in the mood for this again after yesterday.  RAH’s discussion from this morning:

“The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature variably to mostly cloudy and cool conditions on Wed, with a
combination of stratocumulus in nely flow and increasing mid-high
level moisture in swly flow aloft. Low/mid-level warm air advection
will then rapidly strengthen overnight-early Thu, preceding the
aforementioned deamplifying shortwave trough and atop the cold air
damming surface ridge. Rain, another widespread soaker with over an
inch QPF, will consequently develop nwd and become widespread
overnight into Thu morning. And with the surface wet bulb freezing
line likely in the vicinity of the I-85 corridor Thu morning,
another episode of freezing rain appears likely over the
climatologically-favored nw Piedmont. Any such freezing rain would
be self-limiting and change over to a cold rain by late morning to
midday, given that the parent high will be in the process of
retreating through ON. Strong stability within the cold air damming
regime will be resistant to erosion, however, so high temperatures
on Thu will likely be much cooler than national blended guidance,
likely ranging from upr 30s and 40s over the Piedmont, to 50s (or
possibly some 60s) over the srn Coastal Plain.“

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Surprised no one is talking about the next ICE Threat next Thursday.  Although it looks like an ICE TO RAIN scenario, there could be significant ICE again for the same areas that just got this one

And like today, RAH will issue a WSW after the ice has knocked out power to tens of thousands. 

It’s back on, hallelujah!

Spectrum says we might not have internet and cable until Tuesday.

Oh, the humanity.

30% of Duke Energy customers in Guilford County are without power.

Northern Guilford at the Rockingham county line has been clobbered. Outages everywhere. I’m at 0.30” and large limbs have fallen.  Roads are fine.

Duke didn’t sound optimistic that power would be restored anytime soon.

Thankfully, I had the propane topped off two weeks ago.  I can go a good bit on the generator.

My neighbor’s backyard looks like he’s starting a sawmill.  Huge limbs down everywhere.  My yard isn’t as bad.

My power and internet have been out for a couple of hours now.  Barely able to post with cellular internet.  (Don’t get me started about AT&T.)

Generac is running, but the fuel costs are adding up in the head.

RAH staff really need to revisit how they handled this event.  They completely blew off the RHHH and NAM.  Kudos to Tim Buckley for talking about this early and warning people.

My power went off, the generator kicked on, and two minutes later, Duke turned back on.  It’s really wanting to go out.

I’m in the middle of this map at 31.8 and still with power.

6 minutes ago, norcarolinian said:

WSW now for Guilford, Forsyth, and Warren.

2 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

Late to the party i guess this will be the only one that verifies...

Talk about rubbing salt into the wound.  RAH beats all.  They issue a WSW after the worst of the event.

Current power outage percentages by county:

• Person - 46.1%
• Caswell - 36.1%
• Guilford - 20.7%
• Rockingham - 19.4%
• Granville - 16.0%
• Forsyth - 10.6%
• Stokes - 3.8%

And my power just now flickered off and back on.    Still at 31.8 here at the house.

Still at 31.8.  According to the Duke outage map, I’m surrounded by outages.  My power is still going.  Clean living I guess.

Guilford up to 45,467 outages.

Temp/dp at 31.8/31.8 right now.  Still have power. Like kvegas said, calm winds have helped.  Guilford has 27,908 without power though.

We might have dodged the worst.  Maybe FedEx will deliver my wife Valentine’s Day gift today after all.