MJO812

Moderate sleet with temp of 27 in Brooklyn. Very icy outside

Gfs has a few events to watch

Still 26 here in brooklyn

How are you done in Manhattan ? Still snowing here in brooklyn.

Down to 25 degrees with moderate snow

Where?

SOI came in this morning at -23

Look at last March Plenty of time

Looks like 7-730arrival

Uh? The precip is about an hour away.

Precip is very close

Yes

Rgem shows 2-4 inches for NYC Snows from 6am -1pm Good improvement

Dew points are on the rise right now

Might be a good sign. We shall see.

Pattern looks favorable

Radar looks good. Precip starting early ?

Because this period might be ?

This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum Brooklynwx "The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases." 1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada. This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame: There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase." 2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition.  Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. "

This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum Brooklynwx "The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases." 1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada. This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame: There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase." 2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition.  Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. "

This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum Brooklynwx "The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases." 1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada. This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame: There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase." 2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition.  Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. "

Read their afd They are expecting heavy snow rates

Nam barely has any snow but a lot of sleet.

Off-topic but pars gfs has 4 snow events within 2 weeks lol

Dew points are low and precip is already racing east.