George001

Yep I absolutely am. I don’t buy the se trend at all due to the se ridge and the strength of the La Niña. As is even if we only got .50-.75 in liquid like many models are saying that would pile up fast due to the the cold upper levels of the atmosphere increasing the snow ratios. Dynamics will not be a problem with a massive amount of jet energy ramming well inland reminiscent of the Superbowl Sunday storm. In that storm my area got approximately .5 liquid equivalent and a foot of snow, meaning the models weren’t even wrong with the precip, the snow output busted because the ratios were more like 20-25:1 rather than 10:1. I expect the models to correct back NW, not a lot, but just enough to get heavy snows back into Worcester and even western mass. 16-20 jackpot isn’t a huge stretch considering when accounting for ratios we would probably be getting around 12-15 anyways if that nam run came to verify. I love where we are right now for the Friday storm, I am much more confident than I was a few days out when the gfs was snowing a snowstorm but the other models were showing snow to mix. In this pattern, the risk is rain like we got today not a miss to the south.

In my opinion we will see around quadruple those numbers, euro isn’t by any means bad (it has 6-8 inches using kuchera which I think is underdone looking at the dynamics and temps), Canadian is extremely close to blizzard conditions in eastern mass, and the navy has over 30 hours of snow.

I stand corrected, the 240 hours looks good but when rolled forward the european guidance seems to want to end the good pattern and go nuts with the se ridge. Do you have the map for the upper latitudes as well? The location of the polar vortex is key to whether this is just a quick warmup or an early spring. I thought for sure that 240 hour look would get even better as we went into early March.

I have a question in regards to enso state and how favorable each enso state is for snowfall. I know the mid Atlantic prefers moderate and strong ninos, and areas like northern Maine prefer strong ninas, but what about southern new England? There are some risks associated with both ninos and ninas, but i would think overall ninas are more favorable due to our latitude protecting us from the se ridge to an extent.

This looks really good for us, somewhat similar to what I described in my post in regards to my March forecast. It looks like a piece of the polar vortex broke off from the main central-western Canada lobe and is chilling in eastern Canada, which is our cold source. Then to the southeast you have a La Niña induced southeast ridge, with a gradient between that will create a boundary. There is also energy coming into the west coast, which looks like it will move across the country and try to cut into Ohio due to the southeast ridge, but will be forced to redevelop underneath the polar vortex lobe in southeast Canada. The storms look to weaken in the Midwest and redevelop somewhere off the SE Jersey coast where the boundary is. DC will likely get screwed and Philly looks to be on the edge due to the Miller bs developing too late for them. Looking at where the gradient is this appears to be the type of pattern where NYC north gets hammered. This looks a lot better than it did a week ago and gives me confidence that I have the right idea as we head into March.

If anything this is the type of pattern you would see in a record strong La Niña with the pacific cooled off so much that arctic air doesn’t modify much if at all before reaching Texas. I should have specified southEAST states being well above avg, there is a lot of cold in the southwest right now.

Euro looks to still have the Miller b for the 23rd, though it’s a bit too far north this run.

Another factor in me leaning towards a higher impact event is the pattern we are in. We are in a full fledged La Niña pattern with a cold Canada and SE ridge brining well above normal temps to the southern states. With the SE ridge in place this storm can only go so far south. In this type of pattern I have no problem with the models having the bullseye a bit south of us.

Fair point, but in a setup like this with cold upper levels as well as surface, and strong jet dynamics, I would lean towards even those kuchera maps being underdone like they were during the Superbowl storm. There is tons of jet energy with this system, which leads me to believe that the models are underestimating the precip from the storm.

This is one of the drier runs yet when using kuchera it still gives 6-8 inches of snow. As long as it doesn’t trend that’s a good sign that the euro is still giving us 6-8 inches during a weaker run. It needs some work, but it’s not far from something much better.

how come the euro is so dry? That’s kinda concerning, hopefully just a blip run.

One thing I learned is the snow maps are often wrong. If it’s cold enough the snow will be fluffier and we will get more snow than the maps are saying, where in more marginal setups where it’s warmer then it will be a heavy wet snow with less snow than the maps are saying. This storm appears to fall into the former camp, with temps dropping to the 20s during the storm. If the models have 6-80 inches of snow with temps in the 20s, I would double that and make a forecast. I’m going to stick to my earlier forecast with 12-15 in the Boston area and more to the NW.

Canadian appears to have moved in that direction as well, it was originally modeled as a fast mover with a more limited ceiling just yesterday but all of a sudden new lows came out of nowhere. Instead of this being one low it’s 2-3 lows, which increases the duration and total snowfall. While this isn’t a blizzard with rapid accumulations, it appears to be 30+ hours of moderate snow which can and will produce significant snowfall. We had one storm like that in feb 2015 that led to 2 feet of snow in the Boston area.

Yeah guidance is all over the place right now, it going north of us is very possible. Hell some models like the navy don’t even have a low, which is concerning. I personally think this storm more than likely will miss because right now it doesn’t have enough support on the models, but i am still keeping an eye on it because despite being lower probability right now, if it does trend in the right direction we could be talking feet.

With the 22nd Miller b threat it appears the key to that storm is how quickly does the offshore low develop before bombing out and moving to the northeast. Right now, the european guidance redevelops the low farther south and is a more favorable track for significant snow. However other guidance is redeveloping the low too far north, so we rain. The question is what is right? In my opinion the european guidance has the right idea in redeveloping the low farther south, as is it has around 10 inches of snow in eastern mass. However, if it digs a little more and we get the entire evolution a bit farther south, that would give the low more time to bomb out as it approaches our latitude, which would increase both the precip and winds over the area. It is too early for a forecast, but this one has an extremely high ceiling, much higher than even the Friday storm which appears to be quite significant and is trending in the right direction, and is also a Miller b.

Of Boston’s top 10 snowstorms how many of them were miller As and how many were Miller Bs? I know the blizzard of 78, Jan 2015 blizzard, Feb 2013 blizzard, and the Jan 2005 blizzard were all Miller bs but I’m not sure about the other ones on this list. https://www.wbur.org/news/2015/01/26/boston-biggest-snowstorms

The euro improved for both the Friday Storm and the following Tuesday. It has half a foot on Friday, and It looks to have a Miller b the following Tuesday. For the Tuesday storm it has a low transfer from Ohio off the coast, strengthening into a 995mb low right over Nantucket. This could lead to blizzard conditions if things trend in the right direction over the next few days.

How do the snow maps look for the new euro run? I don’t have access to them.

Hopefully we can get the euro on board tonight

I am a believer in this patterns potential to break records. We have already seen some unusual things with 9 inches of snow in Seattle, temps in the teens and single digits in Texas, a 3-4 inch snowstorm in DALLAS with another one coming. This pattern is an extreme and record breaking pattern, if any pattern can break snowfall records in March, it’s this one. We have already seen that when compared to the last 2 winters that this one is built different. That said, if I’m right we will far exceed those 80-90 totals. We will get that in March alone if my forecast is correct, so I will have to adjust that upwards.

Isn’t it more of a Miller b? When I looked at the models I saw 2 lows, one in the mid west and one off the coast. Newer runs appear to be strengthening the low offshore more with a weaker Midwest low.

thanks for the welcome guys, I’m happy to be here and look forward to learning and getting better at making forecasts. Hopefully we can get multiple Miller bs before the end of winter to track!

The navy is a great model, it’s extremely underrated in my opinion. My biggest forecast busts are when I ignore the navy because it’s not showing what I want. My best forecasts come when I blend the navy euro and Canadian.

I was confident, but then I busted because I overestimated the strength of the low multiple times in earlier storms.

I’m just gonna be straight with you guys and tell you, I’m as much of a weenie as it gets and can get carried away with my forecasts sometimes, which has led to me getting muted on the other forum. I want to make sure that doesn’t happen again here so I wanted to ask if there are any guidelines I should follow to avoid that. By the way, while I’m not carried away over a specific model run, I’ll give you guys some advice on how the George model works. Take my forecasts and cut them in half (take 1/3rd of my snow forecasts if it’s a Miller b), and then take the output.